BMW Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Caves Valley Golf Club – Baltimore, MD

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7542 yds, Tom Fazio design, 5th longest course on tour this season (11th over last 5 years), 6 Par 4s from 450-500 yds, 3 Par 4s from 350-400 yds and 2 of those are drivable for most of the field, all 4 of the Par 5s are under 570 yds and should be reachable in 2 by the full field if they hit the fairway on their drive, fairways are very narrow, bluegrass and rye rough will be at least 3 inches but isn’t too penal in areas that most golfers will miss and tall fescue if they miss wildly, water in play on 5 holes, course favors right handed golfers who fade the ball, lots of bunkers all over the course, small multi tiered and undulated bentgrass greens (12th smallest on tour)

Tournament Notes

  • 2nd event of the FedEx Cup playoffs
  • After this week, the Top 30 in FedEx Cup standings advance to East Lake for the Tour Championship with starting strokes based on seeding
  • No cut event
  • Form matters in the FedEx Cup Playoffs
  • Historically, the BMW Championship has been set up to play pretty easy with the last 5 winners at -20 or better before last year at Olympia Fields where Rahm won at -4
  • First time a PGA Tour event is being held at this course. It was recently lengthened to allow it to host this event.
  • The Director of Instruction at this course said he expects it to be a shootout and golfers are going to have to take risks to win and that the best player to control their distances wins
  • Last year in 50,000 simulations prior to the tournament, 100% of golfers ranked 1-20 advanced to East Lake and 99.95% ranked 21-23 advanced, really only leaving 7 spots up for grabs to move on to the Tour Championship next week
  • In 2017, when this course hosted the Sr. Players, longer hitters excelled here with Scott McCarron (-18) who won the event finishing 3rd for the season in driving distance and Brandt Jobe who finished T2 finishing 4th in driving distance for the year and every T5 finisher was T25 in driving distance for the year

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Driving Distance

Field

69 golfers – Top 70 golfers in FedEx Cup standings, besides Patrick Reed who’s out with injury and pneumonia

Defending Champion (Olympia Fields): Jon Rahm (-4 in playoff)

Runner Up Last Year (Olympia Fields): Dustin Johnson (-4)

One and Done: Shane Lowry

Alternate: Jhonattan Vegas

One and Done Considerations: who. cares.

Players

Jon Rahm: 11700: +550 – 3,T3 finishes his last two events (Northern Trust and The Open), defending champ of this event, 11th in Approach, 2nd in SG: T2G, 2nd in SG: OTT, 11th in driving distance, 7th in good drives gained, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 13th in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 15th in Par 4 scoring: 350-400 yds, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 36th in SG: ARG, 36th in putting, 25th in opportunities gained, 8th in birdie+ gained, 6th in DK pts

Rory McIlroy: 9400: +2500 – T43 last week at Northern Trust T12 at St. Jude, 18th in Approach, 17th in SG: T2G, 21st in SG: OTT, 2nd in driving distance, 28th in good drives gained, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 37th in Par 4 scoring: 350-400 yds, 55th in Par 5 scoring, 38th in SG: ARG, 44th in putting, 22nd in opportunities gained, 19th in birdie+ gained, 26th in DK pts, too cheap for his ceiling

Victor Hovland: 9100: +2800 – 15th in Approach, 14th in SG: T2G, 7th in SG: OTT, 30th in driving distance, 18th in good drives gained, 29th in Par 4 scoring, 19th in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 24th in Par 4 scoring: 350-400 yds, 18th in Par 5 scoring, 59th in SG: ARG, 30th in putting, 6th in opportunities gained, 13th in birdie+ gained, 20th in DK pts

Scottie Scheffler: 8900: +2800 – T43 last week at Northern Trust, 14th at St. Jude, 35th in Approach, 20th in SG: T2G, 10th in SG: OTT, 23rd in driving distance, 25th in good drives gained, 16th in Par 4 scoring, 48th in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 20th in Par 4 scoring: 350-400 yds, 11th in Par 5 scoring, 29th in SG: ARG, 32nd in putting, 48th in opportunities gained, 5th in birdie+ gained, 12th in DK pts, plays great in elite field no cut events

