BMW Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

Olympia Fields Country Club, North Course – Chicago, IL

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7343 yds, average to narrow tree lined fairways with large bunkers in the landing areas, 8-12 yd of rough between the fairways and trees, only subtle doglegs on some holes so guys should be able to crush driver, greens are tough to roll up to and a lot have large deep front side bunkers, small elevated bluegrass greens (between poa and bentgrass) that slope heavily from back to front

Tournament Notes

  • 2nd event of the FedEx Cup playoffs
  • After this week, the Top 30 in FedEx Cup standings advance to East Lake for the Tour Championship with starting strokes based on seeding
  • Olympia Fields last hosted the 2015 US Amateur Match Play (won by Bryson) and 2003 US Open
  • Historically, the BMW Championship has been set up to play pretty easy on major courses with the last 5 winners at -20 or better
  • No cut event
  • In 50,000 simulations, 100% of golfers currently ranked 1-20 advanced to East Lake and 99.95% ranked 21-23 advanced, really only leaving 7 spots up for grabs to move on to the Tour Championship next week (as per simulation from datagolf)
  • Form matters in the FedEx Cup Playoffs

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: OTT, SG: T2G

Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yds

Corollary Courses

TPC Harding Park, Bethpage Black (but set up much easier than both of those courses)

Field

Top 70 in FedEx Cup Rankings

Defending Champion (Medinah): Justin Thomas (-25)

Runner Up Last Year (Medinah): Patrick Cantlay (-22)

One and Done: Collin Morikawa

Alternate: Matthew Wolff

One and Done Considerations: Any superstars left

Players

DJ: 11500: +950 – Obliterated the field last week in Boston, crushes it off the tee and significantly led the field in SG: T2G, could easily win 2 in a row in the FedEx Cup playoffs, 4th in proximity from 200 yds+

Berger: 9700: +1600 – 20th in SG: OTT, 21st in Approach, 11th in SG: ATG, 7th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, has been fantastic since the restart

Morikawa: 9500: +1600 – 8th in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 13th in proximity from 175-200 yds, 7th in proximity from 200+ yds, 6th in proximity from 150-175 yds

Wolff: 8200: +3200 – Won here in college, 8th in SG: OTT, 10th in Approach, 5th in proximity 175-200 yds, 18th in proximity 150-175 yds

Hovland: 8100: +3200 – 4th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT

Niemann: 7100: +5000 – I like his price this cheap on DK, 5th in Approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 10th in proximity 150-175 yds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Play this like a WGC event with no cut and a stacked field
  • Prices are pretty high on everyone because of the small field in the betting market

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