I took a rare night off of betting last night with a lousy four game slate but it was good to see that my leans on the Caps and Jets would’ve hit. Today there’s a huge slate of some good NHL games that I’m breaking all down and hoping to cash in on!
Bruins vs. Sabres (1:00)
The Sabres have lost 15 straight games now and 13 of those losses were in regulation. They haven’t won a game in the month of March since 2018. I’m going to keep hammering whoever plays the Sabres every day. Since even the regulation line here is -220, I’m going to get a little fancy here. Since I’d be risking over 4 units to win 2 on the regulation line here, I’m going to go with a 4 unit parlay with the Bruins in regulation (-220) with the alternate line over 5.5 of Jets/Flames tonight (this is the cheapest alternate line on the slate) to win 6.4 units. If the Bruins win in regulation, I’m going to bet 2.8 units on the regular under 6 of Jets/Flames. That would mean I’m guaranteed 2.8 units (.8 units more than if I risked .2 more by going with just the Bruins in regulation straight), which could be more if Jets/Flames ends at exactly 6 goals since then the hedge would push and you’d win the full 6.4 on the parlay. DISREGARD THIS HEDGE, SEE UPDATE
UPDATE: I completely fucked up the math on this earlier, but still guaranteed money. It’s just less than the 2 units I would’ve won if I had played this straight as normal. The only guaranteed money on this game is +1.2 units if you hedge out of it completely with 5.2 units on the alternate line under 5.5 at +105. The other scenario with 4.7 units on the regular line of under 6 at -120 though, guarantees +.7 regardless of outcome and then gives you the possibility to get a +6.4 unit win if the game ends with exactly 6. This is gambling and essentially the only risk is a half unit to give the small chance to win 6.4 units. Why not have some fun.
Flyers vs. Rangers (1:00)
In their last two games, the Rangers have crushed the Flyers, first 9-0 for the biggest embarrassment of the season and then in their last game 8-3 in another blowout. This season, the last four of the five games between them has easily gone over. Going with the over again here for a unit and the Rangers ML for half a unit.
Red Wings vs. Blue Jackets (3:00)
Both these teams aren’t good but both play teams closely. In three games this year, the Jackets are 2-1 against Detroit. I’m skipping this shitty game.
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights (3:00)
Thursday night, with some guys out with injury, the Avs rolled in the second period with four goals to go on to win 5-1, tie the Knights for first place in the West and get their 3rd win in 5 games against Vegas this year. I’d lean Vegas to tie up the season series here today, but I’m going to skip this game that I think’s a preview of the West Finals.
Hurricanes vs. Lightning (7:00)
Both of these teams are really good this year but can be beat. Tampa’s coming off a loss where they got completely outworked (but still hung around) in a game against Dallas on Thursday night. I’d lean Tampa here to bounce back from that loss. In 5 games this year, Tampa’s 3-2 against a solid Carolina team. With the Canes at home and how they play defensively, I’m going to skip this game.
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers (7:00)
The Leafs finally got two wins in a row against Calgary and Ottawa after a brutal stretch for them. This season against Edmonton, the Leafs have crushed them with 5 wins in 7 games. The Oilers are playing better than the Leafs recently though. I’m going to skip this game entirely. If anything I’d lean the over.
Penguins vs. Islanders (7:00)
Both of these teams are having really good years and should both make the playoffs. I think the Isles are the slightly better team, but Pittsburgh’s 4-2 against them this season. This should be one of the best games on today’s slate to watch, but I don’t really see any edge to betting on it.
Blackhawks vs. Predators (8:00)
Nashville’s playing their best stretch of hockey this season with 5 wins in their last 6 games but have disappointed all season. Chicago’s over exceeded expectations this year. This season the Preds are 2-0 against the Hawks. I think the Blackhawks are the better team here and I’d lean that they win but I’m not betting this game. Too question marks to what could happen.
Stars vs. Panthers (8:00)
Florida’s on a bad stretch lately with four losses in their last 5 games. Without Barkov in the lineup, their offense has looked lost and they haven’t been able to set up plays to get the puck in the back of the net like they have recently. The Stars who have been one of the biggest disappointments of this season are coming off of their biggest win of the season where they outworked a much better Tampa for a win. Florida’s 2-1 this year against the Stars and I have no idea what could happen in tonight’s game. Skipping this one.
Flames vs. Jets (10:00)
Last night the Jets lead the entire game against the Flames to win 3-2. I think these teams play pretty close. With Brossoit starting for the Jets tonight, I’m not too confident in the winner of this one so I’m skipping this game besides the possible hedge on the Bruins parlay if the B’s win in regulation, where I’ll be hoping for exactly 6 goals in this one.
Coyotes vs. Sharks (10:00)
Martin Jones looked like shit in goal for the Sharks last night as the Yotes beat them 5-2. All three games between these teams this year have gone over so I’m going back to that trend for half a unit.
4u Parlay: Bruins in regulation/Winnipeg/Calgary alternate line over 5.5 (+160)
UPDATE HEDGE: 4.7u Winnipeg/Calgary under 6 (-120)
1u Rangers/Flyers over 6.5 (-110)
.5u Rangers ML (-135)
.5u Coyotes/Sharks over 5.5 (-120)
Record: 166-136 (-12.82 units)