AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Gambling/DFS 2021

Pebble Beach Golf Links – Monterey Peninsula, CA
Spyglass Hill Golf Course – Monterey Peninsula, CA

Course Breakdown

Pebble Beach Golf Links (All Rounds): 7050 yd. Par 72,  fairways aren’t as wide and rough is a little thicker than usual already because the USGA is already starting to get it ready for the US Open, smallest greens on the PGA Tour, 2 Par 5s are reachable by all golfers, 1 will barely be reachable by any golfer, 1 reachable for long hitters, Par 4s here are a lot shorter than average with six Par 4s under 400 yds, course hugs the cost line which makes it very hard if wind picks up, above average size fairways with bunkers guarding the landing zones, OB comes into play on almost half the holes, very small POA greens (half size of tour average), guys club down here and use less than driver on a lot of holes, annually the course with short average drive on Tour (264 yds vs. 283 yds average) and fewest amount of drives over 300 yds (8.96%)

Spyglass Hill Golf Course (Rounds 1-2): 7050 yd. Par 72, has played more difficult than Pebble 9 of the last 12 years, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers, lot of trees on this course so wind could be less of a factor but it’s a harder course, average sized fairways with just a few bunkers, lot of trees and lots of water if golfers miss the fairway, slightly larger greens than Pebble but with a lot more slope and undulation

Tournament Notes

  • Normal this tournament blows with all the amateurs playing alongside the pros the entire week making it so long and unwatchable, this year though with covid, there is no pro am and instead of the 3 course rotation, there’s no Monterey Peninsula CC making it like a normal tournament with a normal cut after 36 holes
  • Weather is a big factor here, in good weather these are all easy courses but in bad weather they get very difficult so lot of variability in this tournament
  • A lot of variety in winners here with a lot of winners outside the Top 100 and not many in the Top 20, but Americans win here (not Euros, only 3 non-Americans in the last like 50 years)
  • No one has won here for the first time here since the 1950s
  • The leader or co-leader after 54 holes, has gone on to win 12 times since 2000 including 7 of the past 8 years (Phil was 3 back from Casey two years ago)
  • 10 of the last 12 winners here played at least 3 events in January and February prior to playing here (Vaughn Taylor and Phil two years ago are the only ones not to)
  • Ted Potter, Phil (in 2012), Vaughn Taylor and Nick Taylor last year are the only 4 winners the last 12 years that didn’t have a T15 in one of their 3 prior events that calendar year

Key Stats

SG: Approach (4x more impactful than SG: OTT), Ballstriking, Par 4s Gained (350-400 yds)

Main proximity distance range on approach: 100-225 yds, 200+ yds

Field

156 players with absolutely the weakest field of the season (even more so with DJ’s withdrawal)

Defending Champion: Nick Taylor (-19)

Runner Up Last Year: Kevin Streelman (-15)

One and Done: Patrick Cantlay

Alternate: Jason Day

One and Done Considerations: J. Day, Cantlay

Players

Jason Day: 9500: +1800 – 2nd in historical SG here with T5 or better finishes in 5 or th last 6 years here (T11 in 2016), back to back events where his irons were good and in the last 3 rounds he lost 6.5 strokes putting, lost strokes putting here once in his career here (not during a US Open), 37th in SG: T2G, 4th in short game, 32nd in SG: OTT, 11th in SG: ARG, 16th in putting, 30th in DK pts

Si WOO Kim: 9400: +3000 – MC, T4 here the last two years, 2nd in SG: T2G, 11th in ballstriking, 14th in approach, 18th in short game, 22nd in SG: OTT, 2nd in SG: ARG, 3rd in DK pts, 7th in opportunities gained, 16th in proximity 125-150 yds, trending up in 12th in proximity 100-125yds (last 24 rds, vs. 72nd over last 50)

Cameron Davis: 9000: +4000 – 8th in SG: T2G, 6th in ballstriking, 5th in SG: OTT, 21st in approach, 2nd in DK pts, 9th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring (350-400 yds), 4th in opportunities gained, 25th in proximity 200+ yds

Sam Burns: 9100: +4500 – 1st in SG: OTT, 14th in SG: T2G, 12th in Ballstriking, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 3rd in opportunities gained, 7th in proximity 100-125 yds, 15th in proximity 200+ yds, 20th in putting, 4th in DK pts

Harold Varner III: 7700: +6000 – 3rd in SG: T2G, 5th in approach, 5th in ballstriking, 18th in SG: OTT, 17th in SG: ARG, 2nd in opportunities gained, 8th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 16th in proximity 125-150 yds, 4th in proximity 200+ yds, 29th in DK pts

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • No TV cameras or ShotLink data on Spyglass, which could lead to big live betting opportunities in the first two rounds

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