Another perfect night last night with all of my leans on the two NHL games hitting, so I’m back on track and haven’t had a game wrong in the last two days. Jumping back into it after a few day break on tonight’s eleven game slate! Let’s crush these games!!
Penguins vs. Sabres (7:00)
Both of these teams have been on horrendous stretches lately, with the Sabres coming in at 6-6-2 with just one win in their last seven games and the 5-5-4 Penguins with only one win in their last five and just two wins in their last nine. Brutal and that could be attributed to the defense and goaltending for both teams. The Sabres are allowing 3.07 goals per game and the Pens are allowing 3.29 per game. Both teams have been able to score with the Penguins averaging 2.93 per game and the Sabres averaging 3 per game. With Sid’s back in the lineup, I’d lean Pittsburgh wins this game but not enough to bet on it. I do like the over though and will take it for half a unit.
Maple Leafs vs. Predators (7:00)
Both of these teams have been playing good hockey as of late, the Leafs expected, the Preds not so much. After their slow start to the year, where they couldn’t score for shit, the Leafs are on a fucking heater, winning eight of their last nine games. They’re averaging a low 2.69 goals per game with one of the worst shooting percentages in the league (7.9%) with some of the most scoring chances in the league. They’ve been good defensively though, ninth best in the NHL, allowing 2.63 per game with solid goaltending from Jack Campbell. Nashville’s on a three game win streak as well, winning four of their last five and eight of their last ten. Their goaltending from Juuse Saros has been awesome, with the Preds seventh in the league in goals allowed at 2.6 per game. They haven’t been scoring much either, averaging 2.87 goals per game. I’d lean the Leafs here but there’s no value to it. I do like the under and expect this to be a low scoring game and will take that for half a unit tonight.
Panthers vs. Islanders (7:00)
Last night the Isles lost 4-1 to the Tampa Bay Lightning for their third straight loss. The Islanders have had a disappointing start to the season at 5-5-2 and although their defense and their goaltending from Ilya Sorokin has been great, for a tenth best 2.67 goals against per game, their offense has been pretty non existent, averaging just a fourth worst 2.33 goals per game. The Panthers also come to this game off a 3-2 loss to their cross state rival in Tampa on Saturday night for their fourth straight loss and a big downturn after their very hot 10-0-1 start to the season. Their offense has been buzzing this season, averaging a second best 3.73 goals per game and their defense has been pretty good as well, allowing a seventh best 2.6 goals per game. I’d lean Florida at home here and the under but not enough to bet either.
Rangers vs. Canadiens (7:00)
The Habs have been total dogshit this year with a brutal offense, scoring a second lowest 2.12 goals per game while allowing a fourth worst 3.41 goals per game. They’re a terrible team that are 4-11-2 and they only have one win in their last six games. They also lost Jake Allen to injury now too so their goaltending takes another step back as well. The Rangers on the other hand are 9-3-3 with three straight wins coming into this game. They’re only averaging 2.73 goals per game but their defense has been good and Igor Shesterkin’s been phenomenal in goal, with them allowing 2.87 goals per game. I like the Rangers a lot here at home and will take them for half a unit in regulation. I also like the under and don’t expect the Habs to score so I’ll take the Montreal TT under 2.5 in regulation for a half unit as well.
Flyers vs. Flames (7:00)
Both of these teams have had hot starts to the season but have since cooled down and each of them have three losses in their last five games. Calgary is 8-3-4, averaging 3.2 goals per game and allowing a second best average of 2.13 goals per game. Philly isn’t far behind them defensively with good goaltending from Carter Hart, allowing a sixth best 2.54 goals per game. This should be a pretty close game. I’d give the Flames a slight edge because of the differential of shots these two teams are generating. Calgary’s averaging 34.7 shots per game and allowing an average of 28.2 while Philly is averaging 30.7 shots but allowing 33.5. I’d slightly lean the over here as well but I don’t think there’s any edge in betting any sides to this contest.
Blues vs. Coyotes (8:00)
The Coyotes are definitively the worst team in the NHL, scoring the least amount of goals with an average of only 1.3 goals per game and allowing the most goals per game at 3.93. This team is terrible no matter what stat you look at it and if it weren’t for the lottery system the NHL has in place, I’d already have the Yotes penciled in for the #1 overall pick in the 2022 entry draft. The Blues are on a lousy skid, losing their last three in a row and four of their last five, but they’re still a solid team at 8-4-2 on the season. They’re averaging a seventh best 3.43 goals per game with the second best power play in the league, scoring on 32.4% of their chances. They’ve been good defensively too, allowing 2.71 goals per game (12th in the NHL). The first time these teams played each other earlier this season, St. Louis won 7-4. The Blues ML is WAY too expensive tonight at -305 and as much as that seems like it should be free money, I can’t lay that kind of juice so I will take a unit on the Blues in regulation. I would lean the Blues TT over and the Yotes TT under, but I’d rather just take the Blues in reg and just need them to win the game in sixty minutes here.
