Last night’s small three game slate went great for me, going 2-0-1 for a unit win. Back on track! Huge eleven game NHL slate tonight to dive into!
Sabres vs. Flames (7:00)
Dustin Tokarski had an incredible 45 save performance in goal for the Sabres on Tuesday night where they stole the game for a 2-1 win over the Penguins in a game they got outshot 46-19. The Sabres are not a good team and that game was an outlier to me defensively and in goaltending. Buffalo is averaging 2.93 goals scored per game and allowing 2.93 goals per game, which falls in the middle of the pack in both of those categories. Statistically, Calgary is a good team, 13th in the NHL in scoring, averaging 3.06 goals per game and the second best defense in hockey, allowing the second fewest goals per game (2.13). But they haven’t been winning games lately, losing six of their last eight games, scoring 2 or less goals in five of those games. I’d lean Calgary wins this game but at -186, I’d rather just skip betting it entirely. Later in the season when there’s less variability, this is a game I’d likely bet the Flames, but I can just see this being a game where the pucks bounce in the wrong direction. I’d also lean the under.
Maple Leafs vs. Rangers (7:00)
These are two good teams coming into this game on four game winning streaks. The Toronto Maple Leafs have won nine of their last ten games and now sit at 11-5-1. They’re only scoring 2.71 goals per game, but their defense and Jack Campbell’s goaltending (leads the NHL in GAA at 1.68) has been winning them games, allowing a sixth fewest 2.47 goals per game. The 10-3-3 Rangers are winning in a very similar fashion, with a struggling offense, averaging just 2.75 goals per game but Igor Shesterkin in goal and the Rangers defense are allowing just 2.81 goals per game. When these teams played a month ago, the Rangers got a 2-1 overtime win on the road in Toronto. I like the Leafs to win this game at home to tie up the season series between these teams but not enough to bet on them to do so at -180. I do like the under here though with two good defenses and good goaltending on both ends and two offenses struggling to put the puck in the back of the net. I’ll take the alternate under 6 for half a unit.
Canadiens vs. Penguins (7:00)
The Habs are one of the worst teams in hockey and the Penguins have been struggling as well, both coming into this team with three straight losses. Montreal is 4-12-2 with the second worst offense in hockey, averaging only 2.11 goals per game and the fifth worst defense, allowing 3.39 goals per game. Terrible on both ends. Pittsburgh isn’t much better at 5-6-4 with the 25th worst defense, allowing 3.2 goals per game. Their offense is a bit better, averaging 2.8 goals per game which gives me a bit of a lean on the Pens here but I have no interest in betting this game with these two shitty teams.
Panthers vs. Devils (7:00)
On Tuesday night, Florida ended their four game losing streak with a big 6-1 win against the Islanders. The Panthers are a very good team at 11-2-3 with the second best offense in hockey, averaging 3.88 goals per game and the eighth best defensively, allowing just 2.5 goals per game on average. The Devils are pretty good this year at 7-4-3 but come into this game off back too back losses Saturday and Sunday to the Bruins and Rangers. The Devils are right in the middle of the league on both ends of the ice, averaging 2.93 goals per game and allowing 2.86 goals per game. I like Florida here at home and will take them for half a unit in regulation. I don’t think the ML is worth it at -195.
Flyers vs. Lightning (7:00)
Both of these teams are having pretty good seasons with the Bolts at 8-3-3, the Flyers at 8-4-2 and both coming into this game with three wins in their last five games. Both offenses have been okay but not great with Tampa averaging 3.07 goals per game and the Philly averaging 2.71. Both these teams have great goaltenders though and have been good defensively. Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.20 GAA, .924 save percentage) and the Lightning have allowed the thirteenth fewest goals in the NHL, allowing an average of 2.79 goals per game. Carter Hart (2.19 GAA, .935 save percentage) has been phenomenal this season after his disappointing sophomore season last year and the Flyers have given up the fifth fewest goals this season, allowing just 2.43 goals per game on average. I think this ends up being a goaltending and defensive battle and like the under here, which I will take for half a unit.
Blues vs. Sharks (8:00)
The Blues come into this game off an embarrassing 3-2 loss in regulation as -315 favorites to the league worst Arizona Coyotes. St. Louis is 8-5-2 but come into this game on four straight losses to the Yotes, Oilers, Hurricanes and Predators. The Blues are scoring the seventh most goals in hockey, averaging 3.33 goals per game and have been good defensively, allowing 2.73 goals per game. The back end takes a step back though tonight with Jordan Binnington getting the night off and a lousy Ville Husso confirmed in goal. The Sharks at 8-6-1 are tied with the Blues for the eleventh fewest goals allowed at 2.73 per game, mainly with James Reimer exceeding expectation with the best save percentage in hockey (.943) and second best GAA (1.71). Their offense is a bit worse, average 2.87 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season a couple weeks ago in SJ, the Blues won 5-3. I’d slightly lean the Sharks here on the road but not enough to bet this game. I’d also lean the under, but not betting that either with Husso in goal for the Blues.
