I ended November with a bang last night, going 5-1 an crushing the slate for a 3.38 units win! Let’s start December off hot with some winners on tonight’s six game NHL slate!
Rangers vs. Flyers (7:00)
The Flyers had a pretty good start to the season at 8-4-2 but have since dropped their last six straight games and they’re now 8-8-4. Not great. They’ve dropped off significantly, especially on offense where they are now seventh last in the league in scoring, averaging only 2.45 goals per game. On the back end, even with Carter Hart playing pretty well in goal (2.67 GAA, .920 save percentage), they’re allowing 2.95 goals per game (17th in the NHL). The Rangers come into this game with a 13-4-3 recored and 5-1-1 at home in MSG with only one loss in their last eight games. Igor Shesterkin and the Rangers have been very good defensively, allowing a tenth fewest 2.7 goals per game and their offense has been much improved in their recent run, now averaging 2.95 goals per game. I like the Rangers a lot here in this turnpike rivalry game and I’ll take them for a unit in regulation since the moneyline at -200 is a bit too expensive for me to want to lay on this.
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche (7:30)
This should be an awesome matchup between two of the hottest teams in the NHL. The Avalanche are 11-6-1 and come into this game with only one loss in their last eight games and the Maple Leafs are 16-6-1 and have just two losses in their last 16 games. Both fantastic. Colorado has the top offense in hockey, averaging an impressive four goals per game. They haven’t been great defensively though, allowing a tenth most 3.11 goals per game. The Leafs have been the opposite. They’re allowing the second fewest goals per game, an average of 2.13 per game and Jack Campbell’s been the best goaltender in the NHL with an insane 1.64 GAA and a .946 save percentage. Their offense has been very good recently but on the season are still averaging just 2.87 goals per game. I’d slightly lean the Leafs at home here but this is a coin flip game for me that I don’t see much value on. If Toronto dictates a defensive game, the Leafs win. If it becomes back and forth scoring game, the Avs win it. No action for me.
Senators vs. Canucks (7:30)
Both of these teams fucking blow. Ottawa comes into this game with a 4-14-1 record and a five game losing streak with only one win in their last twelve games. They’re scoring a sixth fewest 2.42 goals per game and allowing the most goals in hockey, a huge 3.84 per game. Vancouver isn’t any better. They’re 7-14-2 and before their 2-1 win over the Habs in Montreal on Monday night, they only had one win in their previous ten games. They’re scoring even less than the Sens have, averaging a fourth fewest 2.26 goals per game and allowing the eighth most goals in hockey, 3.17 per game. I’d slightly lean the Canucks in this game on the goaltending advantage alone of having Thatcher Demko but I have no interest in betting them on the road in this shitty game. I’d also lean the over since both defenses are trash and even these lousy offenses should be able to score.
Red Wings vs. Kraken (7:30)
Last night the Red Wings pulled off a nice 2-1 win against the Bruins that was pretty fun to watch, even with no action on it in a game that they got outshot 42-15. That was their third straight win and they’re now 11-9-3 on the season. They’re averaging an eleventh fewest 2.74 goals per game and allowing a ninth most 3.13 goals per game. Seattle after their atrocious 4-12-1 to their franchise’s inaugural season have rattled off four wins in their last five games with wins over really good teams for Washington, Carolina and Florida (along with Buffalo but they stink) to improve to 8-13-1. They’ve finally gotten some good goaltending in those games and their offense has woken up a bit. On the season they aren’t great offensively, averaging 2.95 goals per game and they’re third worst in the league in goals allowed, with a high average of 3.5 per game. With Detroit on the second leg of a back to back here, I like the Kraken to win this one and will take them for half a unit.
Oilers vs. Penguins (10:00)
The Oilers have been one of the best teams in the NHL this season and they’re 15-5 on the year and 8-1 at home in Edmonton. Draisaitl, who leads the league in points (40) and goals (20) and McDavid, who leads the league in assists (22) and is third in points (36) have been on fire, and this offense is averaging the second most goals in hockey, 3.75 per game. They haven’t been great on the back end though, allowing 2.95 goals per game. The 10-7-5 Penguins come into this game with back to back losses against Calgary (2-1 in a shootout) and Montreal but prior to that they were on a five game win streak that included three shutouts for Tristan Jarry. Jarry’s back in goal tonight and has played great this season (1.85 GAA, .938 save percentage). They’re averaging just 2.82 goals per game but allowing the fifth fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.59 goals per game. This should be a pretty good game that I’d slightly lean the Oilers in. If the Pens can find a way to shut down McDavid and Draisaitl they should be able to win, but if not, the Oilers offense has enough firepower to outscore the Pens. I’ll stay off this game.
Ducks vs. Golden Knights (10:00)
The Ducks blew a three goal lead in the third period last night against the LA Kings before getting a 5-4 win in a shootout for just their second win in their last six game. On the season, they’ve been surprisingly good with a record of 12-8-3 and they’re scoring the ninth most goals in hockey, an average of 3.22 goals per game and they’re 14th in goals allowed per game, allowing an average of 2.78 per game. Anthony Stolarz is projected in goal for the Ducks tonight though on the second half of this back to back for them, who’s a big step back from their #1, John Gibson. Vegas now that they’re healthy have been very good lately and have improved to 12-9 on the season after their lousy 1-4 start to the year. They are scoring the eleventh most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.1 per game and allowing an eleventh most 3.05 per game. I like Vegas to win this game and will take them for a half unit along with the Vegas TT over 3 for a unit and the over 5.5 on the game for half a unit. I don’t think Stolarz will be able to handle the Knights healthy offense.
1u Rangers in regulation (-118)
.5u Kraken ML (-110)
.5u Vegas ML (-170)
1u Vegas TT over 3 (-141)
.5u Vegas/Ducks over 5.5 (-125)
Record (Regular Season): 133-122-4 (-12.98 units)
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