WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

TPC Southwind – Memphis, TN

Course Breakdown

7244 yd. Par 70, plays significantly longer, one of the top 15 hardest courses on tour every year, 7 of the Par 4s are over 450 yds, both Par 5s are reachable, most balls in the water (in play on 10 holes) of any course on tour by a substantial amount (almost 1400 more than the next which is TPC Sawgrass), back 9 is very difficult, holes 17 and 18 here see over 200 bogies or worse through the week, driving accuracy is way lower than tour average (56% vs. 61%), lower GIR % than tour average (60% vs. 66%), narrow and very difficult to hit Zoysia grass fairways, trees, bunkers and water in play if you miss the fairway, Bermuda rough which is hard to judge distance out of but it isn’t too thick or tall, smaller than average Bermuda greens surrounded by bunkers and water, fast (12 on stimpmeter), firm and undulating greens, hot and humid weather here could play a factor

Tournament Notes

  • Replaced WGC: Bridgestone Invitational hosted by Firestone CC two years ago
  • Formerly used to be crappy full field FedEx St. Jude Classic tournament
  • Prior when this became a WGC, a lot of the top end players historically didn’t play this course much (besides Brooks and Dustin) so course history may not be as helpful as in other events due to the difference in field strength
  • SG: Approach is historically 2.5x times more important than SG: OTT here
  • In 2019 when he won, Brooks was 1st in SG: Putting, T10 in Approach and T10 OTT for the tournament
  • The player that ended the week 1st in SG: T2G here won the event 7 of the last 9 years
  • Last year I hit the winner here on JT around 10:1

Key Stats

SG: T2G, SG: Approach, Ballstriking, Par 4 Scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds. (25.9%)

Field

66 golfer WGC strength field – No cut

Defending Champion: Justin Thomas (-13)

Runner Up Last Year: Daniel Berger, Phil Mickelson, Tom Lewis, Brooks Koepka (-10)

One and Done: Sam Burns

Alternate: Lucas Glover

One and Done Considerations: Any elite player, but I’ve used all of them and it doesn’t matter anymore

Players

Brooks Koepka: 10600: +1200 – Most strokes gained here the last 5 years (35.84) with T2,1,5,T17 finishes here the last 4 years, 4th in SG: T2G, 11th in approach, 4th in ballstriking, 6th in SG: OTT, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 11th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 30th in proximity 150-175 yds, 33rd in SG: ARG, 18th in short game, 18th in putting, 9th in opportunities gained, 3rd in DK pts

Jordan Spieth: 10400: +1400 – T30,T12,T60,T13,T3 here the last 5 years, 5th in SG: T2G, 4th in approach, 14th in ballstriking, 30th in SG: OTT, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 19th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 19th in proximity 150-175 yds, 10th in SG: ARG, 6th in short game, 9th in putting, 13th in opportunities gained, 2nd in DK pts

Justin Thomas: 9900: +1600 – 3rd in SG here the last 5 years (33.39) with 1,T12,1,T28,T33 finishes, 9th in SG: T2G, 8th in approach, 16th in ballstriking, 28th in SG: OTT, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 6th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 16th in proximity 150-175 yds, 13th in SG: ARG, 44th in short game, 57th in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 24th in DK pts

Patrick Cantlay: 9300: +2500 – T35,T12,T6 here the last 3 years, 3rd in SG: T2G, 17th in approach, 7th in ballstriking, 8th in SG: OTT, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 5th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 49th in proximity 150-175 yds, 12th in SG: ARG, 16th in short game, 26th in putting, 19th in opportunities gained, 12th in DK pts

Abraham Ancer: 8300: +3300 – T15 here last year, 12th in SG: T2G, 16th in approach, 8th in ballstriking, 11th in SG: OTT, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 3rd in proximity 150-175 yds, 41st in SG: ARG, 19th in short game, 12th in putting, 22nd in opportunities gained, 19th in DK pts

Corey Conners: 8100: +3300 – T30,T27 the last 2 years here, 10th in SG: T2G, 7th in approach, 3rd in ballstriking, 7th in SG: OTT, 8th in Par 4 scoring, 4th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 28th in proximity 150-175 yds, 56th in SG: ARG, 58th in short game, 50th in putting, 14th in opportunities gained, 27th in DK pts

Jason Kokrak: 7800: +5000 – T44 here last year, 23rd in SG: T2G, 21st in approach, 15th in ballstriking, 10th in SG: OTT, 43rd in Par 4 scoring, 19th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 48th in proximity 150-175 yds, 54th in SG: ARG, 20th in short game, 7th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 9th in DK pts

Sam Burns: 6900: +8000 – 32nd in SG: T2G, 15th in approach, 23rd in ballstriking, 51st in SG: OTT, 37th in Par 4 scoring, 46th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 14th in proximity 150-175 yds, 44th in SG: ARG, 27th in short game, 19th in putting, 16th in opportunities gained, 18th in DK pts

Lucas Glover: 6400: +15000 – 26th in SG: T2G, 31st in approach, 30th in ballstriking, 25th in SG: OTT, 18th in Par 4 scoring, 30th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 7th in proximity 150-175 yds, 17th in SG: ARG, 14th in short game, 16th in putting, 21st in opportunities gained, 33rd in DK pts

All stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Spieth, JT, Conners, Kokrak, Burns, Glover

Lineup 2: JT, Cantlay, Ancer, Conners, Kokrak, Glover

Lineup 3: Spieth, Cantlay, Ancer, Conners, Burns, Glover

Lineup 4: Brooks, JT, Ancer, Kokrak, Burns, Glover

Lineup 5: Brooks, Cantlay, Conners, Kokrak, Burns, Glover

Contests:

$5 Double Up (1724 entries)

$5 GPP (50k to 1st) (71343 entries)

$5 GPP (20k to 1st) (19024 entries)


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