Waste Management Phoenix Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) – Phoenix, AZ
“The Greatest Show on Grass”

Course Breakdown

7266 yd. Par 71, only 3 water hazards on the course in play on 6-7 holes, all 3 Par 5s are reachable in 2 by a majority of golfers, off the tee golfers will see narrow landing areas with bunkers placed strategically, lot of roll out from tee shots, large misses could land in desert vegetation, rough around the fairways isn’t too penal and golfers should still be able to hit good approach shots, with elevation drives and approaches will go farther, Bermuda grass, bunkers guarding most greens, greens are relatively flat, firm and fast in a large variety of sizes, course has longest driving distance average on tour (besides Mexico, averaging 293 yds vs. 281 tour average), scrambling and GIR % are higher than tour average where fairways gained is lower than tour average (so missing the fairways doesn’t matter much) 

Tournament Notes

  • Typically the biggest party in golf and the crowd is usually a big factor here, this year with coronavirus regulations, they’ll be limited to only around 5000 fans per day (vs. the 500k for the week on a usual year)
  • My favorite non-major of the year
  • A shitty finish at the Farmers hasn’t really been too detrimental to the top of the leaderboard here historically the next week
  • 9 of the last 10 winners here had a T5 in one of their previous 5 events
  • Since 2000, only 8 54 hole leaders went on to win and only 2 since 2009 (Phil in 2013 and Rickie in 2019)
  • 19 of the last 29 players in the last 4 years that finished T5 here played Torrey the week before, 7 of them had MC’d at Torrey, 6 had made cut but finished outside T30 at Torrey, only Tony Finau and Bubba Watson last year finished T10 or better at Torrey the week before in that span of time (both T6)

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: OTT, Par 5 scoring, Par 4 scoring (450-500 yds, where 7 Par 4s are)

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds

Field

Loaded field with 5 of the top 10 players in the world and 21 of the top 50

Defending Champion: Webb Simpson (-17 in a playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Tony Finau (-17)

One and Done: Justin Thomas

Alternate: Hideki Matsuyama

One and Done Considerations: JT, Hideki

Players

Justin Thomas: 10800: +800 – T3,3,T17 the last 3 years here, 2nd in approach, 2nd in SG: ARG, 1st in opportunities gained, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 12th in Par 4 scoring (450-500 yds), 11th in Par 5 scoring, 19th in SG: OTT, 23rd in eagles 

Hideki Matsuyama: 9800: +2000 – 2nd in SG: Total here over the last 5 years with T16,T15,WD,1,1 finishes, has played 24/25 rounds here in his career under par, 28th in approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 4th in SG: ARG, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 23rd in Par 4 scoring (450-500 yds), 26th in Par 5 scoring

Daniel Berger: 9600: +2000 – T9,MC,T11,7 last 4 years here, 12th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 5 scoring, 29th in Par 4 scoring (450-500 yds)

Corey Conners: 7900: +6600 – Made the cut here last year, 15th in approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 17th in opportunities gained, 20th in Par 4 scoring, 24th in Par 5 scoring

Sam Burns: 7700: +7000 – 5th in SG: OTT, 3rd in opportunities gained, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, 33rd in Par 4 scoring, 25th in Par 4 scoring (450-500 yds), 18th in putting (not a stat I typically care about since there’s so much variability to it)

Henrik Norlander: 7500: +10000 – T2 and T12 the last 2 weeks, was 4th in SG: T2G at the Farmers last week and gained strokes T2G, OTT, Approach and ARG, 16th in approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring (450-500 yds)


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