Boring slate yesterday and I went 1-0-1 for a half unit profit with McJesus and the Oilers coming all the way back from down 4-1 to win 5-4 in OT! Huge slate tonight and I’m breaking it all down!
(No video today, I was pretty busy and just ran out of time)
Senators vs. Lightning (2:00)
The Ottawa Senators are a pretty bad team. They’re 3-6-1 and coming into this game with three straight losses to the Blackhawks, Wild and a decimated by injury Vegas team. They’ve been pretty terrible defensively, fifth worst in the NHL, allowing 3.5 goals per game and they’ve given up five or more goals in four of their last five games (only outlier was Dallas). Their offense hasn’t been great either, averaging a measly 2.5 goals per game. Tampa seems to have made things right from their shitty start to the season with three wins in their last four games. They’re averaging 3 goals per game and allowing 3.1. I think Tampa should have a pretty easy time taking care of the Sens today and I’ll take them for a unit on the ML.
Panthers vs. Hurricanes (6:00)
This should be a fantastic team between the best two teams in hockey. Carolina is still undefeated with a 9-0 record and Florida’s only loss came in OT and they come into this game with a 9-0-1 record. The Canes and Panthers are both fantastic offensively, second and third in the NHL respectively in goals per game (4.11,4.1). They’re also the best two teams defensively in the league, with the Canes averaging 1.67 goals allowed and Florida allowing an average of 2.2. I’d slightly lean Florida at home here but this is a coin flip to me of likely the best game of the season so far. I’ll pit my minimum of 0.4 units on this game to go to overtime at +337.
Sabres vs. Red Wings (7:00)
After the Sabres hot start, they’ve cooled off since then and now sit at 5-4-1. They haven’t been playing well on either end of the ice and are on a three game losing streak, losing to Seattle, SJ and LA. They’re back home tonight against the Detroit Red Wings, who are 4-5-2 and on their own four game losing streak to Boston, Montreal, Toronto and Florida. Both of these teams aren’t great on the stat lines. Detroit’s averaging 2.73 goals per game and allowing a fourth worst in the NHL 3.55 goals per game. Buffalo’s scoring an average of 2.9 goals per game and allowing 2.7 goals. The Sabres should win at home in this matchup but there’s no edge in betting either side of it. I’d like the over here and I’ll take it for half a unit.
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins (7:00)
After their 2-1 win over Tampa on Thursday night, the Leafs are on a four game heater with wins over Chicago, Detroit, Vegas and Tampa. They’ve finally started to score some goals and capitalize on their chances. The Bruins are a good team at 5-3, averaging 2.75 goals per game and allowing 2.63. I’d slightly lean the under and the Bruins in this game but not enough to bet on either of them.
Canadiens vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
The 5-5 Vegas Golden Knights should be struggling right now with half their team out of the lineup but they’ve won four of their last five games. Montreal has one of the worst offenses in hockey, second worst in the league averaging just 2 goals per game. Both these teams haven’t been great defensively with Vegas allowing 3.1 goals per game and Montreal averaging 3.33. I’d give the Knights the edge in goaltending with Lehner and in this rematch of last year’s Stanley Cup semi finals where the Habs upset the Golden Knights, I think Vegas gets their revenge with a win here. I’ll take the Golden Knights for half a unit.
Penguins vs. Wild (7:00)
Neither of these teams have been great recently with three losses in their last five games. The Penguins are 4-3-2, averaging 3.22 goals per game and allowing 2.89 goals per game. Minnesota’s 6-3, averaging 3 goals per game and allowing 3.33. I’d lean Pittsburgh at home and the over, but I don’t think either have any value to betting.
Capitals vs. Flyers (7:00)
This should be a fun game to watch between two very good offenses. The Caps are 5-1-4 and fifth in the NHL in goals per game, scoring an average of 3.6. Ovi is tied with Leon Draisaitl at the top of the league stats sheet with 10 goals and third in the NHL in points (behind Draisaitl and McDavid) with 18. They’ve got a decent decent but the goaltending is a little bit shaky and the Caps are allowing 2.7 goals per game. The Flyers are seventh in the NHL in scoring, just behind the Caps with an average of 3.33 goals per game. They’re allowing 2.56 goals per game. I’d slightly lean the Caps here but this should be a good game with both teams scoring. I’ll take the over for a unit.
