Last night I had some bad luck on the NHL slate, going 4-6 for -2.56 units, with all the losses coming by just a goal (recap on the blog). Tonight a four game slate with some big mismatch’s to bounce back on at nice prices.
Recapping last night’s games, first I was still profitable on the Flyers game with the 3-0 win over the Yotes. I cashed the Flyers in regulation and the Arizona TT under in regulation but came just a goal short from a 3.5 unit win on this game if Philly had scored one more goal (or even one goal in the first 46 minutes of the game). Dallas and Winnipeg went to overtime tied 3-3 to lose my systematic under by a goal, which I was fine with, not like the Stars under trend was going to go 82-0 on the year. There were several other games that went to OT as well last night. The Wild blew a 3-1 lead to have to win 5-4 in overtime against Ottawa, thankfully. Calgary and Nashville went to overtime and there probably should’ve been a penalty for interference on the game winner, oh well. And then to cap off the night, the Rangers blew a 2-0 lead going into the third period and lost to Vancouver in OT.
Let’s sweep the board and bounce back big tonight.
Blackhawks vs. Hurricanes (8:30)
On Sunday afternoon when the Canes faced off against the Arizona Coyotes (2-1 Carolina win), that was one of the biggest mismatches of the NHL season so far. Tonight’s game between them and the Blackhawks is pretty much just as lopsided with the ice tilted all the way in Carolina’s direction. Carolina’s the last remaining undefeated team in the NHL, a perfect 8-0 on the season. The Canes are tied for second in the NHL in average goals per game (4.13) and the best defensively in the NHL, only allowing an average of 1.5 goals per game. The Hawks finally got their first win of the season in Chicago on Monday night with a 5-1 win over the Ottawa Senators. Chicago’s bottom four in the NHL in goals per game, averaging only 2.2 (driven up by that 5-1 win) and second last in the NHL in goals against, allowing a ridiculously high 3.8 per game, even with Flower getting better each game. Carolina should be too much for Chicago to handle tonight and they’re getting a great price tonight on the road. I’ll take the ML for a unit and a half, the puck line for half a unit, a half unit on the Canes alternate TT over 3 and a half unit on the over. When these teams played last week, Carolina beat Chicago 6-3 and I’d expect similar results again tonight.
Oilers vs. Predators (8:30)
Edmonton’s one of the best teams in hockey. McDavid and Draisaitl are tied at the top of the NHL with 17 points each and they’re both only trailing Ovechkin (9 goals) in goals (7). This offense is incredible, with them tied for second in the NHL, averaging 4.13 goals per game and their scary power play is the best in the league, scoring on 46.2% of their chances. I don’t think Nashville’s offense will be able to keep up with McJesus and company, they’re only averaging 2.78 goals per game. And what I’d expect to be an even bigger factor in this game, the Preds (who have played three games in the last four days, two of which went to OT including last night’s surprisingly 3-2 win over Calgary) won’t have the incredible Juuse Saros in goal to bail them out on the back end. Instead they’re starting rookie Connor Ingram in only his second NHL start. The Oilers should end Nashville’s four game winning streak pretty easily tonight. I’ll take Edmonton in regulation for a unit and a half. I’d also lean the over here but not enough to bet on it.
Avalanche vs. Blue Jackets (9:00)
The Avs haven’t been up to par with the Cup expectations for them with their 4-4 start to the season. They’ve been averaging 2.88 goals per game and allowing 3.38 per game. Not great for a team that has been a favorite to win the Stanley Cup the last two seasons. I think Columbus is pretty much an average team in the NHL, with a 5-3-1 start (none of their wins have been a surprise at all and they’ve played a pretty weak schedule so far) and averaging 2.75 goals for and allowed per game. The Avs are the significantly better team here but without Rantanen, Makar, Toews and Burakovsky in the lineup tonight and Jonas Johansson in goal (who sucks), I don’t see any value to betting them in this game. I’ll lay off this one completely.
Kings vs. Blues (10:00)
The Blues have looked awesome in their 6-1 start to the season, averaging an NHL best 4.14 goals per game while Bin Nasty has been locking it down in net, with St. Louis only allowing an average of 2.14 goals per game (fourth best in the NHL). The Kings suck and although they’re coming off back to back wins against the Sabres and Habs, they’re not a good team. These two teams have played twice already this season and both times the Blues won easily, fist in a 7-3 win on 10/23 and then again in a 3-0 shutout win on 10/25. Even without Ryan O’Reilly, St. Louis should clean sweep LA on the season with a win tonight on the road. This is another game I think is too cheap and can’t pass up the value on, so I’ll take the Blues ML for a unit and puck line for half a unit.
1.5u Carolina ML (-155)
.5u Carolina -1.5 (+155)
.5u Carolina TT over 3 (-159)
.5u Carolina/Chicago over 6 (-110)
1.5u Oilers in regulation (-127)
1u Blues ML (-150)
.5u Blues -1.5 (+170)
Record (Regular Season): 56-55-1 (-4.54 units)