Last night my picks were fine in NHL, I went 7-5-1 for -0.54 units. Six game Sunday night slate tonight!
Flyers vs. Lightning (6:00)
Last night the Bolts blew a 2-0 lead to the Bruins in Boston but ultimately won 3-2 in overtime for their fourth win in their last six games (double winner on that game for me last night). Tampa’s 14-5-4 on the season, averaging an eleventh most 3.13 goals per game and allowing an eleventh fewest 2.7 goals per game. With the Bolts on the second half of a road back to back, they’re likely starting former Flyer Brian Elliott in goals tonight instead of Vasilevskiy. Philly has been playing terrible hockey, looking like the team they were last year rather than the team that started off the season hot. They’re now 8-9-4 and have lost their last seven straight games, five of them by three goals. They’re scoring the sixth fewest goals in the NHL, an average of only 2.38 per game and allowing 3 goals per game. Tampa has two wins on the season (4-3 in a shootout and 4-0) already over Philly and even with the Elliott revenge game I like them to sweep them on the season. I’ll take Tampa ML for a half unit. I’d lean the under as well, but with Elliott starting and likely to give up a couple against his former team, I’ll skip that one today.
Blue Jackets vs. Sharks (6:00)
I’d expect both of these teams to end their seasons are .500. San Jose is 13-1-1 and have won three of their last five. They’re winning on their defense, allowing a sixth fewest 2.54 goals per game but they’re only scoring an eighth fewest 2.58 goals per game. Columbus at 12-10 coming into this game on a four game losing streak does the opposite. They’re winning on offense, scoring a twelfth most 3.09 goals per game but they’re allowing an eighth most 3.23 goals per game. Elvis Merzlikins is healthy again and confirmed in goal tonight after the two games that the Jacket’s had to start their third string AHL goalie. Even though Elvis isn’t the best, he’s a lot better than their prospect they trot out there the last two games. With Adin Hill starting for the Sharks in goal combined with the goals the Blue Jackets are bleeding, I’ll take the over here for half a unit.
Islanders vs. Blackhawks (7:30)
This is a bad game between two bad teams that I expect to be ridiculously boring to watch. The Islanders after last night’s 4-3 overtime loss to the Detroit Red Wings are now 5-10-4 and on a ten straight game losing streak. They’re allowing an average of 3 goals per game but they’re not scoring a second fewest 1.89 goals per game. The Blackhawks offense isn’t much better, scoring just a third fewest in the NHL 2.13 goals per game while they allow a ninth most 3.17 goals per game. After last night’s 3-2 loss to the Rangers (winner for me), Chicago’s now 8-13-2, with seven of those wins coming in their last eleven games. When these teams played earlier this season, the Isles won 4-1 on October 19th. The Isles losing streak has to end eventually but Chicago, although not playing good hockey, have played a whole let better than them recently. I’d lean the Blackhawks and the under in this game but I don’t think either are worth betting so I’ll skip this game.
Jets vs. Maple Leafs (8:00)
Last night in a phenomenal game in Minnesota, the Leafs scored three straight unanswered to force overtime before taking their first loss in five games in a shootout, only the third loss in their last eighteen games. They’re 17-6-2, averaging 3.08 goals per game, while allowing only 2.2 goals per game, the second fewest in the NHL. Winnipeg comes into this game off a huge 8-4 win over NJ on Friday night but they’re 11-8-4 with only two wins in their last eight games (both in their last three). They’re good defensively as well, allowing only 2.65 goals per game (ninth fewest in the NHL) but they haven’t been scoring much, averaging just 2.78 per game. I just can’t see the Leafs losing here, even on the second half of back to back games and even without Mitch Marner and Morgan Rielly. The price of Winnipeg as a favorite makes no sense to me and I might be falling into the trap here but I think it’s worth the gambling without question. I’ll take the Leafs as an underdog at +105 for a unit.
Oilers vs. Kings (8:00)
The 16-6 Oilers continue to have one of the scariest offenses in hockey to face off against. This third best scoring offense, averaging 3.77 goals per game on the backs of league leaders Leon Draisaitl (43 points, 21 goals) and Connor McDavid (42 points, 26 assists). They haven’t been all that great defensively, allowing 2.96 goals per game but they’ve outscored their back end problems in five of their last seven games. LA comes into this game at 9-9-4 with just one win in their last eight games and that one came against one of the worst teams in hockey, Ottawa. They’ve been decent defensively on the season, allowing an eighth fewest 2.64 goals per game but they haven’t been able to score, averaging a seventh fewest 2.55 goals per game. I like the Oilers to win here probably pretty easy and will take them for a unit in regulation since the moneyline is too expensive at -220 for me to lay. I’d lean the over as well but not enough to bet on it.
Golden Knights vs. Flames (10:00)
Vegas going into the season was one of my top picks to win the Stanley Cup but they’ve had a ton of bad luck with injuries this season and haven’t been fantastic at 13-10, coming into this game with just two wins in their last five (but seven in their last eleven). Even with all the injuries, they’re averaging 3.35 goals per game but they’re allowing 3.09 goals per game. Calgary’s been one of the top teams in hockey, a huge surprise to me from my preseason thoughts on them. They’re 15-4-5 and come into this game on a three game win streak with only one loss in their last eight games. They’re averaging a tenth most 3.21 goals per game and allowing the fewest goals in hockey, an impressive average of only 2 goals per game. Calgary looks better lately than the Golden Knights do but with them on their third game on the road in the last four days, I’d slightly lean Vegas here but not enough to bet it. I’d also slightly lean the over but the best bet on this game is no bet at all.
.5u Lightning ML (-110)
.5u Columbus/SJ over 5.5 (-110)
1u Leafs ML (+105)
1u Oilers in regulation (-136)
Record (Regular Season): 154-134-7 (-11.3 units)
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