3M Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

TPC Twin Cities – Minneapolis, MN

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7431 yds, designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman, altitude above sea level so shots will go farther than normal, very easy course, was a birdiefest on the Sr. Tour (average winning score of -21) which continued on the PGA, 3 of the Par 3’s are over 200 yards, 6 Par 4s over 450 yds, ton of water here with 27 water hazards (in play on 15 holes), 72 bunkers on the course, wide tree lined fairways, bunkers in the landing zones, trees aren’t bunched up with a lot of room between the trees and fairway, above average size greens, run off area only on the front of most greens, rough, bunkers and water surrounding the greens, pure bent grass greens (only Colonial and Augusta have that), better than tour average driving accuracy (64% vs. 62%), better than tour average GIR % (74% vs. 66%), longer than tour average driving distance (290 vs. 283 yds)

Tournament Notes

  • Only the third year this tournament has taken place, formerly this course hosted the 3M Championship on the Champions Tour
  • SG: ARG has barely any impact whatsoever on finishes here
  • Every golfer with a T10 finish here the last two years has gained on both approach and SG: T2G
  • In 2019, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 gained at least 2.2 SG: OTT (all but one gained in SG: OTT) and last year 9 of the 11 golfers that finished T10 gained in SG: OTT
  • Both years of this event, everyone that finished T10 had at least 19 birdies or better for the tournament 
  • In 2019, the 12 golfers that finished T10 averaged 23 birdies or better and all were -16 or better and there were only 3 double bogies or worse
  • In 2019, 8 of the 12 golfers that finished T10 shot -7 or better on the Par 4s and only Sam Burns and Troy Merritt shot worse than -5

Key Stats

SG: Approach, Par 5 scoring, Birdie+ Gained

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (24.8%), 175-200 yds (20%)

Corollary Courses

PGA National (The Honda Classic) – Crossover success, has a ton of water and along with PGA National, this course has the most approach shots on Tour between 175-200 yds


Other than DJ, this field blows

Defending Champion: Michael Thompson (-19)

Runner Up Last Year: Adam Long (-17)

One and Done: Emiliano Grillo

Alternate: Keegan Bradley

One and Done Considerations: who cares


Cameron Tringale: 9500: +2500 – T26 at The Open, T14 at Rocket Mortgage his last 2 events, T3,T42 the last 2 years here, 26th in approach, 15th in SG: T2G, 81st in SG: OTT, 44th in ballstriking, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 53rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 76th in proximity 175-200 yds, 24th in proximity 200+ yds, 31st in opportunities gained, 12th in birdies+ gained, 2nd in short game, 16th in putting, 8th in DK pts

Emiliano Grillo: 9300: +2800 – T12 at The Open last week, T3 here last year, 2nd in approach, 14th in SG: T2G, 19th in SG: OTT, 4th in ballstriking, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 82nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 26th in proximity 175-200 yds, 9th in proximity 200+ yds, 6th in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdies+ gained, 51st in putting, 4th in DK pts

Keegan Bradley: 8800: +3300 – T46 here in 2019, 3rd in approach, 1st in SG: T2G, 17th in SG: OTT, 3rd in ballstriking, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 17th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 34th in proximity 175-200 yds, 3rd in proximity 200+ yds, 3rd in opportunities gained, 15th in birdies+ gained, 37th in short game, 86th in putting, 6th in DK pts

Stewart Cink: 8700: +5500 – T46 here last year, 1st in approach, 11th in SG: T2G, 64th in SG: OTT, 6th in ballstriking, 32nd in Par 4 scoring, 42nd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 4th in proximity 175-200 yds, 57th in proximity 200+ yds, 2nd in opportunities gained, 17th in birdies+ gained, 81st in short game, 68th in putting, 5th in DK pts

Patton Kizzire: 8600: +5500 – T11,T25 his last 2 events, T46,T34 here the last 2 years, 15th in approach, 50th in SG: T2G, 45th in ballstriking, 31st in Par 4 scoring, 36th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 44th in proximity 175-200 yds, 47th in proximity 200+ yds, 5th in opportunities gained, 1st in birdies+ gained, 9th in short game, 4th in putting, 1st in DK pts

Luke List: 8100: +5500 – T5,T4 his last 2 events, T32 here last year, 9th in approach, 3rd in SG: T2G, 5th in SG: OTT, 1st in ballstriking, 37th in Par 4 scoring, 34th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 7th in proximity 175-200 yds, 21st in proximity 200+ yds, 12th in opportunities gained, 26th in birdies+ gained, 24th in DK pts, his putting and short game blows so he needs to get it going with the putter

Hank Lebioda: 7900: +4500 – T8,T4,T5 his last 3 events, T26,T34 the last 2 years here, 10th in approach, 20th in SG: T2G, 69th in SG: OTT, 21st in ballstriking, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 29th in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 41st in proximity 175-200 yds, 12th in proximity 200+ yds, 43rd in opportunities gained, 14th in birdies+ gained, 12th in short game, 9th in putting, 16th in DK pts

Jhonattan Vegas: 7500: +5000 – T11 at the John Deere in his last event, 20th in approach, 5th in SG: T2G, 3rd in SG: OTT, 2nd in ballstriking, 14th in Par 4 scoring, 73rd in Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds, 17th in proximity 175-200 yds, 71st in proximity 200+ yds, 17th in opportunities gained, 20th in birdies+ gained, 17th in DK pts, his putting blows but he’s won several birdiefests in the past

All stats based on last 36 rounds

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup: Keegan, Cink, Kizzire, List, Lebioda, Vegas


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