Palmetto Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Congaree Golf Club – Gillisonville, SC

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7655 yards, Bermuda grass throughout, natural sand on the course with native waste areas (so players can ground their club in it without penalty), relatively flat with only 30 feet in elevation changes, wide fairways, seems similar to Australian courses

Tournament Notes

  • Replaces the RBC Canadian Open for the year due to all the coronavirus border issues with Canada
  • First time this course is hosting a professional event

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards

Field

156 golfers – other than DJ and Brooks, this field is dog shit

One and Done: Brooks Koepka

Alternate: Matthew Fitzpatrick

One and Done Considerations: Brooks, Hatton, DJ

Players

Brooks Koepka: 11100: +800 – My biggest concern here is that he’s just using this as practice for the US Open and just doesn’t give a shit this week, seems like his bigger concerns than this tournament are fighting Bryson and beating Portnoy lefty, along with DJ though he’s the best player in the field without question, 3rd in ballstriking, 3rd in SG: T2G, 6th in SG: OTT (3rd over last 24 rounds), 5th in approach, 26th in SG: ARG over last 24 rounds, 8th in putting over last 24 rounds, 5th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards over last 24 rounds, 5th in proximity 200+ yards over last 24 rounds, 24th in sand saves over last 24 rounds, 3rd in DK pts, best player in the field on courses over 7400 yards over last 24 rounds (3rd in SG: T2G, 2nd in ballstriking, 4th in SG: OTT, 1st in approach, 2nd in DK pts), I actually think there’s a lot of value in betting him at the very low number of +800 with this easy of a field to compete against that he can easily crush if he decides to care on the week before a major

Matthew Fitzpatrick: 10400: +1200 – 11th in SG: T2G, 12th in ballstriking, 1st in short game, 2nd in putting, 7th in SG: OTT (1st over last 24 rounds), 42nd in approach, 34th in SG: ARG (14th over last 24 rounds), 12th in Par 4 scoring over 500 yards over last 24 rounds, 5th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards over last 24 rounds, 39th in sand saves over last 24 rounds, 5th in DK pts

Lucas Glover: 8600: +3300 – 9th in SG: T2G, 25th in approach, 11th in ballstriking, 12th in SG: OTT, 16th in SG: ARG (10th over last 24 rounds), 21st in Par 4 scoring over 500 yards over last 24 rounds, 47th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards over last 24 rounds, 47th in short game, 67th in proximity 200+ yards over last 24 rounds, 12th in putting over last 24 rounds, 7th in sand saves over last 24 rounds, 11th in DK pts, pretty good on courses over 7400 yards over last 24 rounds (8th in SG: T2G, 9th in ballstriking, 6th in approach, 25th in SG: ARG, 45th in SG: OTT)

Harold Varner III: 8500: +3300 – 5th in SG: T2G, 9th in ballstriking, 14th in approach, 20th in SG: OTT (16th over last 24 rounds), 6th in SG: ARG, 24th in short game, 61st in putting, 73rd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards over last 24 rounds, 54th in proximity 200+ yards over last 24 rounds, 54th in sand saves over last 24 rounds, 31st in DK pts

Russell Knox: 8200: +5000 – 12th in SG: T2G, 13th in ballstriking, 7th in approach, 42nd in SG: ARG, 69th in SG: OTT, 60th in DK pts, good on courses over 7400 yards over last 24 rounds (6th in SG: T2G, 8th in ballstriking, 36th in SG: OTT, 8th in approach, 13th in SG: ARG)

Luke List: 7900: +5500 – 8th in SG: T2G, 7th in ballstriking, 3rd in SG: OTT, 28th in approach (13th over last 24 rounds), 65th in SG: ARG, 10th in DK pts, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 500+ yards over last 24 rounds, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards over last 24 rounds, 56th in proximity 200+ yards over last 24 rounds, very good on course over 7400 yards over last 24 rounds (7th in SG: T2G, 10th in ballstriking, 5th in SG: OTT, 15th in short game, 17th in SG: ARG, 1st in DK pts)

Matthew NeSmith: 7800: +6600 – 2nd in approach, 10th in SG: T2G, 5th in ballstriking, 31st in SG: OTT, 35th in DK pts, pretty good on courses over 7400 yards over last 24 rounds

Martin Laird: 7800: +8000 – Party Marty! 16th in SG: T2G, 22nd in ballstriking, 21st in approach (9th over last 24 rounds), 29th in SG: OTT, 36th in SG: ARG, 48th in DK pts, 13th in Par 4 scoring over 500 yards over last 24 rounds, 37th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards over last 24 rounds, 10th in proximity 200+ yards over last 24 rounds, 86th in sand saves over last 24 rounds

Vincent Whaley: 7700: +8000 – 9 made cuts in a row and improving each event he’s played, 28th in DK pts, all over over last 24 rounds (he sucks when you look at last 50 rounds for everything but improving so I’m just looking at the smaller sample size): 25th in SG: OTT, 36th in approach, 30th in SG: ARG, 10th in Par 4 scoring over 500 yards, 60th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards, 68th in proximity 200+ yards, 3rd in sand saves

Hank Lebioda: 6900: +12500 – 22nd in SG: T2G, 29th in ballstriking, 73rd in SG: OTT over last 24 rounds, 12th in approach (4th over last 24 rounds), 63rd in SG: ARG, 63rd in DK pts, 5th in Par 4 scoring 500+ yards over last 24 rounds, 72nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yards over last 24 rounds, 3rd in proximity 200+ yards, 75th in sand saves over last 24 rounds, pretty good on courses over 7400 yards over last 24 rounds (10th in SG: T2G, 7th in ballstriking, 35th in SG: OTT, 7th in approach, 52nd in SG: ARG)

Note: I used a lot more over last 24 round stats (all noted) for recent form than usual because of how weak the field is to try to catch some guys coming in hot. If stats aren’t noted to be over last 24 rounds, they are all based on last 50 rounds


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