Tokyo Olympics Golf – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Kasumigaseki Country Club (East Course) – Tokyo, Japan

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7447 yards, Tom Fazio redesign, 4 Par 4s are under 400 yds, 3 Par 4s are over 500 yds, 3 Par 3s are over 200 yards, only one of the Par 5s is drivable in two (two of those Par 5s are over 600 yards), wide tree lined zoysia grass fairways that get narrower around the 300 yard mark, bentgrass greens are huge (every hole at one point before the redesign had two greens) and massively undulating, water is only in play on the 18th hole down the right side of the fairway, relatively no elevation on the course, course doesn’t really map out to any specific ball flight, course is protected by large fairway bunkers all over the course, seems like a second shot placement style course from the pictures of it

Tournament Notes

  • This course last hosted the Asian Amateur in 2010, which Hideki Matsuyama won
  • Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim need to medal (T3) to get exempt from military service requirement in South Korea so they can stay on the PGA Tour
  • No cut event
  • Event starts at 6:30pm ET on Wednesday night

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring, Birdies+ Gained

Corollary Courses

Firestone CC (WGC Bridgestone Invitational)

Field

60 golfer field, pretty good high end of the field with PGA stars and awful low end of the field with a bunch of guys that no one’s ever heard of

Players

Collin Morikawa: 11200: +700 – Coming off his win at the British Open, 1st in approach, 1st in SG: T2G, 10th in SG: OTT, 1st in ballstriking, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 6th in Par 4 scoring 500+ yds, 26th in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 5th in Par 5 scoring, 16th in SG: ARG, 33rd in short game, 47th in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 1st in birdies+ gained, 1st in DK pts

Viktor Hovland: 9900: +1000 – T12 at the British Open two weeks ago, 9th in approach, 5th in SG: T2G, 2nd in SG: OTT, 3rd in ballstriking, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 29th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 21st in Par 4 scoring 500+ yds, 28th in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 2nd in Par 5 scoring, 27th in SG: ARG, 18th in short game, 19th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdies+ gained, 2nd in DK pts

Paul Casey: 9500: +1200 – T15 at the British Open two weeks ago, 3rd in approach, 4th in SG: T2G, 12th in SG: OTT, 5th in ballstriking, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 12th in Par 4 scoring 500+ yds, 5th in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, 8th in SG: ARG, 20th in short game, 29th in putting, 15th in opportunities gained, 8th in birdies+ gained, 5th in DK pts

Corey Conners: 8800: +1800 – T15 at the British Open two weeks ago, 2nd in approach, 2nd in SG: T2G, 3rd in SG: OTT, 2nd in ballstriking, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 35th in Par 4 scoring 500+ yds, 15th in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 15th in Par 5 scoring, 34th in SG: ARG, 30th in short game, 27th in putting, 5th in opportunities gained, 12th in birdies+ gained, 8th in DK pts

Antoine Rozner: 7600: +8000 – Made cut at his last 4 events (British Open, Scottish Open, Irish Open, BMW), 7th in approach, 14th in SG: T2G, 25th in SG: OTT, 8th in ballstriking, 32nd in Par 4 scoring, 39th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 7th in Par 4 scoring 500+ yds, 26th in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 39th in Par 5 scoring, 46th in SG: ARG, 45th in short game, 44th in putting, 8th in opportunities gained, 30th in birdies+ gained, 28th in DK pts

Jhonattan Vegas: 7400: +4000 – T2,T11 his last 2 starts (3M Open and John Deere Classic), 20th in approach, 10th in SG: T2G, 1st in SG: OTT, 6th in ballstriking, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 11th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 44th in Par 4 scoring 500+ yds, 20th in Par 3 scoring 225+ yds, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 31st in SG: ARG, 41st in short game, 38th in putting, 9th in opportunities gained, 7th in birdies+ gained, 10th in DK pts

All stats based on past 50 rounds to give a larger sample size than the typical 36 rounds that I use.

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • With the big gap in talent and pricing on the top end of the field to the scrubs at the low end of the field, roster construction could be tougher this week than usual
  • With a no cut event and such a small field with a huge pricing gap where you could pretty much cross off 1/3 of the field, I’m not playing Draftkings this week.

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