I only bet one game yesterday and went 2-0 for +2 units as Tampa easily won and hit the over to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The Islanders tied up their series in a must win game at home, the Leafs tied up their series in Game 2 and Vegas took a huge 3-1 series lead in Minnesota heading back to the Fortress on Monday night. The Bruins and Avs have a chance to close out their series today. Let’s crush these games!
I have a lot sitting on the Penguins to win their series. With that series tied at 2-2, the Penguins are still the favorites to win it going back home for Game 5. I do still think Pittsburgh wins it, but having 4 units at -140 on them to win the series as well as 2 units for them to win the East is a lot sitting out there. I’ll buy out of some of this today with 3 units on the Islanders to win that series, making the risk much lower while still having money riding on the Pens to win. It’s just the smarter move to buy out of some of it now with this becoming just a three game series.
Game 4: Predators vs. Hurricanes (2:30)
Smashville brought the energy in their building on Friday night as the Predators prevented a sweep in the series with a 5-4 win in double overtime. Carolina crushed Games 1 and 2 at home and it took the Preds in desperation mode scoring five goals and winning in double overtime to prevent the Canes from going up 3-0 in the series. Carolina answers back with a big win today to go up 3-1 with the chance to end this series at home in Game 5 when this series goes back to Raleigh. I’ll take the Canes today for 2 units as well as the over for a unit, with two of the three games in this series having gone over.
Game 4: Blues vs. Avalanche (5:00)
The Avs are just way too much for the Blues to handle. No games in this series have been a sweat at all for Colorado. I’d expect Colorado sweeps the Blues today in probably another blowout win. I’ll take the Avs for a unit each today on the ML and the regulation line (to cut down some juice) along with a unit on the Avs TT over 3.5.
Game 5: Capitals vs. Bruins (7:00)
In Game 4, the Bruins won pretty easily 4-1 to put the Caps in an elimination situation in Game 5. I think the B’s end this series today to cash my big series bet on them. Since they’re relatively cheap on the road today, I’ll take the B’s ML for a unit. If they lose this game, I’ll win that back next game cause I don’t see the Capitals turning this into a seven game series, so thats a risk worth taking for me. I also am take the alternate over of 5, despite it being a bit pricey and over 5.5 being only 1-3 this series. Chaos happens in elimination games and if the Bruins have a lead in the third period, the Caps are going to be pulling their goalie a lot earlier than usual. Over 5 in this series is 1-0-3, so the higher juice to get a push there is worth it to me even if the Caps win it.
Game 3: Jets vs. Oilers (7:30)
Fuck hockey in Canada this year. The Oilers are the better team in this series but at home in Game 1 only scored a goal in a 4-1 loss (that was a closer game than the score shows) and then lost in a double regulation shutout as the Jets won in overtime 1-0. Edmonton also outshot Winnipeg in both of those games but McDavid and company can’t figure out Connor Hellebuyck. The Oilers should win this game to prevent themselves from going down 3-0 in the series but on the road in Winnipeg, no chance I’m betting either side of this game. I wish I didn’t have my series bet on the Oilers but at this point I’m not trying to hedge it either.
2u Carolina ML (-150)
1u Carolina/Nashville over 5.5 (+110)
1u Colorado ML (-240)
1u Colorado in regulation (-143)
1u Colorado TT over 3.5 (-109)
1u Bruins ML (-140)
1u Bruins/Capitals over 5 (-167)
4u Bruins (-155)
4u Penguins (-140)
3u Islanders (+102)
3u Carolina to win series in 6 or less games (-150)
2u Colorado to win series in 6 or less games (-190)
1u Colorado to win series 4-0 (+450)
1u Colorado to win series 4-1 (+300)
1u Colorado to win series 4-2 (+400)
3u Oilers (-175)
2u Stanley Cup Champions: Vegas Golden Knights (+700)
2u Stanley Cup Champions: Colorado Avalanche (+650)
1u Stanley Cup Champions: New York Islanders (+1300)
1u Stanley Cup Champions: Washington Capitals (+1600)
1.5u Stanley Cup Champions: Boston Bruins (+900)
1u Stanley Cup Champions: Pittsburgh Penguins (+1300)
2u East Division Champions: Boston Bruins (+180)
2u East Division Champions: Pittsburgh Penguins (+235)
Record: 323-238-2 (-13.92 units)
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