The Northern Trust – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Liberty National Golf Club – Jersey City, NJ

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 7353 yds, 2 of the 3 Par 5s are reachable in 2 by most of the field, bentgrass throughout, 5 of the Par 4s are 450-500 yds, average width fairways with bunkers in play and water in play on about 10 holes, rough isn’t penal but the fescue outside of it is, lot of big numbers in play because of the water, lot of golfers use less than driver off the tee for accuracy, very quick tiny greens with a lot of slope and undulation, pretty receptive greens, run off areas, bunkers and water surrounding most greens

Tournament Notes

  • First of the 3 events of the FedEx Cup playoffs
  • This course previously hosted the 2019 Northern Trust, The Barclays in 2013 and 2009 in the FedEx Cup playoffs and the 2017 Presidents Cup
  • Top 70 in FedEx Cup standings after this week move on to the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club next week
  • In 2019, every player that finished T15 gained strokes on approach and all but Kevin Kisner (-1.4), Jon Rahm (-0.1), Rory and Spieth (both -0.5) gained strokes ARG 
  • The opening event of the FedEx Cup playoffs has been won by a player in the T25 OWGR 12/15 times
  • 4 of the last 6 winners of the opening playoff event had a victory already in the calendar year that they won
  • 5 of the last 6 winners of the opening playoff event entered the week in the T10 of the FedEx Cup standings
  • 7 of the last 10 winners of the opening playoff event finished T22 in their previous start before winning and were in good form coming into this tournament

Key Stats

Approach, SG: T2G, SG: ARG

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (31.3%), 175-200 yds (20.8%)

Field

Top 125 players by FedEx Cup standings

Defending Champion (TPC Boston): Dustin Johnson (-30)

Runner Up Last Year (TPC Boston): Harris English (-19)

2019 Champion Here: Patrick Reed (-16)

One and Done: Keegan Bradley

Alternate: Seamus Power

One and Done Considerations: I don’t have anyone significant left and already am mathematically long eliminated from this whole thing so none of it matters

Players

Jordan Spieth: 10800: +1600 – T6 here in 2019, 7th in Approach, 8th in SG: T2G, 21st in Ballstriking, 15th in SG: ARG , 1st in Par 4 scoring, 11th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 70th in Fairways gained, 99th in Proximity 200+ yds, 93rd in Proximity 175-200 yds, 6th in Short game, 11th in Putting, 1st in Birdie+ gained, 1st in DK pts

Collin Morikawa: 10400: +1800 – T52 here in 2019 (he was a much less experience player at that point), 1st in Approach, 1st in SG: T2G, 1st in Ballstriking, 67th in SG: ARG , 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 9th in Fairways gained, 59th in Proximity 200+ yds, 4th in Proximity 175-200 yds, terrible putting and short game but he can turn that on any week or just putt average to the field and he’ll make up for it, 6th in Birdie+ gained, 4th in DK pts

Daniel Berger: 9100: +2800 – 4th in Approach, 13th in SG: T2G, 8th in Ballstriking, 88th in SG: ARG , 12th in Par 4 scoring, 58th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 28th in Fairways gained, 26th in Proximity 200+ yds, 2nd in Proximity 175-200 yds, 69th in Short game, 50th in Putting, 30th in Birdie+ gained, 33rd in DK pts

Hideki Matsuyama: 9000: +3000 – T30 here in 2019, 3rd in Approach, 6th in SG: T2G, 12th in Ballstriking, 33rd in SG: ARG , 27th in Par 4 scoring, 56th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 39th in Fairways gained, 91st in Proximity 200+ yds, 12th in Proximity 175-200 yds, terrible in putting and short game, 20th in Birdie+ gained, 11th in DK pts

Paul Casey: 8700: +2800 – 2nd in Approach, 2nd in SG: T2G, 5th in Ballstriking, 11th in SG: ARG , 22nd in Par 4 scoring, 59th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 79th in Fairways gained, 1st in Proximity 200+ yds, 9th in Proximity 175-200 yds, 25th in Short game, 59th in Putting, 15th in Birdie+ gained, 8th in DK pts

Keegan Bradley: 7500: +10000 – T64 here in 2019, 8th in Approach, 4th in SG: T2G, 15th in Ballstriking, 24th in SG: ARG , 42nd in Par 4 scoring, 18th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 31st in Fairways gained, 46th in Proximity 200+ yds, 21st in Proximity 175-200 yds, 82nd in Short game, awful Putting, 46th in Birdie+ gained, 31st in DK pts

Charley Hoffman: 7000: +15000 – Made cut here in 2019, 6th in Approach, 19th in SG: T2G, 14th in Ballstriking, 89th in SG: ARG , 34th in Par 4 scoring, 34th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 67th in Fairways gained, 11th in Proximity 200+ yds, 3rd in Proximity 175-200 yds, 53rd in Short game, 37th in Putting, 10th in Birdie+ gained, 14th in DK pts

Seamus Power: 7000: +15000 – 27th in Approach, 21st in SG: T2G, 34th in Ballstriking, 10th in SG: ARG , 4th in Par 4 scoring, 13th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 69th in Fairways gained, 48th in Proximity 200+ yds, 38th in Proximity 175-200 yds, 27th in Short game, 66th in Putting, 26th in Birdie+ gained, 21st in DK pts

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: T2G (10%)

Ballstriking (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Par 4 scoring (10%)

Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (5%)

Fairways gained (Driving accuracy) (5%)

Proximity 200+ yds (15%)

Proximity 175-200 yds (10%)

Short game (0%)

Putting (5%)

Birdie+ gained (5%)

DK pts (0%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Spieth, Hideki, Casey, Keegan, Hoffman, Power

Lineup 2: Morikawa, Berger, Casey, Keegan, Hoffman, Power

Lineup 3: Morikawa, Berger, Hideki, Keegan, Hoffman, Power

Contests: 

$5 GPP (50k to 1st) (83234 entries)

$10 Single Entry Double Ups (919 entries, 124 entries, 114 entries)


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