Genesis Invitational – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Riviera Country Club – Los Angeles, CA

Course Breakdown

7322 yd. Par 71, plays long since the Par 5s are short, 3 Par 5s are the easiest holes on the course which give up around 45% of all birdies on this course (#1 is the easiest hole on the PGA and there is the most eagles here) also a drivable Par 4 (#10), one of lowest driving accuracy courses (~53% vs. 61% Tour average), tight fairways, lots of fairway bunkers with huge lips, challenging doglegs especially to the right side (which favors righty’s that hit a fade or most lefty’s who play a draw), tree lined but that shouldn’t effect much if you don’t wildly miss the fairway, spongy kikuya fairways and somewhat thick rough (popular grass in South Africa), small and fast POA greens with multi tiered with lots of undulation and slope, guarded by a lot of bunkers and false fronts, one of lowest GIR courses on tour (~58% vs. 66% Tour average), behind Pebble Beach here has hardest greens to hit on tour from within 125 yds. (76%), toughest putting course between 3-5 feet in 5 of the last 9 seasons, in top 3 courses on tour of missed putts within 3 feet, bombers and lefty’s have an advantage (Phil, Bubba)

Tournament Notes

  • Last year this tournament became a reduced field invitational (Tiger’s tournament)
  • 70% of the golfers that have finished T3 here in the last six years have been inside T56 in approach in the year they finished T3
  • 80% of the golfers that finished T3 here in the last 15 years have been inside the T55 in SG: T2G in the year they finished T3

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: T2G, Ballstriking, SG: ARG

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds

Corollary Courses

  • Augusta National (The Masters)
    • Other than James Hahn 6 years ago, every other golfer that has won here in the last 28 years has finished T22 or better at some point in their career
    • 19 of the last 31 winners here have won or come in 2nd at The Masters at some point in their career
    • 25 of the last 31 winners here have finished inside the T10 at Augusta all time
    • 29 of the last 31 winners here have finished inside the T20 at Augusta all time
    • Every lefty thats won the Masters (Bubba, Phil, Mike Weir) has won here multiple times
  • Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship) – lot of crossover leaders (including James Hahn that won both)

Field

120 player major strength invitational field

Defending Champion: Adam Scott (-11)

Runner Up Last Year: Sung Kang, Matt Kuchar, Scott Brown (-9)

One and Done: Dustin Johnson

Alternate: Bubba Watson

One and Done Considerations: DJ, JT, Rahm, Bubba

Players

Dustin Johnson: 11230: +600 – No one should ever be +600 to win any golf tournament especially with this field but DJ is undoubtably the best player in the field this week with the best fit for the course, T1 in SG: Total here in the last 5 years (with Adam Scott), last 5 years here: T10,T9,T16,1,4, 1st in SG: T2G, 1st in ballstriking, 3rd in approach (1st in last 24 rds), 9th in SG: OTT, 28th in SG: ARG (12th in last 24 rds), 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (1st in last 24 rds), 5th in driving distance, 2nd in opportunities gained (1st in last 24 rds), 10th in proximity 200+ yds over last 24 rounds, 1st in DK pts

Collin Morikawa: 9500: +2800 – T26 in his debut here last year, 12th in SG: T2G, 15th in ballstriking, 9th in approach (5th over last 24 rds), 6th in opportunities gained, 1st in proximity 175-200 yds, 12th in proximity 200+ yds, 15th in DK pts

Joaquin Niemann: 8800: +4000 – 2nd in both of his last two starts, 10th in approach, 7th in ballstriking (5th in last 24 rds), 13th in SG: OTT, 12th in driving distance (9th in last 24 rds), 18th in opportunities gained (10th in last 24 rds), 18th in proximity 175-200 yds, 27th in proximity 200+ yds over last 24 rds, 17th in DK pts

Si WOO Kim: 7700: +10000 – Has won in an elite field before (The Players), 3rd here 2 years ago, 6th in SG: T2G,17th in approach, 1st in SG: ARG, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 25th in ballstriking, 16th in opportunities gained, 1st in proximity 175-200 yds, 14th in short game, 14th in DK pts

Sam Burns: 7400: +10000 – T23 here last year, 11th in SG: OTT, 29th in SG: T2G, 23rd in ballstriking (21st over last 24 rds), 34th in short game, 18th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (9th over last 24 rds), 5th in driving distance, 3rd in opportunities gained, 25th in proximity 175-200 yds over last 24 rds, 21st in proximity 200+ yds, 15th in putting, 8th in DK pts

Henrik Norlander: 7400: +12500 – Has been playing well recently, Over last 24 rounds: 20th in approach, 12th in ballstriking, 8th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds

Keegan Bradley: 7200: +15000 – Has a few decent finishes here in the past but has missed the cut here 3 of the last 5 years here, over last 24 rounds: 2nd in approach, 2nd in ballstriking, 3rd in opportunities gained, 2nd in proximity 175-200 yds


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