Hideki Matsuyama: 8800: +3300 – T43 last week at Northern Trust, T4 at the Olympics, T2 at St. Jude, 4th in Approach, 9th in SG: T2G, 24th in SG: OTT, 38th in driving distance, 13th in good drives gained, 19th in Par 4 scoring, 16th in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 47th in Par 4 scoring: 350-400 yds, 31st in Par 5 scoring, 41st in SG: ARG, 66th (AWFUL) in putting, 2nd in opportunities gained, 14th in birdie+ gained, 5th in DK pts

Abraham Ancer: 8700: +4000 – T64 last week at Northern Trust, winner at WGC St. Jude, 20th in Approach, 15th in SG: T2G, 13th in SG: OTT, 64th in driving distance, 3rd in good drives gained, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 6th in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 29th in Par 4 scoring: 350-400 yds, 38th in Par 5 scoring, 44th in SG: ARG, 7th in putting, 26th in opportunities gained, 17th in birdie+ gained, 15th in DK pts

Paul Casey: 8200: +2800 – T64,T5,T15 finishes his last 3 events, 2nd in Approach, 3rd in SG: T2G, 35th in SG: OTT, 18th in driving distance, 8th in good drives gained, 24th in Par 4 scoring, 49th in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 8th in Par 4 scoring: 350-400 yds, 4th in Par 5 scoring, 23rd in SG: ARG, 50th in putting, 11th in opportunities gained, 18th in birdie+ gained, 16th in DK pts, love the value on Draftkings on him

Keegan Bradley: 7700: +6600 – T11 last week, 9th in Approach, 5th in SG: T2G, 19th in SG: OTT, 27th in driving distance, 5th in good drives gained, 18th in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 66th in Par 4 scoring: 350-400 yds, 40th in Par 5 scoring, 18th in SG: ARG, 62nd in putting, 12th in opportunities gained, 41st in birdie+ gained, 30th in DK pts

Jhonattan Vegas: 7100: +10000 – Closed out the regular season with T15 and T2 finishes his last 2 events before The Northern Trust, 27th in Approach, 11th in SG: T2G, 3rd in SG: OTT, 3rd in driving distance, 26th in good drives gained, 27th in Par 4 scoring, 22nd in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds,19th in Par 4 scoring: 350-400 yds, 22nd in Par 5 scoring, 51st in SG: ARG, 59th in putting, 24th in opportunities gained, 23rd in birdie+ gained, 22nd in DK pts

Charley Hoffman: 7000: +8000 – T21 last week at Northern Trust, 10th in Approach, 19th in SG: T2G, 22nd in SG: OTT, 12th in driving distance, 32nd in good drives gained, 23rd in Par 4 scoring, 22nd in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 28th in Par 4 scoring: 350-400 yds, 8th in Par 5 scoring, 54th in SG: ARG, 20th in putting, 2nd in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained, 14th in DK pts 

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: T2G (5%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Driving distance (10%)

Good Drives Gained (golfer hits the fairway off the tee OR the player misses the fairway but still hits the green or fringe in regulation) (5%)

Par 4 scoring (5%)

Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds (10%)

Par 4 scoring: 350-400 yds (5%)

Par 5 scoring (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities gained (5%)

Birdie+ gained (10%)

DK pts (0%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Hovland, Scheffler, Ancer, Casey, Keegan, Vegas

Lineup 2: Rory, Scheffler, Hideki, Ancer, Vegas, Hoffman

Lineup 3: Rory, Hovland, Hideki, Keegan, Vegas, Hoffman

Lineup 4: Rory, Scheffler, Hideki, Casey, Keegan, Hoffman

Lineup 5: Hovland, Hideki, Ancer, Casey, Keegan, Hoffman

Lineup 6: Hovland, Scheffler, Hideki, Casey, Vegas, Hoffman

Contests: 

$10 Single Entry Double Up

$5 $300k GPP ($50k to 1st) (71343 entries)


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