Sony Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Last week we started the year with the first PGA tournament, the Sentry Tournament of Champions. I had a pretty good week with my 3 guys coming 2nd (in a playoff), 3rd and T7. Not bad for the first event of the year. This week we’re still in Hawaii for the Sony Open, the first full field event of the year.

Wai’alae Country Club – Honolulu, Hawaii

Course Breakdown

7044 yd. Par 70, resort course, winning score should be around -20, lowest driving accuracy course on tour but isn’t really a factor here at all, guys could still go real low with crappy driving accuracy, both Par 5s can easily be eagle’d by all which are the 2 easiest Par 5s on tour, 4th most eagles here of every course on tour despite only having 2 Par 5s, all Par 3s under 200 yds, off the tee golfers will see tree lined fairways that are firm, flat and fast, rough isn’t very high but could get thick and gnarly to hit out of with bad lies, bunkers on a few fairways and water is in play on 2 holes, average sized, firm and flat Bermuda greens that are well protected by deep bunkers and the rough around the greens is a lot tougher than off the fairways, wind could play a big factor but as long as the wind is down its a birdiefest

Tournament Notes

  • First event of the 2021 One and Done season!
  • First full field event of the year with a cut (Top 65 and ties)
  • 6 of the past 8 winners (15 of last 21) played at the Tournament of Champions the year before (Cam Smith and Russell Henley were the only ones, Henley was also the 1st player since the 1970 to win their first time there)
  • Prior to Cam Smith last year, the last 9 winners prior had a T6 in one of their last 3 starts before this tourney

Key Stats

SG Approach, Ballstriking, Par 4 scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds, 175-200 yds

Corollary Courses

  • El Camaleon Golf Club (Mayakoba Golf Classic)
  • Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (Sentry Tournament of Champions)

Field

144 golfers – Strongest field at this event since 2005, but no stars besides Webb

Defending Champion: Cam Smith (-11 in playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Brendan Steele (-11)

One and Done: Russell Henley

Alternate: Ryan Palmer

One and Done Considerations: Morikawa, Berger, Palmer, Henley

Players

Morikawa: 10600: +1200 – T21 here last year, T7 last week after imploding on Sunday, 3rd in approach, 2nd in ballstriking, 9th in SG: OTT, 3rd in opportunities gained, 3rd in good drives (fantasy national stat), 11th in Par 3 scoring, 22nd in DK pts

Berger: 10000: +1800 – Never missed a cut here, 10th last week, 6th in approach, 5th in SG: T2G, 6th in ballstriking, 4th in short game, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 8th in good drives (fantasy national stat), 3rd in SG: putting, 15th in SG: OTT, 16th in Par 3 scoring, 22nd in Par 5 scoring, 3rd in DK pts

Palmer: 9200: +2800 – 4th last week and 4th in SG: Approach last week, 4th here last year, 13th in SG: T2G, 17th in ballstriking, 20th in approach, 27 in SG: ATG, 12th in DK pts, 22nd in Par 4 scoring, 27th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 14th in opportunities gained, 8th in Par 5 scoring

Kisner: 8800: +2800 – 3 T5s in here in the last 5 years, 24th in approach, 4th in SG: putting (which I typically don’t put much stock in), 17th in short game

Henley: 8700: +3000 – Other than two T20s he’s got pretty shitty course history here but the stats love him, 1st in Approach,  1st in SG: T2G, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 5th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 1st in opportunities gained, 1st in Par 3 scoring, 6th in good drives (fantasy national stat), 1st in ballstriking, 24th in DK scoring, 30th in SG: ATG, 33rd in SG: OTT

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • On Draftkings showdown slates, guys that start on the front 9 have an easier chance at getting 3+ birdie streaks

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