I’m giving myself a few days off from betting hockey with the bad run I’ve been on, but I’ll still go through every NHL game and give my leans on each of them.
Yesterday I went 1-3 for -1.92 units. Can’t buy a winning day lately on the pucks, which is why I need a few days to re-evaluate how I see these games with no action on them.
Devils vs. Bruins (1:00)
Last season, despite ending the season on opposite ends of the standings, the Devils dominated the Bruins, pulling off huge upsets in five of the eight games they played. New Jersey comes to this game at home today on a big three game winning streak over the Isles, Panthers and Sharks. They’re averaging 3 goals per game and allowing 2.67. The Bruins are 6-5 on the season, averaging 2.73 goals per game and allowing an average of 3 goals per game. Statistically this season and with how these teams matched up last year, I’d lean the Devils as home dogs here…but the Bruins are the better team so I see no value in betting either side of this. I’d also lean the under.
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs (7:00)
Both of these teams are coming into this game on the second leg of a back to back after wins last night at home. With last night’s 2-1 overtime win overtime win over Calgary, the Leafs have now won seven of their last eight. They’re still lousy offensively, averaging a measly 2.53 goals per game despite having the most scoring chances in the league, which is explained by their fourth worst in the league shooting percentage, scoring on only 7.3% of their shots. They’ve been good defensively, seventh best in the NHL with an average of 2.53 goals allowed. The Sabres surprisingly beat Connor McDavid and his Oilers 3-2 last night. They’re scoring and allowing an average of 2.53 goals per game and playing lousy. I’d lean the Leafs win this game on the road. I can’t see the Sabres pulling off upsets against good teams two nights in a row. Both teams are giving their backups the net tonight which makes me lean the over as well.
Senators vs. Penguins (7:00)
Ottawa’s been one of the worst teams in hockey, coming into this game with six straight losses and just one win in their last ten games. They’re averaging a fifth worst 2.31 goals per game and allowing a third worst 3.46 goals per game. Bad on both ends. The Pens haven’t been great lately and are coming into this game with a surprising shootout 3-2 shootout win over Florida on Thursday. They’re decent offensively, averaging 3.08 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.83 per game. With how poorly Ottawa is playing, I’d lean the Pens win this one. I’d also lean the under.
Red Wings vs. Canadiens (7:00)
The Habs come into this game with a surprising 4-2 win over Calgary on Thursday night (I lost both ML and puck line on that one) but they’ve been pretty terrible this season. Montreal is tied for second last in the league in average goals per game at 2.13. They’re also allowing a sixth worst 3.33 goals per game and they’re probably counting down the days for Carey Price to start in goal for them again (he’s not yet, Jake Allen’s in goal). The Red Wings have been decent lately, with three wins in their last four games. They’re averaging 2.87 goals per game but allowing a high 3.2 goals per game. I’d lean Detroit here.
Lightning vs. Panthers (7:00)
The Battle of Florida. After their awesome start to the season, Florida’s dropped their last three game to Pittsburgh, NJ and the Rangers. They’re second in the NHL, averaging 3.86 goals per game and allowing a tenth best 2.57 goals per game with great goaltending. Tampa’s looked much better lately with four wins in their last six games, averaging 3 goals per game and allowing an average of 3 goals per game as well. In the first time these teams played this season, Florida got their revenge for losing in the first round of the playoffs last year with a 4-1 win. I’d slightly lean Tampa at home and the over tonight.
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers (7:00)
Columbus has played pretty well lately, winning three of their last four games and averaging a tenth best 3.09 goals per game. They’re allowing an average of 2.91 goals per game. The Rangers haven’t played too well recently with three losses in their last four but on the season have been stealing games away with Igor Shesterkin’s great play in goal. This game’s a toss up to me based on who sets the pace of play. If the Jackets get their offense going and score a few early, they’ll win and this game will likely go over. If not and the Rangers lock it down defensively, they win in a low scoring game. I’d slightly lean the Rangers.
