Last night was another profitable one for me going 3-2, winning 1.1 units. Let’s keep rolling with tonight’s nine game NHL slate.
Canadiens vs. Avalanche (7:00)
Last night the Avs got embarrassed in Toronto as the Maple Leafs hung eight goals in an 8-3 lost for Colorado on Jonas Johansson, who got the last second start in goal due to injury after Keumper was already “confirmed”. That drops them to 11-7-1 on the season. They’re still the best top scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.95 goals per game. They aren’t great defensively this season and going from Darcy to Johansson in goal is an even bigger step back, as they’re allowing a sixth most 3.37 goals per game. The Habs are one of the worst teams in the NHL at 6-16-2. This team is brutal on both ends of the ice, averaging a fourth worst 2.29 goals per game and allowing a second most 3.54 goals per game. The Avs are still a great team and even if Johansson on the second leg of a back to back gives up more goals than he should, I still like Colorado to get a bounce back win here and outscore them. I’ll take the Avs in regulation for half a unit. I don’t mind the ML but at -200 I’d rather risk less on it and go with them to get the win in 60 minutes.
Panthers vs. Sabres (7:00)
Real lopsided matchup here. My Buffalo Sabres are pathetic lately with only one win in their last eight games and only three in their last 15, giving them an 8-11-3 on the year. They’re scoring an average of 2.86 goals per game but allowing a third worst in the NHL 3.5 goals per game. Their back end is atrocious. Florida’s 15-4-3, one of the top teams in the NHL this season, coming into this game with a great 5-4 comeback win against the Caps on Tuesday that they won with less than fifteen seconds left in the game. They have the third highest scoring offense in the league, averaging 3.73 goals per game and allowing the eighth fewest, 2.64 per game. I love Florida to win this game and I’m loading up on them with a unit on them in regulation (ML is way too expensive at -335) and a unit on Florida TT over 3.5.
Lightning vs. Blues (7:00)
These teams just played a great game on Tuesday night where after Tampa blew a 3-0 first period lead to end up losing 4-3 in a shootout to the Blues in St. Louis. Tonight, the Bolts get a rematch at home in Tampa. The Lightning come into this game 12-5-4 and the Blues are 12-7-3. Statistically these teams are very similar with Tampa averaging 3.1 goals per game and allowing 2.76 per game and St. Louis averaging 3.32 and allowing 2.77. On Tuesday, Tampa started their backup goalie against Binnington and tonight’s the opposite with Husso going against Vasilevskiy. I like Tampa to win this one to tie up the season series at home. I’ll take Tampa for a unit. I like the over and Tampa’s TT over but not enough to bet either, so I’ll just roll with the ML.
Capitals vs. Blackhawks (7:00)
The Caps come into this game at 14-4-5 off a disappointing loss on Tuesday where they gave up four third period unanswered goals to Florida including the game winner with 15 seconds left to piss away the game and lose 5-4. When you look at the shot totals in that game though where they got outshot 51-27, that makes more sense. Washington has the fifth most goals per game in the show, averaging 3.56 per game and they’re allowing the fourth least, 2.48 goals per game. The Blackhawks have been much better as of late compared to their garbage start to the season but they still aren’t a good team. They’re 7-12-2, averaging a third fewest 2.1 goals per game and allowing an eighth most 3.19 per game. I really like Washington at home tonight and will take them for a unit.
Hurricanes vs. Senators (7:00)
The Sens might be the worst team in hockey (maybe even worse than Arizona). They’re even getting blown out by the shitty teams as they lost 6-2 against Vancouver last night for their sixth loss in a row and their twelfth loss in their last 13 games. This team’s a complete joke, averaging only 2.4 goals per game (sixth fewest in hockey) and allowing the most goals per game, an average of 3.95 per game. The 15-5-1 Canes are on the opposite end of the stat sheets, averaging 3.19 goals per game (eleventh most in hockey) and allowing the third fewest, 2.24 per game. Carolina’s had some covid issues lately, dropping four of their last five games after their 14-2 start to the season and I like them to get a big get right win tonight. Even though its expensive, at -210, I’ll take the Canes in regulation for a unit and their TT over 3.5 for half a unit.
