Rocket Mortgage Classic – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Detroit Golf Club – Detroit, MI

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7334 yds, 4 of the Par 4s under 400 yds, 4 of the Par 4s over 450 yds, 2 of the Par 3s over 200 yds, 2 of the Par 5s are reachable by most of the field with another one reachable by some, Donald Ross designed course, birdiefest, tree lined fairways, fairway bunkers in the landing zones, undulating fairways and greens, less than driver on about half of holes but most guys still bomb it and average drives here were 13 yards longer than average mitigating any advantage of driving it long besides Bryson, third longest average driving distance on tour (over 300 yards) since there is a ton of roll after it gets burned out, mainly straight holes (not many doglegs on Donald Ross designs), slightly below average fairway widths, 3.5 inch rough, barely less than average sized greens, bunkers surrounding the bunkers, greens slope heavily from back to front with heavy undulation, Bluegrass greens (mix of mostly POA with around 20% bentgrass), some of the most birdies and eagles here of any courses on tour

Tournament Notes

  • 2019 was the first year that this tournament was held, replacing the Quicken Loans National and was the first PGA event at Detroit Golf Club
  • Everyone in the T20 in 2019 here gained strokes putting. Putting matters here but its the one stat thats so variable that its not worth even looking at on a week to week basis
  • Last year, of the top 16 guys in SG: OTT they all made the cut besides Bubba and the rest of them besides Kevin Chappell (T62) finished in the T30

Key Stats

SG: OTT, Approach, Birdie+ Gained

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (21%), 125-150/150-175 yds. (both 19%)

Corollary Courses

East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship), Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – both similar Donald Ross design courses

Field

150 golfers, pretty shitty strength field with a few top end players

Defending Champion: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)

Runner Up Last Year: Matthew Wolff (-20)

One and Done: Jason Kokrak

Alternate: Keegan Bradley

One and Done Considerations: Bryson

Players

Bryson DeChambeau: 11400: +750 – Winner here last year, 1st in SG: OTT, 42nd in approach, 5th in SG: T2G, 1st in ballstriking, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 20th in proximity 125-150 yds, 72nd in proximity 150-175 yds, 8th in putting, 26th in short game, 4th in birdie+ gained, 5th in opportunities gained, 3rd in DK pts

Jason Kokrak: 9500: +2650 – T29 here in 2019 (didn’t play last year), 9th in SG: OTT, 14th in approach, 14th in SG: T2G, 7th in ballstriking, 41st in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 5 scoring, 6th in proximity 200+ yds, 39th in proximity 125-150 yds, 3rd in putting, 24th in short game, 3rd in birdie+ gained, 1st in opportunities gained, 4th in DK pts

Keegan Bradley: 9000: +5050 – T45 here last year, 12th in SG: OTT, 5th in approach, 2nd in SG: T2G, 5th in ballstriking, 20th in SG: ARG, 14th in Par 4 scoring, 17th in Par 5 scoring, 3rd in proximity 200+ yds, 48th in proximity 125-150 yds, 29th in proximity 150-175 yds, 87th in putting, 55th in short game, 17th in birdie+ gained, 14th in opportunities gained, 10th in DK pts

Max Homa: 8400: +5450 – T42 here in 2019 (didn’t play last year), 19th in SG: OTT, 8th in approach, 17th in SG: T2G, 8th in ballstriking, 21st in Par 4 scoring, 5th in Par 5 scoring, 11th in proximity 200+ yds, 54th in proximity 125-150 yds, 28th in proximity 150-175 yds, 18th in putting, 52nd in short game, 5th in birdie+ gained, 13th in opportunities gained, 5th in DK pts

Emiliano Grillo: 8200: +5550 – T39 here last year, 14th in SG: OTT, 3rd in approach, 13th in SG: T2G, 4th in ballstriking, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 73rd in Par 5 scoring, 12th in proximity 200+ yds, 54th in proximity 125-150 yds, 3rd in proximity 150-175 yds, 69th in putting, 2nd in birdie+ gained, 4th in opportunities gained, 2nd in DK pts

Chris Kirk: 7400: +7450 – T21 here last year, 51st in SG: OTT, 40th in approach, 9th in SG: T2G, 36th in ballstriking, 6th in SG: ARG, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 4th in proximity 200+ yds, 6th in proximity 125-150 yds, 41st in proximity 150-175 yds, 59th in putting, 15th in short game, 34th in birdie+ gained, 33rd in opportunities gained, 23rd in DK pts

Joe Bramlett: 6700: +12500 – 11th in SG: OTT, 43rd in approach, 12th in SG: T2G, 13th in ballstriking, 46th in SG: ARG, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 10th in proximity 200+ yds, 78th in proximity 125-150 yds, 79th in proximity 150-175 yds, 72nd in birdie+ gained, 27th in opportunities gained, 30th in DK pts

Note: All listed stats are based on last 36 rounds

Betting Notes

Starting off the week with some matchup bets on round 1, may expand on this after the first round and in following weeks

Bets

.4u Round 1: Varner vs. Hadley (-152)

.4u Round 1: Matsuyama vs. Fowler (-132)

.4u Round 1: Zalatoris vs. Straka (-148)

.4u Round 1: Glover vs. Hadwin (-109)

.4u Round 1: Tringale vs. Cabrera-Bello (-175)

.4u Round 4: Brehm vs. Hadley (+116)

.4u Round 4: Wolff vs. Hickock (-152)

.4u Round 4: Kirk vs. Perez (-122)

.4u Round 4: Kisner vs. Werenski (-175)

.4u Round 4: Kokrak vs. Hagy (-230)

.4u Round 4: Davis vs. Lebioda (-122)

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Kokrak, Keegan, Homa, Grillo, Kirk, Bramlett

Contests: 

$5 $300k GPP ($50k to 1st)

$5 Single Entry Double Up (1379 entries)

$5 Double Up (1839 entries)


Please follow us on Instagram @atownszone and Twitter @atownszone! If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s