Both underdogs I bet yesterday didn’t come through with the Penguins and Sharks both losing, but the Winnipeg Jets winning on Nikolaj Ehlers’ two goals 19 seconds apart in the last minute and a half of the game to steal away their win from the Ducks made my night only a 1 unit loss. I’ll take that. Fun five game NHL slate with some interesting matchups.
Panthers vs. Bruins (7:00)
Florida sits at the top of the NHL standings with a 6-0 record. They’re beating good teams with a great offense, averaging 4.5 goals per game and a good defense and goaltending, only allowing 2 per game. The Bruins have been decent and not too far behind the Panthers with a 3-1 record, averaging 3.5 goals per game and 2.75 goals allowed per game. The B’s haven’t played teams as good as Florida has so far. I’d lean the Panthers win this game at home and I’ll take them here for half a unit. I’d lean the under as well but not enough to bet on it and there’s nothing statistically to really back up that lean, I just think this game ends up being more of a defensive battle than offensive and I’d rather just take Florida straight up.
Capitals vs. Red Wings (7:00)
The Caps have a great offense, averaging 4.33 goals per game, lead by the greatest goal scorer that the game of hockey has ever seen. They have a decent defense but holes in their goaltending. Detroit hasn’t been terrible, with a 3-2-1 record. They haven’t played very tough competition at all yet this year and I don’t expect them to keep up with the scoring that Washington should be able to generate. I’ll take the Caps in regulation for a unit and a half unit on the Caps TT over 3.5.
Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafs (7:30)
This game’s between two teams that are far underwhelming any exceptions that anyone had for them this season. The Leafs have three forwards making $34 million but their offense hasn’t been able to get the puck in the back of the net despite getting shots on goals and generating chances. They’re averaging an abysmal 1.86 goals per game with like the worst shooting percentage in hockey (under 6%). Joke. And their defense and goaltending isn’t great either, allowing an average of 3.29 goals per game. The Blackhawks are a complete wreck. They haven’t gotten a win yet this season, with an 0-5-1 record, averaging only two goals per game and allowing a pretty high 4.5 goals per game. In addition to that, their organization is in shambles with GM Stan Bowman “stepping down” this week amidst a bunch of huge sexual assault cover up case. I’d lean the Leafs win here cause they have to start scoring eventually but I want absolutely nothing to do with this game, especially when Toronto is -220 on the money line. I’ll skip this game entirely.
Stars vs. Golden Knights (8:30)
The Golden Knights have had terrible injury issues this year and have a 2-4 record after getting a big 3-1 win over the Colorado Avalanche last night. Dallas is also another team that’s struggled, they have a 3-3 record and haven’t been able to score whatsoever (averaging 1.83 goals per game). Their defense isn’t too bad though and the trend of unders on the Stars has still been cash money. Vegas is likely starting Laurent Brossoit in goal tonight on the second leg of their back to back which makes me definitely not as confident in betting this under but the trends point to it still going under. I’ll take the under on this game for half a unit. I’d lean Vegas wins because even with all their key players out of the lineup, but with Brossoit in net and playing their third game in four nights, I have no interest in betting either side of this and I’ll just stick to the under.
Oilers vs. Flyers (10:00)
I’d expect this to be a pretty fun game to watch between two teams that look pretty good to start the year. The Oilers still haven’t lost a game (5-0) and McDavid, Draisaitl and Co. are scoring at a high level, averaging 4.6 goals per game, generating a ton of shots (average of 33.6 shots per game) and capitalizing on a ton of them. The Flyers offense has been pretty good as well, averaging 4.5 goals per game. The Oilers also have a fantastic power play, scoring on 47% of those opportunities and the Flyers are 17th in the NHL in PK % and give up the second most penalty minutes in all of hockey. Both defenses are pretty average here. I’d expect a good amount of scoring in this game and the Oilers to get a win at home in likely a close game. The over/under on this game is fucking ridiculous at 7 goals, but I do like the over, so I’ll insanely buy it down to 6.5 for a unit. In addition, I’ll take the Oilers ML for half a unit.
.5u Panthers ML (-130)
1u Capitals in regulation (-137)
.5u Capitals TT over 3.5 (-125)
.5u Vegas/Dallas under 5.5 (-120)
1u Oilers/Flyers over 6.5 (-143)
.5u Oilers ML (-195)
Record (Regular Season): 35-31-1 (-1.76 units)