Last night I broke even going 2-2 on the small three game slate but tonight we have the biggest slate of the season before Thanksgiving with 14 games. HUGE NHL slate!
Sabres vs. Bruins (7:00)
The 7-9-2 Sabres are on a three game losing streak coming into this game and they’ve only got two wins in their last eleven games. This team went from their hot start to falling and falling in the standings to what I’d guess is a lottery team by the end of the season. The Bruins have historically crushed the Sabres and the B’s already beat Buffalo this year 4-1 on October 22nd. The Bruins are 9-6 with three wins in their last four games. The Bruins average 3 goals per game and the Sabres average 2.89 goals per game. Goals allowed is a pretty big discrepancy between these teams with the B’s allowing 2.87 goals per game and the Sabres are allowing the fifth most goals, an average of 3.39 goals per game. Buffalo’s starting Aaron Dell in net tonight who’s pretty bad with an 0-3 record, 3.72 GAA and .874 save percentage. I love the Bruins in this game to shit on my Sabres and will take them in regulation for half a unit since the ML is too expensive and parlay the ML with the Caps ML for a unit (see reasoning on that game below).
Panthers vs. Flyers (7:00)
Last night the Flyers got embarrassed in 4-0 shutout loss to the Lightning (hit the under pretty easy on that game) for their third straight loss and fourth in their last five games. They’ve now dropped to 8-6-3 on the year and despite their tenth fewest 2.71 goals allowed per game, their offense is averaging the seventh fewest 2.53 goals per game. And since Carter Hart was in goal last night, Martin Jones likely gets the nod tonight which is a step backwards for them on the back end. Florida comes into this game on a three game win streak to go to 13-2-3 on the season, with a perfect 10-0 record at home in Sunshine, FL. They’re averaging the second most goals in the league, 3.94 per game and they’re allowing the seventh fewest at 2.5 per game. The first time these teams played each other this year, Florida won 4-2 in Philly on October 23rd and I’d think they move to 2-0 against them tonight. I’ll take Florida in regulation for half a unit.
Devils vs. Wild (7:00)
Both these teams come into tonight with three losses in their last five games. Minnesota is 11-6-1 with the fourth most goals per game in the league, averaging 3.5 goals per game. Their defense and goaltending hasn’t been good though, allowing 3.22 goals per game, ninth worst in the NHL. New Jersey is a very average team to me with an 8-5-3 record and both scoring and allowing an average of 2.94 goals per game. I like the Wild in this one and will take them for half a unit, I’d expect them to outscore the Devils on the road and get a win.
Penguins vs. Canucks (7:00)
Pittsburgh has gotten much healthier with most of their key players (besides Malkin) back in the lineup and come into tonight’s game at home on a three game win streak and an 8-6-4 record on the season. They’re averaging 2.94 goals per game and allowing an eleventh fewest 2.72 goals per game. Vancouver is atrocious, especially defensively just leaving Thatcher Demko out to dry to the point where even his good goaltending can’t save them. They’re allowing 3.21 goals per game (tenth worst in the NHL) and just scoring a fifth worst 2.37 goals per game. I like the Penguins to win this game and I’ll take them in regulation for half a unit.
Capitals vs. Canadiens (7:00)
This is a pretty lopsided matchup between a very good 11-3-5 Washington Capitals team and a very shitty 5-13-2 Montreal Canadiens team. The Habs come into this game with a 6-3 win against Nashville on Saturday that ended a four game losing streak for them. This team blows on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring a fourth fewest 2.2 goals per game and allowing a fourth worst 3.5 goals per game. The Caps are quite the opposite, scoring a seventh most 3.37 goals per game and allowing a fourth fewest 2.32 goals per game. I love the Caps here and along with my ML parlay with the Bruins, I’ll take the Caps in regulation for half a unit.
Blue Jackets vs. Jets (7:30)
Both of these teams have been pretty solid this year and they’re winning games in pretty different ways. The Winnipeg Jets are 9-5-4 but come in this game on a three game losing streak, they’re averaging 2.83 goals per game but their defense and great goaltending from Hellebuyck is allowing a sixth fewest 2.44 goals per game. Columbus is 10-6, scoring an impressive 3.44 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL but they’re allowing 3.19 goals per game. I think Winnipeg’s the slightly better team here but it’s too close for me to make a pick to bet on. I’d lean the over as well but could see Hellebuyck steal that away if the Jets win. I’ll skip this game entirely.
Red Wings vs. Blues (7:30)
The Blues are 10-6-2 on the season, scoring a ninth most 3.33 goals per game and have the second best power play percentage in the league, scoring on 28.8% of those chances. Their defense and goaltending has been good, allowing a ninth fewest 2.67 goals per game on average. Tonight they’re starting Ville Husso in goal, who sucked last year but in his two starts this year has a 2-0 record with a shutout, an impressive 0.5 GAA and a .984 save percentage. I don’t think this kid’s that good though and would definitely expect regression from that. The Red Wings are 8-9-3, averaging 2.7 goals per game and allowing a sixth worst 3.35 goals per game. St. Louis should win this game on the road in Detroit tonight but they’ve been so inconsistent lately so I’ll just lay off betting this game.