Wild vs. Stars (8:00)
Coming into this game on back to back 5-2 wins over Detroit and Philly, Dallas is now 6-6-2 on the road in Minnesota. They are scoring the eighth fewest goals in the NHL at a low 2.57 goals per game and they haven’t been good defensively either, allowing 3 goals per game (19th in the NHL). The Wild have been even worse defensively, allowing 3.13 goals per game (22nd in the NHL). Their offense has been good though, scoring a ninth best 3.2 goals per game. I’d lean Minnesota and the over in this game tonight, but not enough to bet either of them.
Oilers vs. Jets (9:00)
The Oilers lead the NHL in offense, averaging an impressive 4 goals per game. 1.33 of those goals are coming on their lethal power play and they score on an insanely high 42.6% of those man advantage opportunities. Draisaitl leads the league with 33 points and 17 goals and McDavid’s right behind him with 29 points and leads the league with 19 assists. The Edmonton defense hasn’t been good though, allowing 3.13 goals per game (22nd in the NHL). That back end is even worse tonight with Stuart Skinner confirmed to start in goal for the Oilers, who’s 0-2 in his two starts this season. The Jets have a pretty good offense as well, averaging 3.13 goals per game (tenth best in the NHL) but they’re much better defensively and in goal, allowing the sixth fewest goals per game at just 2.47 goals per game. Just like in the first round of last year’s playoffs where the Winnipeg swept the Oilers and the first time time they played this season when the Jets won 5-2, I’d lean the Jets win this one again but not enough to bet against the Oilers to outscore their defensive problems. I do like the over in this game, but I hate betting over 6.5’s and the alternate over 6 is cheap enough at just -122, so I will take that for half a unit.
Coyotes vs. Blue Jackets (9:00)
The Yotes come into this game in the dirty desert off only their second win of the season, a 3-2 shocker on the road in St. Louis Blues on Tuesday night. They have the worst offense in hockey, averaging only 1.63 goals per game and allowing a league worst 3.81 goals per game. This team is fucking atrocious. Columbus has been a pretty solid team this year at 8-5 and the Blue Jackets come into this game with the eighth most goals per game, averaging 3.23 goals per game. They haven’t been too great defensively, allowing 3.08 goals per game (20th in the NHL). I don’t expect that to be a problem though against the Yotes. Arizona’s fucking awful and I can’t see any way they win two games in a row. I’ll take the Jackets for a unit. The first time these teams played each other this season, Columbus won 8-2 and it wouldn’t shock me to see a result like that again.
Golden Knights vs. Red Wings (10:00)
Vegas, even with all of their injuries are 9-7 on the season, averaging 3 goals per game and allowing 3.13 goals per game. As their key players come back from injury, they’ll get better and better each game. Detroit, despite losing three of their last four games have been having a decent season and a big improvement from last year at 8-8-2. They’re scoring 2.83 goals per game and allowing 3.3 goals per game. I like Vegas to win this one at home to get revenge on the Red Wings 5-2 win on November 7th and will take my Golden Knights for half a unit.
Ducks vs. Hurricanes (10:00)
With a 12-2 record, the Carolina Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the NHL. They have the best defense in the league with great goaltending from Freddy Anderson (1.77 GAA, .938 save percentage), they’re only allowing 1.93 goals per game. Their offense has been very good too, fifth best in the NHL, averaging 3.5 goals per game. The Ducks have been the biggest shocker of the season, at 10-4-3 and lead by Troy Terry (21 points, 11 goals) and they’re scoring the fourth most goals in the league at 3.53 per game. John Gibson’s been pretty good in goal and they’ve allowed the tenth fewest goals per game, an average of 2.65. I’d lean Carolina and the over here but not enough to bet either of them.
.5u Leafs/Rangers under 6 (-134)
.5u Florida in regulation (-121)
.5u Tampa/Philly under 5.5 (-110)
.5u Oilers/Jets over 6 (-122)
1u Blue Jackets ML (-165)
.5u Golden Knights ML (-155)
Record (Regular Season): 84-92-4 (-20.12 units)
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