The Northern Trust – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

TPC Boston – Boston, MA

Course Breakdown

7216 yd. Par 71, 3 par 5s (2 are reachable by the full field), 4 par 3s, wide tree lined fairways, easy to hit fairways (66%), bunkers and mounds if players miss, rough shouldn’t be too thick or much of a factor, trees and tall fescue on wild misses, average sized and easy to hit (66%), firm, very fast bentgrass greens that are fairly flat with some undulation, some greens are elevated and multitiered with a good amount of slope, could be a birdiefest especially with softer conditions, bombers have an advantage but the shorter hitters could still play well here

Tournament Notes

  • First of the 3 events of the FedEx Cup playoffs
  • Formerly hosted the Dell Technologies Championship/Deutsche Bank Championship from 2003-2018
  • Top 70 in FedEx Cup ranking move on to the BMW Championship next week
  • Every winner here since 2007, has been in the T45 in SG: T2G for the year
  • 7 of the last 12 winners here since 2007 were inside the top 3 in SG: T2G for the year
  • ~35% of all golfers finishing in the T3 here since 2007, were T15 in SG: Approach for the year
  • Every winner here since 2007 has been in the T25 in Par 5 scoring for the year
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were T6 in Par 5 scoring for the year
  • 5 of the last 6 winners were in T20 in Proximity from 200+ yds for the year
  • Par 5 scoring is twice as important than Par 4 or Par 3 scoring
  • Last cut event of the season

Key Stats

SG Approach, SG: T2G, Par 5 Scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds, 150-175 yds

Corollary Courses

TPC Sawgrass (The PLAYERS)

Field

Top 125 players in the FedEx Cup rankings

Defending Champion (Liberty National GC): Patrick Reed (-16)

Runner Up Last Year: Abraham Ancer (-15)

Defending Champion Here (2018): Bryson DeChambeau (-16)

Runner Up (2018): Justin Rose (-14)

One and Done: Tony Finau

Alternate: Daniel Berger

One and Done Considerations: JT, Bryson, Xander, Finau, Berger

Players

Bryson: 11100: +950 – 1st in SG: Total, 1st in SG: OTT, 4th in Ballstriking, 9th in SG: T2G, 7th in short game, 2nd in putting, 1st in DK points, has been shitty on approach lately and shitty around the green, has won playoff events before including here the last time TPC Boston hosted an event

JT: 11300: +1000 – 2nd in SG: Total, 1st in Approach, 1st in SG: T2G, 1st in Ballstriking, 4th in SG: ATG, 7th in DK pts, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 10th in opportunities gained

Xander: 9700: +1575 – Wins big events, 7th in SG: T2G, 3rd in SG: OTT, 15th in Ballstriking, 13th in short game, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 5 scoring, 2nd in DK pts

Berger: 8900: +2500 – Has been playing great lately, 4th in SG: T2G, 12th in Approach, 9th in short game, 22nd in SG: OTT, 17th in SG: ATG, 15th in putting, 7th in DK pts, 2nd in Par 4 scoring

Finau: 8800: +2700 – I still don’t see him winning since he can’t close a tournament but great DK value, T4 here in 2018, 13th in SG: T2G, 12th in SG: OTT, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Par 5 scoring, 3rd in DK pts

Norlander: 6600: +5000 – 2nd in Approach, 5th in Par 4 scoring, I really like his value on DK under 7k

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Higher chance at a 3 birdie streak on DK if you have guys starting on the back 9 since 17, 18, 1 and 2 are some of the easiest holes on the course all with around a 20% birdie rate

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