Fortinet Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Silverado Country Club (North Course)  – Napa, CA

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7166 yds, most golfers should reach all the Par 5s in 2, birdiefest, 6/10 Par 4s are 400-450 yds (and another is 453), fairways are hilly and there are bunkers guarding the landing areas, driving accuracy is lower here than tour average (~53% vs. 62%), 2 cuts of rough which is not very penal, there are several doglegs, large trees throughout the course, average sized POA greens, slightly elevated greens with some slope and undulation, green side bunkers guarding the front of most greens

Tournament Notes

  • Formerly called the Safeway Open
  • First event of the 2022 PGA Tour season
  • This course has hosted this event since 2015
  • Putting is completely insignificant here
  • A lot of the Korn Ferry Tour grads are in the field for the first time this week

Key Stats

SG: OTT, SG: Approach, Par 4 scoring (400-450 yds)

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (19.3%), 125-150 yds (18.8%), 100-125 yds (17.9%)

Field

146 golfers, much better top end of the field than expected with Rahm, Webb and Hideki

Defending Champion: Stewart Cink (-21)

Runner Up Last Year: Harry Higgs (-19)

Players

Jon Rahm: 12100: +335 – I don’t understand why he would be playing this event, I feel like his price is actually too cheap on DK, completely impossible to bet at +335, T15 here in 2017, 1st in SG: OTT, 7th in approach, 1st in ballstriking, 1st in SG: T2G, 4th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 97th in proximity 125-150 yds, 38th in proximity 100-125 yds, 13th in short game, 26th in SG: ARG, 20th in putting, 13th in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdie+ gained, 1st in DK pts

Hideki Matsuyama: 11000: +1600 – 35th in SG: OTT, 3rd in approach, 6th in ballstriking, 2nd in SG: T2G, 28th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 52nd in proximity 200+ yds, 1st in proximity 125-150 yds, 56th in proximity 100-125 yds, 92nd in short game, 31st in SG: ARG, terrible putting (124th), 4th in opportunities gained, 6th in birdie+ gained, 5th in DK pts

Emiliano Grillo: 8900: +5000 – T29,MC,T41,T28,T26 the last five years here, 9th in SG: OTT, 6th in approach, 3rd in ballstriking, 17th in SG: T2G, 13th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 3rd in proximity 200+ yds, 18th in proximity 125-150 yds, 74th in proximity 100-125 yds, terrible in short game (133rd), one of the worst in the field in SG: ARG (141st), 85th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained, 4th in DK pts

Charley Hoffman: 8800: +4000 – 21st in SG: OTT, 1st in approach, 2nd in ballstriking, 4th in SG: T2G, 7th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 7th in proximity 200+ yds, 20th in proximity 125-150 yds, 32nd in proximity 100-125 yds, 40th in short game, bad in SG: ARG (100th), 21st in putting, 2nd in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 2nd in DK pts

Doug Ghim: 7900: +6000 – T14 here last year, 12th in SG: OTT, 11th in approach, 5th in ballstriking, 6th in SG: T2G, 63rd in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 44th in proximity 200+ yds, 22nd in proximity 125-150 yds, 19th in proximity 100-125 yds, bad in short game (124th), 58th in SG: ARG, one of the worst in the field in putting (141st), 7th in opportunities gained, 28th in birdie+ gained, 46th in DK pts

Adam Svensson: 7200: +12500 – T41 here two years ago, 24th in SG: OTT, 16th in approach, 12th in ballstriking, 5th in SG: T2G, 38th in Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, 11th in proximity 200+ yds, 18th in proximity 125-150 yds, 29th in proximity 100-125 yds, 97th in short game, 11th in SG: ARG, one of the worst in the field in putting (137th), 9th in opportunities gained, 39th in birdie+ gained, 34th in DK pts

Model

SG: OTT (20%)

SG: Approach (20%)

Ballstriking (5%)

SG: T2G (10%)

Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds (10%)

Proximity 200+ yds (5%)

Proximity 125-150 yds (5%)

Proximity 100-125 yds (5%)

Short Game (0%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

DK pts (0%)

Stats based on past 50 rounds


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