Tour Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

East Lake Golf Club – Atlanta, GA

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7346 yds, Donald Ross designed course with Reese Jones redesign (1994), both Par 5’s are reachable but if the prevailing winds shift (usually the wind is to the golfer’s back) the 18th hole will be tougher to hit by shorter hitters, all 4 Par 3s are difficult with 3 of them being over 200 yds (the other is 193 yds), 5 of the Par 4s are over 450 yds and 5 of them are between 400-450, fairly narrow tree lined fairways, large bunkers in play at the landing zones, rough is thick, toughest fairways to hit on tour (10% harder than tour average, 54% vs. 63%), average driving distance longer than tour average (290 vs. 282), very fast Bermuda greens, firmness all depends on weather conditions, wide variety of large multi-tiered greens with a lot of slope and smaller greens with a lot of back to front slope, need to hit certain spots on greens for realistic birdie chances, greenside bunkers in play on most holes with a majority of them guarding the very front of the greens, lot of prevailing winds here

Tournament Notes

  • Final event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the PGA Tour season
  • New format started last year with the starting strokes for the tournament based on FedEx Cup standings. Win this tournament, win the FedEx Cup and $15 Million
  • Average winning score here is around -10, so that almost completely takes out anyone starting around -2 and E
  • Since 2012, the average finish of golfers that finish T3 here in the prior 3 playoff events is 26th, so current form matters, almost 60% of which had 0 T5s in those 3 playoff events.
  • Some not elite players pop here

Key Stats

SG: Approach, Ballstriking, Par 4 scoring

Corollary Courses

Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – Donald Ross design with some crossover success especially on players that aren’t long off the tee

Field

29 golfers (Top 30 in FedEx Cup standings besides Patrick Reed, who’s out with injury/sick)

Defending Champion: Dustin Johnson (-21, started -10)

Runner Up Last Year: Xander Schauffele (started -3), Justin Thomas (started -7) (-18)

Lowest score relative to Par last year: Xander Schauffele (-15)

One and Done: No One and Done in most formats this week

Players

Instead of my typical format of this since I’m not betting or playing Draftkings this week with this format and this small of a field, here’s the Top 10 golfers that my model generated for the week.

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: T2G (10%)

Ballstriking (15%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Fairways Gained (5%)

Par 4 scoring (5%)

Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds (5%)

Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (10%)

Par 3 scoring 200-225 yds (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

DK pts (0%)

Stats based on past 24 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Starting position matters a lot in DK since the scoring is just standard but the pricing takes that into account
  • Without only 29 golfers in the field, there will be a ton of duplicate lineups in DFS, so you have to really differentiate your lineups leaving money on the table and doing contrarian stacks
  • A lot books will offer regular odds on the tournament winner as well as alternate odds on who has the best score for the four days not taking into account starting strokes, so there’s different ways to look at it since the odds with starting strokes are essentially like live betting the tournament before it even starts

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