We’re already at the last week of the PLL regular season at the University of Albany with some very important games this weekend with the first place seed for a bye week in the playoffs up for grabs for several teams and the game between the Cannon and Chrome to determine who gets in the playoffs between those teams in the last seed.
Two weeks ago in Week 6 in Colorado Springs, I went 3-0 for +2.5 units. Let’s build on that with this six game slate this weekend with some more wins.
Redwoods vs. Whipsnakes (8/13 6:00)
The defending back to back champ Whipsnakes have struggled the last few weeks, only scoring 6 and 7 goals their last two games, including their 13-7 loss to the Redwoods in Minnesota in Week 5. They also haven’t been good defensively, allowing at least 11 goals in every game this season besides their 13-7 win over the Chaos in Week 1 when they were fully healthy. I don’t have much faith in this Whips team this season as I did the last few years when they won their back to back titles. This is one of the biggest rivalries in the PLL and I think the Redwoods end the regular season 2-0 against the Whips. I’ll take the Woods for half a unit in this game that has no playoff implications besides some momentum going into the “real season”. Roll woods!
Archers vs. Chaos (8/13 8:30)
The Archers started the season as the best team in the league but after a few disappointing losses, the first place seed and a bye week is no longer in their control. But they do still have a chance. To get that first seed finish, the Archers need to go 2-0 on the weekend and need the Waterdogs to beat the Atlas. This game should be a defensive battle with the two best goalies in the PLL in Ghitelman and Riordan. I think the Archers get a big win they need here and have a great matchup, averaging 13.6 scores per game vs. the Chaos’ 10.9 as well as only allowing 10 per game vs. the Chaos’ 10.9. Earlier this season when these teams played, the Archers won 12-8 in Week 2 and I think we get a similar result tonight. Since the ML is too expensive, I’ll take the Archers -2.5 for half a unit and the under for half a unit.
Atlas vs. Waterdogs (8/14 4:15)
The Atlas have the easiest path to the #1 seed and a bye week in the first round of the PLL playoffs. The Atlas win and they’re in. The first place Atlas are 6-2 and their young core on offense has been firing, leading the league in shots with 350 and scores with 111. The 5-3 Waterdogs are firing too and right behind the Atlas in both of those categories, with 340 shots and 110 scores. If the Waterdogs win this game and lead the league in goal differential (or the Archers lose one of their games), they get the first place seed. Last weekend the Waterdogs defense was unreal and Dillon Ward has been a brick wall in goal, only allowing 7 or less goals in their last 6 games. I think the Atlas win this game, but not enough to bet against the Waterdogs who found their groove this season. The total on this game of 25.5 is pretty high, but I think that this game still goes over that number. I’ll take the over for a unit.
Cannons vs. Chrome (8/14 7:00)
The most important matchup of the season in a “playoff game” scenario for the Cannons and the Chrome. The winner of this game advances to the playoffs, while the loser is eliminated from the playoffs. Both of these teams are coming into this game with a 2-6 record. I think the Cannons are the better team, with three of their losses coming by only a goal. The Cannons average 2 more scores per game and allow 1 more per game. I think Lyle Thompson, the best lacrosse player in the world coming back to his college stomping grounds where he had one of the most prolific careers in NCAA lacrosse history and Paul Rabil wrap up the regular season with a win and a place in the playoffs. I’ll take the Cannons ML for a unit.
Chaos vs. Redwoods (8/15 2:00)
On Friday night after a long weather delay, the Redwoods ended up losing a close game to the Whipsnakes 14-12 with a huge fourth quarter. The Chaos also played an awesome game late Friday night, where they beat the Archers 11-9 off a late two bomb from Ian MacKay. When these two teams played in Week 3, the Chaos got their first win of the season in an 11-9 game. I think the Woods bounce back here to end the regular season with a win. I’ll take Redwoods -1.5 for half a unit and the under for half a unit.
Archers vs. Whipsnakes (8/15 4:45)
The Whipsnakes got a big win on Friday night after a long train delay to beat the Redwoods 14-12, led by Matt Rambo who added a spark back into the Whips attack. This should be a fantastic rematch between two of the best teams in the PLL after their incredible game earlier this season that came down to a goal as the Whips beat the Archers 15-14. I’d lean the Archers answer back with a win here but won’t be betting it and I’d lean the over as well.
.5u Redwoods ML (-148)
.5u Archers -2.5 (-113)
.5u Archers/Chaos under 23.5 (-103)
1u Atlas/Waterdogs over 25.5 (-113)
1u Cannons ML (-167)
.5u Redwoods -1.5 (-148)
.5u Redwoods/Chaos under 23.5 (-108)
3u PLL Champions: Archers (+190)
Record: 15-20 (-13.84 units)