Islanders vs. Sharks (7:30)
After having two games postponed for COVID issues, the Isles are back in action tonight at home with a lot of their players returning to their lineup against the SJ Sharks. The 5-10-2 Islanders are on an eight game losing streak coming into this one and they still haven’t won since opening their new arena four games ago. They have scored the second fewest goals in hockey, an average of only 1.88 per game and they’re allowing 3 goals per game. The Sharks are 12-9-1 and have won four of their last five games. They’re averaging 2.73 goals per game and allowing 2.69 goals per game. I’d slightly lean the Sharks here but not enough to bet it with the Islanders getting healthier and probably due for a win, so I’ll skip this game. I’d lean the under.
Predators vs. Bruins (8:00)
Both these teams are in the middle of the pack in the NHL and pretty similar statistically. The Bruins are 11-8, averaging 2.95 goals per game and allowing 2.79 goals per game. They’re still without a suspended Brad Marchand, which as we saw in their 2-1 loss to Detroit on Tuesday is a big impact on the lineup because with Taylor Hall bumped up to the Perfection line in his absence, their second line and below are non factors. Usually one guy out of the lineup isn’t a huge impact to a team, but this one is. The Preds are 12-9-1, averaging and allowing 2.86 goals per game. I think the Bruins are a slightly better team than the Predators, but with this game in Smashville, I don’t think there’s any edge in betting it. I’d slightly lean the under as well but Nashville’s games have hit the over in five of their last six so I’ll stay off this game entirely.
Wild vs. Devils (8:00)
Minnesota’s a wagon this year, coming into this game 15-6-1 and on a four game win streak. Their offense is spectacular, averaging a fourth most 3.68 goals per game and their defense and goaltending is allowing 2.96 goals per game. So their good offense is outscoring their back end problems. The Devils are allowing 3 goals per game on average but scoring 2.9 per game and at 9-7-4, come into this game with three losses in their last four games. Last week in NJ, the Wild beat the Devils 3-2 in a shootout. With this game in Minnesota, I think the Wild have an easier time getting the win and I’ll take them for half a unit.
Stars vs. Blue Jackets (8:30)
After their slow start to the season, Dallas has been very good recently with five straight wins coming into tonight’s game. They have an 11-7-2 record and they’ve been good at home, with a 7-2-1 record in American Airlines Center. They’re now averaging 2.8 goals per game and allowing 2.75 per game. They’ve only scored less than three goals twice in their last twelve games and haven’t allowed more than two goals in their last five. Columbus comes into this game at 12-8 on back to back losses to Nashville (6-0) and St. Louis (6-3). They’ve been very good offensively this season, averaging an eighth best 3.25 goals per game but they’ve also allowed a seventh most 3.25 goals per game. Their back end gets even worst tonight with the Blue Jackets recalled their prospect goalie Daniil Tarasov who hasn’t been great in the AHL (he’s also played in the KHL) to make his NHL debut tonight with Korpisalo and Merzlikins ruled out of the lineup with illnesses. The last time these teams played on 10/24, the Jackets won 4-1, but these are pretty different teams now than they both were then. I’m all over this game. I’ll take the over for a unit, expecting both teams to score, a unit on the Stars in regulation and a unit on the Star TT over 3.
Kings vs. Flames (10:30)
Calgary was a team I expected to be sellers at the deadline but they’ve been really good this year. They’re 13-4-5 and they’ve won five of their last six games. They ave the ninth most goals in hockey, averaging 3.23 goals per game and Markstrom and their defense are allowing the fewest goals in hockey, an average of only 1.96 goals per game. LA’s been terrible lately, dropping six of their last seven games and they’ve dropped to 9-8-4 on the season. They’ve been good on the back end, allowing only 2.62 goals per game (sixth fewest in the NHL) but their offense has been struggling, scoring only the ninth fewest in the league, an average of 2.57 per game. Calgary should win this game but for some reason I don’t think there’s enough of an edge to bet it here with them on the road. I’d lean the under too but not enough to bet on…plus I have enough action tonight anyway so I’ll skip this game.
.5u Avs in regulation (-113)
1u Florida in regulation (-190)
1u Florida TT over 3.5 (-148)
1u Tampa ML (-165)
1u Capitals ML (-190)
1u Carolina in regulation (-210)
.5u Carolina TT over 3.5 (-155)
.5u Wild ML (-190)
1u Stars in regulation (-129)
1u Stars TT over 3 (-175)
1u Stars/Blue Jackets over 5.5 (-120)
Record (Regular Season): 136-124-4 (-11.88 units)