The Masters – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

The Masters, a tradition unlike any other. It’s finally here, after MONTHS of a delay due to the coronavirus pandemic, we finally get the absolute best week of golf every year to close out the golf season for 2020. I couldn’t be more excited for this tournament and hope its fantastic.

Augusta National Golf Club – Augusta, GA
“A tradition unlike any other”

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7435 yds (plays a bit longer), avg. 65 sq. ft. firm and FAST multi-tiered bent grass greens with a ton of undulation, lush fairways with a lot of undulation which leads to the course playing longer than it is, 41 bunkers, 6 water hazards, rye grass, almost no rough, soft pine straw that you could hit out of as long as you don’t have a tree in the way, 13/14 par 4’s: you’re hitting driver, lots of changes in elevation on the course, experience here matters, first timers don’t win here, bombers have an advantage, right to left draw ball flight works best here (comes naturally for leftys, Spieth draws the ball well also). Easy to hit fairways (~69%), hard to hit greens vs. tour average (~61%),  greens are above average in size but that is misleading since most greens slope heavily from back to front with difficult landing areas, Augusta has aerated greens and some fairways with a ton of drainage on the course, rain doesn’t effect it and isn’t much of a factor here like it usually is on other courses on tour although it has had to be watered more this year because of the time of the year

Tournament Notes

  • Typically this is the first major of the year in the Spring, but it was postponed this year  due to the coronavirus pandemic
  • This year the cutline changed from Top 50 and ties and anyone within 10 strokes of the lead to just Top 50 and ties
  • There will also be split tee times this year unlike other years due to the time of the year the tournament is running
  • Course history affects play at Augusta more than any other course on tour
  • Players to lead the Masters in SG: Approach the last 5 years have finished 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 1st
  • No winner has come from outside 50:1 odds in the last 8 years
  • Last 7 Masters, the winner has had a win or 2 Top 5s in their five events leading up to Augusta, this year that fits: Bryson, Rahm, JT, Rory, DJ, Xander, Cantlay, Reed, Bubba, Hatton, Webb, Finau, Wolff, Kokrak, Poulter
  • No winner has repeated since Tiger in 2002 (along with Nick Faldo and Jack)
  • Jack was oldest player to ever win the Masters, at 46 years old
  • Last 20 Masters winners have made the cut the previous year (since Tiger in 1997)
  • The last time a first timer won the Masters was in 1979 (Fuzzy Zoeller)
  • The last 7 winners gained minimum of 13.4 strokes T2G in their two prior events leading up to their victory at Augusta
  • 6 of the last 8 winners were inside the Top 7 in SG: T2G leading up to the Masters

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: T2G, SG: OTT

Main proximity distance range: 150-200 yds (but a lot of elevation changes here make that not as accurate as other courses)

Corollary Courses

  • Emirates Golf Club (Omega Dubai Desert Challenge) – Danny Willett and Sergio won this and the Masters in the same year
  • Riviera CC (Genesis Open)
  • Quail Hallow Club (Wells Fargo Championship)
  • Correlated courses are not as much of a factor that I’ll be looking at with so much course history at Augusta

Field

91 Golfers

Smallest field for a major and you could cut out a good 20-30 players (Sr. past champs etc.) that just aren’t gonna win – It doesn’t matter that Bernhard Langer is the #1 Sr. in the world…he’s not winning the fucking Masters

Cut: Top 50 and ties

Defending Champion: Tiger Woods (-13)

Runner Up Last Year: Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele, Dustin Johnson (-12)

One and Done: Tiger Woods (I’m already out of it so this is purely as a fan since I could pick the winner and still be out of the money in my big One and Done pool, there’s zero chance I think he wins, as much as I’d love him to)

Alternate: Phil Mickelson (see above)

One and Done Considerations: Bryson, DJ

Players

Bryson: 11200: +750 – I think Bryson wins but the stats don’t really support it as much as the narrative does, hits the ball by far the longest on tour, 3rd in SG: OTT, 12th in SG: T2G, 8th in Par 4 scoring, 5th in Par 5 scoring

DJ: 10000: +850 – World #1, last 5 events: T2,T6,1,2,1, 1st in Approach, 1st in SG: T2G, 4th in SG: OTT, 10th in putting, 13th in SG: ATG, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, last 5 years here: T2,T10,T4,T6, good savings on Draftkings vs. Bryson’s price

Xander: 9800: +1400 – Has won big events before, T2 here last year, on fire lately, 6th in SG: T2G, 14th in SG: OTT, 15th in SG: Approach, 11th in SG: ATG, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, T7 in Ballstriking on the season

Hideki: 8700: +2500 – T2 last week in Houston, decent history here but nothing fantastic, 5th in SG: T2G, 14th in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 2nd in SG: ATG, T10 in Par 4 efficiency 450-500 yds, T15 in proximity 150-175 yds

Bubba: 9000: +3000 – 2012 and 2014 champion, has been playing pretty well lately, 2nd in SG: T2G, 6th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 14th in SG: ATG, T21 in proximity 150-175 yds,

Webb: 9300: +3300 – 15th in SG: T2G, 13th in SG: OTT, 4th in SG: ATG, T7 in Ballstriking on the season, not great at Approach in the last 20 rounds, 1st in Par 4 scoring, T5 here last year

Kokrak: 7000: +8000 – Surprisingly lines up nicely stats wise, 8th in SG: OTT, 14th in SG: T2G, 17th in Approach, 2nd in putting, T19 in proximity 150-175 yds, coming off a T17 at the Zozo and a win at the CJ Cup

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • A lot of the dumb ass general public that normally doesn’t play DFS golf will be playing this week, which will inflate ownership % for bigger names but also give an advantage over the field ESPECIALLY since there’s a lot of football money in Draftkings
  • May want to leave salary cap on the table
  • Need to get 6/6 in the cut at a minimum to cash, need to hit 6 T10s to win big and the winner
  • Making cuts here should not be a factor in lineup construction and will almost play closer to a no cut event on DK
  • Need scoring pts as well as placing pts.

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