Lost my only bet for less than a unit on yesterday’s lousy slate with the Wild losing to the Preds. Let’s get an easy bounce back tonight on this pretty solid seven game NHL slate!
Sabres vs. Lightning (7:00)
After surprisingly winning their first three games of the season, the Sabres have dropped their last two with a 4-1 loss to the Bruins and 2-1 loss to the Devils in overtime. Buffalo’s only allowing an average of 2 goals per game but also only scoring an average of 2.6. I think the regression has to come significantly for the Sabres who I expect to be in a lottery spot to close the season. Tampa is sort of the opposite. The back to back cup champs are 2-2-1 to start the year coming into this game with back to back losses to Colorado and Florida. They’re averaging 3 goals per game but allowing a surprising 4 per game. Even with Brian Elliot confirmed in goal instead of Vaz for the Bolts, I think Tampa should win this game. Likely without much issue. This is the toughest game that Buffalo has played so far this season and I don’t see the Sabres flying around at the level the Lightning should. I’ll take the Bolts ML for a unit and Tampa TT over 3.5 for a unit.
Senators vs. Capitals (7:00)
The Capitals are 3-0-2 to start the season, coming off of a loss on Saturday afternoon where they came back from an early 3-0 deficit but ultimately lost in overtime to Calgary. The Sens are 2-3 with back to back one goal losses to the Rangers where they gave up a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2 and a 2-1 loss to SJ. The Caps are the best team that Ottawa has played this year and I think this is the perfect spot for the Caps to bounce back with a win. I’ll take the Caps here for a unit.
Panthers vs. Coyotes (7:00)
This is the biggest lopsided game of the season before with the Florida Panthers at an astounding price of -400. No NHL team ever should be -400 with the parity in this league and that any team could win on any given night, but this is an easy spot for Florida. The Panthers have started their season fantastic, with a 5-0 record and multi goal wins in four of those games, they’re averaging 4.4 goals per game while only allowing 1.8 goals per game. Arizona couldn’t be farther in the opposite direction, averaging only 1.6 goals per game and allowing an abysmal 4.8 per game. Especially with Spencer Knight starting in goal tonight, I love Florida here. No chance I’m laying the -400 here so I’m betting this game a few different ways. I’ll take Florida in regulation at the still expensive -235 for 1.5 units, Florida TT over 3.5 goals in regulation for a unit and Arizona TT under 2 in regulation for half a unit.
Rangers vs. Flames (7:00)
The Rangers are off to a hot start, 4-1-1 to start the season coming into this game on a four game winning streak, most recently coming back from a two goal deficit to beat Ottawa 3-2 on Saturday afternoon. Calgary’s 2-1-1, beating the Capitals in overtime on Saturday afternoon where they got out to a 3-0 lead in the first period before blowing that lead and then having to get the win in OT. Statistically these two teams match up pretty closely and I’d expect a defensive battle. Under 5.5 is 5-1 in the Rangers games this season, with them grinding out games defensively backstopped by Igor Shesterkin. Calgary’s 2-2 on the under. Neither of these teams are scoring much and both are playing well defensively. I’ll take a shot on the under here for half a unit.
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
Just like clock work, the Maple Leafs are already a joke for Toronto fans with a 2-3-1 start to the season. Their start powered offense is only averaging 2 goals per game while their defense is allowing an average of 3.17. They’re coming into this game on a three game losing streak, most recently getting their shit kicked in by the Penguins 7-1 on Saturday night. Carolina hasn’t played great competition so far in their perfect start, beating Columbus, Montreal, Nashville and the Isles (I will say, the Islanders have the potential to be a GREAT team, but they haven’t showed that much to start the year). In those four games, the Canes are averaging 4 goals per game and allowing only 1.75. Surprisingly when you look at their record, Toronto actual leads the NHL in scoring chances, high-danger scoring chances and expected goals but they’re only scoring at a 5.7% rate, currently ranked 24th in goals for in the league. That’s abysmal with the talent this team has up front. Tonight they go against Freddy Anderson in a revenge game for him. The Leafs should win this game, but they also should have won pretty much every game that they have played in. I don’t trust Toronto to bet on or really against them, so I’ll lay off this game entirely today.
Blue Jackets vs. Stars (7:00)
Unders in Dallas Stars games has been one of the most lucrative trends to bet on in hockey the last few years. Their offense doesn’t generate much (averaging 2 goals per game) and their defense and goaltending lock down boring games (averaging 2.8 goals allowed per game). Under 5.5 is 5-0 so far on Stars games and even in their last game against the Kings on Friday night, they won 3-2 in overtime while being outshot 45-23. To give up that many shots and score at that high of a percentage, while still staying under should stand out. Dallas is 27th in the NHL in shots per game, so they’re not getting the puck on net enough to generate many scoring opportunities. Columbus is even worse, 31st in shots per game. The Blue Jackets are 3-2 on the under 5.5 in their games, with the over hitting in their outlier 8-2 win against the terrible defense in Arizona and a 5-1 loss to Carolina. I’d expect this game to stay under again and I’ll keep riding this trend for as long as it is profitable with a unit on the under 5.5.
Blues vs. Kings (8:00)
The Blues look awesome so far this year, off to a 4-0 start to the season and averaging an impressive 5.5 goals per game. The Kings haven’t been great with a 1-5-1 start to the year. Ville Husso is confirmed in goal making his first start of the season for St. Louis tonight. This dude sucks in goal and I’d expect LA to be able to score some goals on him. At -186, I’m not trusting Husso to win this game that I would’ve been all over in Bennington was in net. I’ll take the alternate over 5.5 in this game for half a unit, which I like better than the Blues TT over 3.5.
1u Tampa ML (-175)
1u Tampa TT over 3.5 (-105)
1u Capitals ML (-157)
1.5u Florida in regulation (-235)
1u Florida TT over 3.5 in regulation (-152)
.5u Arizona TT under 2 in regulation (-129)
.5u Rangers/Flames under 5.5 (-110)
1u Dallas/Columbus under 5.5 (-130)
.5u Blues/Kings over 5.5 (-130)
Record (Regular Season): 30-23-1 (-0.56 units)