Blue Jackets vs. Avalanche (7:00)
I had very different expectations of these teams going into the season. Colorado should be a Stanley Cup contender but they’re 4-4-1 and they’re been pretty bad defensively, allowing an average of 3.56 goals per game putting them currently third last in the NHL in that category. Can’t lift Lord Stanley with defense that shitty. They 6-3 Blue Jackets are allowing 2.89 goals per game. Both of these teams are averaging three goals per game. I’d expect the Avs to win this game on the road but I don’t think there’s any value in betting it. I do like the over though and will take that for half a unit.
Jets vs. Islanders (7:00)
Both of these teams have been on pretty good runs lately. The Isles are now 4-2-2 with three wins in their last four games, shutting teams down defensively, allowing a fifth best in the NHL 2.38 goals per game and Ilya Sorokin has two shutouts in those last four games. They’re scoring an average of 2.88 per game. Winnipeg’s 6-2-2 and have also been playing well lately with only one loss in their last seven games. Eric Comrie has been good enough in his three games in Hellebuyck’s absence. The schedule recently has been pretty easy for the Jets and I think the Isles will be a tough test for them. I like the Islanders on the road tonight and I’ll take them for half a unit.
Flames vs. Rangers (10:00)
Last night the Rangers (without Shesterkin in goal) got out to a surprising 4-1 lead over the Edmonton Oilers before Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl worked their manage in a comeback that resulted in the Rags losing 5-4 in overtime. Pretty bad collapse. Both of these teams have been pretty good this season. The Rangers are 6-2-3 and playing great defensively, sixth best in the NHL allowing an average of 2.55 goals per game. Calgary has been great defensively was well, allowing only 2.2 goals per game (3rd in the NHL). The Flames have been good offensively as well, averaging a sixth best in the NHL 3.4 goals per game where the Rangers haven’t been generating a lot of offense, scoring just 3.4 goals per game. The first time these teams played this year, the Flames won 5-1 on the road (with the 5th goal coming at the very end of the game, busting the under). I like Calgary to win this one and will take them, as well as the under for a half unit each.
Coyotes vs. Kraken (10:00)
The Yotes are an awful hockey team. They haven’t won a game yet this year and they’re 0-10-1. They’re dead last in the NHL defensively, allowing 4 goals per game and also dead last offensively, scoring only 1.27. Seattle, who’s coming off a 5-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday, are 4-6-1, averaging 2.73 goals per game and allowing 3.18. The Kraken’s the better team here and much better with Grubauer in goal, and they should beat Arizona. The ML of -210 is too expensive for me to be comfortable betting on so I’ll take them in regulation for a unit.
Sharks vs. Devils (10:30)
Last night the 4-3-2 NJ Devils took their third straight loss to the LA Kings, losing 3-2 in overtime. This team’s been pretty lousy, scoring 2.56 goals per game and allowing an average of 3 per game. The SJ Sharks are having a better season than I expected and are 6-4, averaging 3 goals per game and allowing 2.7 per game. The Sharks are the better team here and I think they should win. I’ll take SJ for half unit.
1u Tampa ML (-185)
0.4u Carolina/Florida to go to OT (+337)
0.5u Sabres/Red Wings over 5.5 (-110)
0.5u Golden Knights ML (-110)
1u Capitals/Flyers over 6 (-125)
0.5u Avs/Blue Jackets over 5.5 (+100)
0.5u Islanders ML (-140)
0.5u Calgary ML (-160)
0.5u Calgary/Rangers under 5.5 (-130)
1u Seattle in regulation (-115)
0.5u Sharks ML (-140)
Record (Regular Season): 64-65-2 (-6.86 units)
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