Jets vs. Kings (7:00)
Both of these teams have been playing great lately. LA is on a shocking seven game winning streak, most recently a 2-0 shutout win in Ottawa on Thursday night. They’re winning with defense and great goaltending, second in the NHL in goals allowed per game at only 2.21. Winnipeg is playing pretty good defensively too after starting the season leaving Hellebuyck out to dry and they’re now eighth best, allowing 2.54 goals per game. They’re averaging 3 goals per game, better than LA’s 2.64 per game. I think there’s value to betting LA at +160 on the road tonight, but would give Winnipeg the advantage for sure.
Hurricanes vs. Blues (7:30)
The Carolina Hurricanes are on the second end of back to back games after their 2-1 loss at home to Philly last night where they gave up both goals in the third period. They’ve looked like a fantastic team on both ends of the ice this season, averaging a third best 3.5 goals per game and they’re the best team in hockey defensively, allowing 1.92 goals per game. The Blues have been great at both ends too, averaging a third best 3.5 goals per game and allowing a fifth best 2.5 goals per game. Tonight both these teams are starting backups in goal with Joel Hofer (never heard of him) for the Blues and Alex Lyon for the Canes. I’d lean the bounce back from Carolina on this game.
Predators vs. Coyotes (8:00)
The Yotes are by far the worst team in hockey. They’re 1-12-1 and the worst team in the league on both ends of the ice, scoring just 1.57 goals per game but allowing 3.93 goals per game. They’re a bad team no matter how you look at it. Nashville’s a pretty average team, at 8-5-1 with great goaltending from Juuse Saros. They’re pretty average on both ends allowing 2.71 goals per game and scoring an average of 2.79. Obviously I’d lean Nashville here but with the expensive money line, the plays I would lean on here would be the Preds in regulation and the Yotes TT under.
Stars vs. Flyers (8:00)
The line on this game makes no sense whatsoever. The Stars are -165 favorites tonight, despite playing like shit. This team has lost six of their last seven games with no scoring, averaging a fourth worst 2.17 goals per game while allowing a 25th 3.17 goals per game with the defense and goaltending from Holtby getting worse by the game, which makes me stop betting the under trend on them. Although the Flyers have dropped off recently, they’re still pretty good, coming off a 2-1 win at Carolina last night with two goals in the third period. Their offense is averaging 2.83 goals per game and allowing a fourth best 2.33 goals per game. I love the value on Philly here even on the second half of a back to back on the road and would lean them with awesome value at +140.
Avalanche vs. Sharks (9:00)
Colorado’s offense seems to finally be clicking and they’re now averaging an eighth best in the NHL, 3.27 goals per game and even without their top player with Nathan MacKinnon out with a lower body injury, they’re scoring goals. They’ve been bad defensively though, allowing a fifth worst 3.36 goals per game. The Sharks have been pretty good this season but come into this game with three losses in their last four games. They’re scoring 2.85 goals per game but only allowing 2.62 goals per game (11th best in hockey). Tonight though their goaltending takes a step back with Adin Hill in net. Even without the Nate Dogg, I’d lean Colorado wins this game, likely by a few goals.
Golden Knights vs. Canucks (10:00)
Vegas, considering all of their injuries are winning way more games than they should and (this sounds stupid for a team I picked to win the Stanley Cup this year) are overachieving. They’ve won seven of their last nines games, averaging 2.79 goals per game and allowing 3 goals per game on the year. Vancouver’s 5-7-2, losing three of their last four games, averaging only 2.5 goals per game and allowing 3, just as Vegas is. I’d lean Vegas at home tonight in the fortress and would also lean the over.
Kraken vs. Wild (10:00)
Minnesota’s been a solid team so far this season at 9-4. Before their 3-2 loss in Vegas on Thursday night, they were on a four game win streak. The Wild are 7th best in the NHL in scoring, averaging 3.31 per game and allowing 3.15 per game. The Seattle Kraken haven’t been good in their debut season, with a 4-9-1 start and most of that can be attributed to the back end. They are only better defensively than Arizona, allowing 3.64 goals per game on average with pretty bad goaltending from Grubauer (3.18 GAA, .882 sv %). I’d lean the Wild on the road here.
None, day off
Record (Regular Season): 79-90-3 (-20.12 units)
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