Islanders vs. Rangers (8:00)
In their two games in the new barn, the Isles have been without half their lineup, out with covid…I won’t get into that bullshit and just focus on the game. The 5-8-2 Islanders have sucked this year, especially offensively, averaging only 2.07 goals per game while allowing 3.07 goals per game. The 11-4-3 Rangers offense hasn’t been dazzling anyone either, scoring just 2.78 goals per game. Their goaltending from Shesterkin has been fantastic and their defense drains the energy out of games to win. I like the Rangers to beat a decimated Isles team tonight in this NYC rivalry game and will take them for a unit.
Predators vs. Golden Knights (8:00)
Vegas is finally getting healthy with all of their star players slowing joining their lineup. They’re now 11-8 on the year and come into this game with five wins in their last seven games. They’re averaging 3.05 goals per game but allowing 3.11. I wouldn’t look far into those stat lines though with all the injuries this team played through. Nashville is 10-7-1 with three wins in their last five as well, scoring 2.72 goals per game and allowing 2.78 per game, which is exceeding my expectations for them this year. I’d lean Vegas in this game and I’ll take them for half a unit at the dog price of +110.
Avalanche vs. Ducks (9:00)
Coming into the season, everyone expected the Colorado Avalanche to be an offensive powerhouse and they’re living up to that with the most goals per game, averaging 4 goals per game. The Ducks, no one expected to be as good as they are at 10-6-3 and Troy Terry’s on a heater with 22 points and 10 goals on the season and their offense is averaging a tenth best 3.32 goals per game. The Ducks are way better defensively though, allowing an eighth fewest 2.63 goals per game with Colorado allowing an eighth most 3.27 goals per game. I like the Avs to win this game to extend their five game winning streak but its not worth the -245 money line to me. I expected the over/under on this game to be 6 but at 5.5, I can’t pass it up so I will take the over here for half a unit.
Coyotes vs. Oilers (10:00)
Last night in a 4-1 loss in Dallas, Connor McDavid got kept off the score sheet for the first time this season. The Oilers are 13-5 with the third most goals per game, averaging 3.72 per game lead by their insane 38.2% power play and the double headed monster of Leon Draisaitl who leads the league with 36 points and 18 goals and Connor McDavid, with 32 points and 20 assists. Their defense and goaltending kind of sucks though, allowing 3 goals per game. Arizona has shockingly won their last two games, 2-1 OT winners over Detroit and LA for three wins in their last four games after their 1-13-1 start to the season. Their offense blows, averaging an NHL worst 1.79 goals per game and they’re not any better defensively, allowing a third worst 3.53 goals per game. I like the Oilers to answer back after their loss last night with what should be an easy win tonight and will take them for half a unit in regulation.
Kings vs. Maple Leafs (10:00)
After their abysmal 2-4-1 start to the season, the Leafs are on a warpath with only two losses in their last 13 games. Their offense is still slacking, averaging just an eighth fewest 2.55 goals per game but they have the third fewest goals allowed per game (2.25) and Jack Campbell is having one of the best seasons between the pipes for them (1.66 GAA, .944 save percentage). LA is 8-7-3 and come in this game on a four game losing streak, averaging a sixth worst 2.44 goals per game but their defense is right there with Toronto’s allowing a fifth fewest 2.39 goals per game. When these teams met in Toronto on 11/8, the Kings blew out the Leafs 5-1. I don’t expect that to happen again and think the Leafs win this one. I’ll take Toronto for half a unit.
Kraken vs. Hurricanes (10:00)
This game is so lopsided to me. Seattle’s been brutal, with a 5-12-1 record and giving up the most goals in hockey, an average of 3.78 goals per game. They haven’t been scoring much either at an average clip of 2.89 goals per game. Carolina’s coming into this game off a 2-1 overtime loss in San Jose on Monday night but they’re one of the best teams in hockey with a 14-2-1 record. They have the second best defense in the NHL, allowing only 2 goals per game and the eighth best offense, averaging 3.35 goals per game. I think the Canes have a pretty easy bounce back win tonight in Seattle. I’ll take Carolina ML for a unit at the much too cheap price of -150.
Sharks vs. Senators (10:30)
Ottawa blows this season and they’re one of the worst teams in hockey with a 4-11-1 record and allowing a second worst in the league 3.69 goals per game. The Sharks haven’t been great either at 9-8-1 but their defense and goaltending is much better, allowing 2.78 goals per game. Both of these offenses haven’t done much either with them both averaging 2.56 goals per game. I’d lean the Sharks win this one at home but not enough to bet on it. I’d also slightly lean the under.
1u parlay: Bruins ML/Caps ML (+104)
.5u Bruins in regulation (-157)
.5u Florida in regulation (-139)
.5u Wild ML (-125)
.5u Penguins in regulation (-127)
.5u Caps in regulation (-125)
1u Rangers ML (-130)
.5u Vegas ML (+110)
.5u Colorado/Anaheim over 5.5 (-130)
.5u Oilers in regulation (-132)
.5u Leafs ML (-170)
1u Carolina ML (-150)
Record (Regular Season): 102-108-4 (-20.4 units)