My picks last week for the PLL were atrocious as I went an almost impressive 0-7 with a ton of upsets happening. Let’s get a nice bounce back as the PLL goes to Minnesota for Week 5.
Waterdogs vs. Cannons (7/9 8:00)
Even though I think the Cannons are a pretty good team in their inaugural season, they’re 1-4 through four weeks, but besides their 14-10 loss to the Chaos last week, their other three losses were just decided by a goal. The Waterdogs, who will be without attackman Michael Sowers and Drew Snider this week are 2-3 and performed right around where people expected. I think the Cannons, who have a higher scores per game average and allowing less scores than the Waterdogs (who are the worst in the league in scores against) win this game. The Cannons offense should be able to rip them up again like they did in their 13-7 win in Week 1. I’ll take the Cannons tonight for a unit and the under for half a unit.
Redwoods vs. Whipsnakes (7/10 6:00)
Last week the Whips bounced back from their loss in Week 3 to the Chrome with a huge 15-14 win over the Archers to take over first place in the PLL. The 3-2 Redwoods are coming into this game with a bounce back win as well, beating the Waterdogs 19-16 last week. Last season, the Whips were 2-0 against the Redwoods, beating them in group play and then again in a 13-12 game in the semifinals and in 2019 these teams were 1-1 against each other in the regular season before a 12-11 overtime win in the inaugural PLL Championship game for the Whipsnakes first title. Statistically this season these two teams match up pretty evenly across the board. I think even with Matt Rambo out for the Whips, they win this game to keep their first place spot in the standings. I’ll take the Whipsnakes for a unit, which is cheaper than I expected it to be.
Atlas vs. Chaos (7/10 8:45)
The new look Atlas offense has looked fantastic this season and they’re 3-2 coming into this game. After a lousy start to the season, the Chaos are coming into this game with back to back wins over the Cannons and Chrome. I would lean the Atlas but with starting goalie Jack Concannon out with a terrible groin injury, I don’t have much trust in JD Colarusso between the pipes against the Chaos offense. These teams didn’t meet last year in the bubble tournament and in 2019 they were 1-1 against each other with the Chaos winning 18-13 early in the season and Atlas winning 12-9 later in the season. I’ll lay off betting this game, but I’d lean the over.
Chrome vs. Waterdogs (7/11 4:45)
On Friday night, the Waterdogs kicked the shit out of the Cannons with a huge 19-7 win. Both of those teams have been tough to figure out this year. After back to back upset wins against the Whipsnakes and the Archers, the Chrome took a 16-10 loss to the Atlas last Sunday. Just goes to show how much parity there is across the league. When these teams met in Week 2 this season, the Dogs won in a 14-9 game and last year when these teams played the Chrome won 13-12. I’d lean the Chrome win this game but I’m not betting against the Waterdogs with how they played on Friday night. I do think this game goes over though, so I’ll take the over 23.5 for half a unit.
Cannons vs. Archers (7/1 7:30)
The Cannons got their asses kicked on Friday night in a 19-7 loss to the Waterdogs, to drop to 1-5 on the season. The Archers are coming into this game with back to back losses to the Whips and the Chrome last week. I still think the Archers are the best team in the league and get a big bounce back win in a great spot for them. The moneyline here at -335 is way too expensive for me so I’ll lay the 2.5 goals for a unit. I’d lean the over as well.
1u Cannons ML (-167)
.5u Cannons/Waterdogs under 26.5 (-113)
1u Whipsnakes ML (-159)
.5u Chrome/Waterdogs over 23.5 (-113)
1u Archers -1.5 (-113)
3u PLL Champions: Archers (+190)
Record: 10-15 (-11.8 units)