The Open Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Royal St. George’s Golf Club – Kent, England

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7189 yards, traditional links style course, very hilly course, many holes feature blind or partially blind shots, two of the Par 3’s are very long and over 240 yards, 7 of the Par 4’s are under 450 yds, 5 of the Par 4’s are over 450 yds, Par 5s should be reachable by the whole field, fairways are average in size, large pot bunkers in the landing zones that can be difficult to get out of, course possesses the deepest bunker in championship golf on the fourth hole, thick and tall fescue rough (that could be knee high in some places), rolling fairways with mounds all over the place so balls could take weird bounces and a lot of luck could be a factor, above average sized undulated greens with some runoff areas and pot bunkers surrounding them, highly effected by the wind with zero tree protection at all on the course

Tournament Notes

  • Final major of the year
  • Last year this event was cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic
  • This course has hosted 15 Open Championships, with the last one in 2011 when Darren Clarke won
  • 7 of the last 9 winners were 32 years old or older
  • 7 of the last 8 winners had a T20 in one of the other majors that season
  • 14 of the last 15 winners finished T9 or better in a previous year
  • 2 of the last 7 winners won their last start prior to winning the Open and 4 of the last 7 have a win in one of their two lead in events. 
  • 5 of the last 7 winners have a win in one of the previous five starts and the only outliers were Zach Johnson in 2015 who had 3 T10s in the 5 starts prior to winning at St. Andrews and Shane Lowry in 2019 who had 3 T10s in his 4 prior starts
  • All of the last 7 winners had a T10 at the Open in the five years prior to their win
  • The only four golfers in the field those trends fit this year are Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy
  • In the past 20 years at The Open, only 3 times have golfers averaged less than 56% GIR and 2 of those 3 times were at this course, so SG: ARG and scrambling are important here
  • The field got up and down out of the bunkers at here just 34% of the time at the 2011 Open

Key Stats

Approach, Ballstriking, SG: OTT, SG: ARG

Field

156 golfers with the best players in the world

Cut: Top 70 and ties

Defending Champion (2019 at Royal Portrush): Shane Lowry (-15)

Runner Up Last Year (2019 at Royal Portrush): Tommy Fleetwood (-9)

One and Done: Louis Oosthuizen

Alternate: Keegan Bradley

One and Done Considerations: Jordan, Brooks, Cantlay, Rory, etc. (I’ve used pretty much everyone already and am so out of it that 1&D doesn’t matter anymore)

Players

Brooks Koepka: 10700: +1400 – Fits the trends of the previous winners of The Open, T5,T4,MC,T2 his last 4 events (including T4 at the US Open and T2 at the PGA), T4,T39,T6,T10 his last 4 British Opens (+31.29 SG: Total), 17th in approach, 4th in ballstriking, 6th in SG: OTT, 6th in SG: T2G, 64th in SG: ARG, 11th in opportunities gained, 38th in sand saves, 28th in Par 4 scoring, 92nd in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 93rd in bogie avoidance, 30th in short game, 30th in putting, 5th in DK pts

Jordan Spieth: 9700: +1800 – T19,T18,2,T30,T9 his last 5 events, T20,T9,1,T30,T4 his last 5 British Opens with the most SG: Total at those events in that span (+50.81), 5th in approach, 15th in ballstriking, 44th in SG: OTT, 7th in SG: T2G, 17th in SG: ARG, 20th in opportunities gained, 46th in sand saves, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 74th in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 6th in bogie avoidance, 10th in short game, 14th in putting, 70th in 3 putt avoidance, 2nd in DK pts

Collin Morikawa: 9200: +3300 – T4, 2 in his last two events, 1st in approach, 1st in ballstriking, 17th in SG: OTT, 1st in SG: T2G, 94th in SG: ARG, 1st in opportunities gained, 97th in sand saves, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 49th in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 26th in bogie avoidance, 51st in 3 putt avoidance, 3rd in DK pts

Patrick Cantlay: 8900: +2800 – T41,T12 in his two British Open starts, T13,T15,1 in his last 3 events, 23rd in approach, 8th in ballstriking, 8th in SG: OTT, 3rd in SG: T2G, 22nd in SG: ARG, 32nd in opportunities gained, 68th in sand saves, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in bogie avoidance, 24th in short game, 43rd in putting, 10th in DK pts

Paul Casey: 8600: +2800 – Made the cut in 4 of the last 5 British Opens, T36,T7 his last two events, 2nd in approach, 5th in ballstriking, 45th in SG: OTT, 2nd in SG: T2G, 13th in SG: ARG, 23rd in opportunities gained, 15th in Par 4 scoring, 32nd in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 43rd in bogie avoidance, 43rd in short game, 4th in DK pts

Abraham Ancer: 7600: +6600 – 4th his last event (Travelers), 22nd in approach, 9th in ballstriking, 11th in SG: OTT, 14th in SG: T2G, 86th in SG: ARG, 36th in opportunities gained, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 9th in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 5th in bogie avoidance, 31st in short game, 19th in putting, 9th in 3 putt avoidance, 16th in DK pts

Daniel Berger: 7400: +5000 – Way too cheap on Draftkings for the talent that he has, 7th in approach, 12th in ballstriking, 25th in SG: OTT, 16th in SG: T2G, 88th in SG: ARG, 27th in opportunities gained, 33rd in sand saves, 28th in Par 4 scoring, 17th in bogie avoidance, 54th in short game, 47th in putting, 42nd in 3 putt avoidance, 36th in DK pts

Keegan Bradley: 6800: +10000 – 13th in approach, 16th in ballstriking, 24th in SG: OTT, 5th in SG: T2G, 14th in SG: ARG, 8th in opportunities gained, 76th in sand saves, 31st in Par 4 scoring, 43th in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 11th in bogie avoidance, 60th in short game, 61st in 3 putt avoidance, 14th in DK pts

Lucas Glover: 6600: +9000 – Coming off a win last week at the John Deere Classic, 54th in approach, 43rd in ballstriking, 33rd in SG: OTT, 34th in SG: T2G, 30th in SG: ARG, 27th in opportunities gained, 19th in sand saves, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 55th in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 32nd in bogie avoidance, 21st in short game, 27th in putting, 72nd in 3 putt avoidance, 29th in DK pts

All stats based on last 36 rounds

Bets

.5u Jordan Spieth: WIN +1800

.5u Brooks Koepka: WIN +1600

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Spieth, Morikawa, Casey, Ancer, Berger, Keegan

Lineup 2: Brooks, Spieth, Casey, Berger, Keegan, Glover

Lineup 3: Brooks, Cantlay, Casey, Ancer, Berger, Keegan

Lineup 4: Spieth, Morikawa, Cantlay, Ancer, Berger, Glover

Lineup 5: Spieth, Morikawa, Cantlay, Casey, Keegan, Glover

Lineup 6: Brooks, Morikawa, Cantlay, Ancer, Keegan, Glover

Contests: 

$10 Milly Maker GPP (296594 entries)

$5 $500k GPP (100k to 1st) (118906 entries)

$5 $40k GPP (10k to 1st) (9512 entries)


Please follow us on Instagram @atownszone and Twitter @atownszone! If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s