PGA Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Kiawah Island Golf Resort (Ocean Course) – Charlestown, SC

It’s major championship week as the PGA Tour goes to South Carolina for the PGA Championship, the second major of the year at the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island.

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7876 yards, Pete Dye design, right on the ocean so weather and wild highly effects the course with wind being the biggest factor on how the course plays and the wind can shift all over the place in many directions, the wind will effect if the Par 5s are reachable in 2, 3 of the Par 3s are over 200 yards, water in play on 6 holes (most in a major setup in the United States), wider fairways than most major venues, fairways should play firm with a lot of rollout, sand dunes and native areas outside of the fairway and there isn’t much rough so missing the fairway to lead to going in the sand dunes (which can be played like a regular shot, not a sand shot out of bunkers with practice shots etc. allowed), hitting the fairway here is important and in 2012 the GIR % from the fairway was 68.3% where missing the fairway GIR % was only 39.1%, greens are all very elevated above the dune line so wind is more in play while putting, sides of the greens are closely mowed and with them so elevated the ball could roll off to make some difficult around the green shots, slow paspalum grass greens

Tournament Notes

  • This course held the 2012 PGA Championship where Rory McIlroy won by an impressive 8 strokes, but the course has been renovated since then
  • This will be the longest course in major championship history
  • Cut is T70 and ties instead of typical T65 and ties

Key Stats

SG: Approach, Ballstriking, SG: OTT, SG: ARG

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds

Corollary Courses

  • Erin Hills (2017 US Open) – biggest defense of this course is the wind, similar to Erin Hills
  • Pete Dye courses: TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (CareerBuilder Challenge), Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
  • Quail Hollow Golf Course (Wells Fargo Championship), PGA National (The Honda Classic) – lot of crossover success on the T10s here in 2012 with T5s at both of these courses

Field

156 players (20 of these guys are PGA Professionals, no chance any of them win and likely none of them even make the cut)

Defending Champion (TPC Harding Park): Collin Morikawa (-13)

Runner Up Last Year (TPC Harding Park): Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey (-11)

One and Done: Rory McIlroy

Alternate: Cam Smith

One and Done Considerations: Rory McIlroy

Players

Rory McIlroy: 11500: +1100 – Won his last tournament played at the Wells Fargo two weeks ago, had an incredible win at this course in 2012, 18th in approach, 13th in SG: OTT (6th over last 50 rounds), 49th in SG: ARG, 24th in proximity 200+ yds, 25th in opportunities gained (8th over last 50 rounds), 53rd in Par 3 scoring 200-250 yds (46th over last 50 rounds), 27th in Par 4 scoring, 65th in putting, Hear the RORS!

Bryson DeChambeau: 10200: +1800 – 1st in SG: OTT, 60th in approach, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 47th in SG: ARG, 10th in Par 3 scoring 200-250 yds, 8th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 27th in opportunities gained, 25th in putting

Viktor Hovland: 9300: +2200 – 9th in approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 24th in proximity 200+ yds (10th over last 50 rounds), 26th in fairways gained, 92nd in SG: ARG (62nd over last 50 rounds), 10th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 17th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (7th over last 50 rounds), 2nd in opportunities gained, 23rd in putting

Daniel Berger: 8700: +3000 – 17th in approach, 11th in SG: OTT, 6th in proximity 200+ yds, 51st in fairways gained (48th over last 50 rounds), 72nd in SG: ARG, 33rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds (11th over last 50 rounds), 49th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 38th in opportunities gained, 28th in putting (18th over last 50 rounds)

Abraham Ancer: 7900: +5000 – 13th in approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 3rd in fairways gained, 36th in SG: ARG, 42nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds (33rd over last 50 rounds), 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 22nd in opportunities gained, 38th in putting

Paul Casey: 7700: +6600 – 7th in approach, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 45th in SG: OTT (29th over last 50 rounds), 52nd in fairways gained, 19th in SG: ARG, 21st in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds (17th over last 50 rds), 69th in Par 4 scoring (29th over last 50 rds), 24th in opportunities gained, 59th in putting (47th over last 50 rds)

Corey Conners: 7600: +6000 – 4th in approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 5th in fairways gained (2nd over last 50 rds), 24th in proximity 200+ yds, 5th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 6th in opportunities gained (4th over last 50 rounds), 44th in putting

Keegan Bradley: 7300: +8000 – T3 here in 2012 and recently has been playing great, 20th in approach (4th over last 50 rds), 9th in proximity 200+ yds, 36th in SG: OTT (22nd over last 50 rds), 13th in fairways gained (6th over last 50 rds), 3rd in SG: ARG, 6th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 23rd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 30th in opportunities gained (16th over last 50 rds), 62nd in putting

Charley Hoffman: 7300: +12500 – 5th in approach, 44th in SG: OTT (17th over last 50 rds), 3rd in proximity 200+ yds, 51st in SG: ARG, 14th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 42nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (16th over last 50 rds), 8th in opportunities gained (5th over last 50 rds), 52nd in putting (34th over last 50 rds)

Cameron Tringale: 7100: +15000 – Made cut in 2012 here (worse finish of all players who didn’t MC), 34th in approach (31st over last 50 rds), 22nd in proximity 200+ yds, 30th in SG: OTT, 22nd in fairways gained, 7th in SG: ARG, 70th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 19th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 39th in opportunities gained (37th over last 50 rds), 68th in putting (26th over last 50 rds) 

Chris Kirk: 7000: +20000 – 32nd in approach (29th over last 50 rds), 18th in SG: OTT, 15th in proximity 200+ yds, 38th in fairways gained (30th over last 50 rds), 12th in SG: ARG, 52nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 34th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 43rd in opportunities gained (30th over last 50 rds), 55th in putting

Note: All stats based on last 24 rounds unless otherwise noted

Bets

1u Rory McIlroy to win (+1100)


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