John Deere Classic – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

TPC Deere Run – Quad Cities, IL

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7258 yds, bentgrass, 5 Par 4s between 400-450 yds, this place is a birdiefest, top ten easiest course on tour, the 3 Par 5s should be reachable in 2 by most of the field along with the driveable Par 4 14th, wide tree lined fairways guarded by large bunkers in the landing zones, rough is fairly penal but doesn’t come in play that often since driving accuracy is ~72% (tour average ~62%), fairways usually play firm with a good amount of roll, large greens guarded by bunkers and collection areas, greens are very easy to hit and very receptive with ~71% GIR (tour average ~65%) and slow with a bit of undulation and slope

Tournament Notes

  • This event was cancelled last year due to the coronavirus pandemic
  • The winner of this event will get the final available spot in The Open Championship next week if they have not yet already qualified (or a T10 in the Scottish Open on the Euro Tour this week also qualifies)
  • Since 2008, 7 of the 12 winners were in the T50 of the OWGR (6 of the 12 were in the T20)
  • In 2018, every golfer that finished in the T10 gained strokes in proximity 150-175 yds and all besides Varner gained from 175-200 yds. In 2019, all but Frittelli (who gained was putting lights out) and Chris Stroud, everyone in the T10 gained strokes in proximity 150-175 yds

Key Stats

SG Approach, Putting, Birdie+ Gained

Main proximity distance range on approach: 125-150 yds, 200+ yds (both 20%), 150-175 yds (19%)

Corollary Courses

Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (Sentry Tournament of Champions) – Lots of winners of this had success at Kapalua

Field

Atrocious field, worst of the year

Defending Champion (2019): Dylan Frittelli (-21)

Runner Up Last Year (2019): Russell Henley (-19)

One and Done: Hank Lebioda

Alternate: Harold Varner III

One and Done Considerations: Berger, Streelman, Henley, Lebioda, HV3

Players

Daniel Berger: 11100: +1187 – By far the best player in the field, T33,T5 the two times he played here in the last 5 years, T7 at the US Open and T20 at Charles Schwab his last 2 events, 1st in approach, 1st in ballstriking, 1st in SG: T2G, 68th in SG: ARG, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 24th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 75th in proximity 125-150 yds, 1st in proximity 150-175 yds, 4th in proximity 200+ yds, 21st in short game, 21st in putting, 11th in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdies+ gained, 1st in DK pts, I don’t see why he is playing here instead of the Scottish Open but there’s value to him at +1187 in this shitty field

Russell Henley: 9900: +1758 – 2nd here in 2019, T19 and T13 his last 2 events (Travelers and US Open), 2nd in approach, 8th in ballstriking, 15th in SG: T2G, 88th in SG: ARG, 9th in Par 4 scoring, 30th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 2nd in proximity 125-150 yds, 14th in proximity 150-175 yds, 71st in proximity 200+ yds, 57th in short game, 44th in putting, 15th in opportunities gained, 44th in birdies+ gained, 34th in DK pts

Kevin Streelman: 9700: +2450 – T7,T44,MC his last 3 times here (2018,2017,2015), MC,T15,T13,T20 his last 4 events, 5th in approach, 3rd in ballstriking, 5th in SG: T2G, 62nd in SG: ARG, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 4th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 20th in proximity 125-150 yds, 16th in proximity 150-175 yds, 45th in short game, 54th in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 9th in birdies+ gained, 4th in DK pts

Hank Lebioda: 8400: +5250 – T4,T5,T31 his last 3 events, 4th in approach, 10th in ballstriking, 16th in SG: T2G, 69th in SG: ARG, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 26th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 32nd in proximity 125-150 yds, 28th in proximity 150-175 yds, 7th in proximity 200+ yds, 24th in short game, 22nd in putting, 27th in opportunities gained, 17th in birdies+ gained, 11th in DK pts

Harold Varner III: 7800: +4250 – T53,6,MC here the last 3 years, 20th in approach, 11th in ballstriking, 10th in SG: T2G, 32nd in SG: ARG, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 13th in proximity 125-150 yds, 50th in proximity 150-175 yds, 85th in proximity 200+ yds, 43th in short game, 68th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 26th in birdies+ gained, 22nd in DK pts

Matthew NeSmith: 7200: +8550 – 7th in approach, 24th in ballstriking, 22nd in SG: T2G, 71st in SG: ARG, 84th in Par 4 scoring, 80th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 96th in proximity 125-150 yds, 12th in proximity 150-175 yds, 25th in proximity 200+ yds, 64th in opportunities gained, 69th in birdies+ gained, sucks at putting

Roger Sloan: 6900: +11050 – T10,T18 his last 2 times here (2019,2015), 19th in approach, 16th in ballstriking, 17th in SG: T2G, 67th in SG: ARG, 23rd in Par 4 scoring, 11th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 62nd in proximity 125-150 yds, 76th in proximity 200+ yds, 75th in short game, 81st in putting, 18th in opportunities gained, 15th in birdies+ gained, 13th in DK pts

Bets

I just won 18.55 units tonight as the Bolts lifted the Stanley Cup and don’t feel like going through all the matchup bets. I’ll have those up for rounds 2-4.

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Henley, Streelman, Lebioda, HV3, NeSmith, Sloan

Contests: 

$5 $20k GPP ($5k to 1st)

$5 Single Entry Double Up (1379 entries)

$5 Double Up (1839 entries)


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