Wild vs. Sharks (8:00)
Minnesota’s been very good this season at 10-4, picking up where they left off from their great run last season and they’ve won four of their last five. Their defense and goaltending hasn’t been great, allowing 3 goals per game but their offense has been great, averaging an eighth best 3.36 goals per game. The Sharks have dropped off a bit from their hot start to the year with four losses in their last five games and they’re now 7-6-1, averaging 2.79 goals per game and allowing 2.86. I’d lean the Wild here but not enough for it to warrant any value at -180.
Jets vs. Oilers (8:00)
The 11-3 Edmonton Oilers offense is unreal with an insane league leading average of 4.14 goals per game and a power play clicking at a significantly league leading 41.9% clip (the Blues are the next closest, scoring on 32.4% of their PPs). Draisaitl leads the NHL this season in points (31) and goals (15) with McDavid just behind him with 27 points. Their defense hasn’t been good though, allowing 3 goals per game on average. Their record just doesn’t reflect how bad it is because their offense has the fire power to score enough to win game that most other teams would lose when they give up so many goals. The Winnipeg Jets have been pretty good at 8-3-3, averaging 3 goals per game and allowing a fifth best 2.5 goals per game with great goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck. With the Oilers on the road and on their fourth game in the last six days, I’ll skip this game. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it.
Stars vs. Red Wings (8:30)
Dallas blows. They started off the year as a great under bet (that trend started the season 8-0 but has since in their last five since) because their offense wasn’t scoring and still isn’t as they’re scoring the fifth fewest goals in the NHL, averaging 2.38 goals per game. Their defense was good to start the year but they’ve since dropped off a good amount and they’re 22nd worst, allowing 3.08 goals per game. Detroit’s been overachieving at 8-7-2 with four wins in their last six. Their offense hasn’t been bad, averaging 2.88 goals per game but their defense has been lousy averaging 3.24 (24th worst in the NHL). With two bad defenses, I’d lean the over here. I also think there’s some value to Detroit as +155 dogs on the road, but I have zero interest in betting or watching this game.
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes (10:00)
Mark Stone, the best player for the Vegas Golden Knights is back and healthy now which is a huge surge to a lineup that even through a ton of injury issues have been winning games and they’re 9-6 on the season with wins in five of their last six games and eight in their last ten games. Pretty good for a team that was without half their team and all of their best players. Carolina’s a fucking wagon this year at 11-2, leading the league defensively, allowing only 1.92 goals per game. They’ve also been great offensively, averaging a sixth best in the NHL 3.46 goals per game. I’d lean Carolina here but wouldn’t bet against Vegas at home in this matchup with Stone back in the lineup. This could be a matchup we end up seeing in the Stanley Cup Finals at the end of the season.
Ducks vs. Capitals (10:00)
The Anaheim Ducks have been the biggest shock of the season, especially offensively where they are fourth in the NHL, averaging 3.56 goals per game. They’re 9-4-3 and on a seven game winning streak that if anyone in the preseason told me the Ducks would have at any point in this season I would have told them they were a total fucking idiot. Their defense and goaltending from John Gibson has been decent as well, allowing an eleventh fewest 2.69 goals per game. Troy Terry’s becoming a great young player and he currently fourth in the NHL in points (20) and third in goals (11). Right above him in both of those categories is none other than Alex Ovechkin, with 26 points on the season and 12 goals. His 9-2-4 Caps are on fire as well, coming into this game on a four game winning streak of their own. They’re third in the NHL in scoring, averaging 3.6 goals per game and fourth best defensively, allowing 2.4 goals per game. I’d slightly lean the Caps and the over here in what should be a phenomenal game. Tough to believe because going in the year I would’ve figured this would have been an easy Caps win in a game that I likely wouldn’t have given a fuck about.
.5u Penguins/Sabres over 6 (-110)
.5u Leafs/Predators under 5.5 (-120)
.5u Rangers in regulation (-124)
.5u Montreal TT under 2.5 in regulation (-162)
1u Blues in regulation (-195)
Record (Regular Season): 79-90-3 (-20.12 units)