Sentry Tournament of Champions – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

Kapalua Resort Plantation Course – Hawaii

The PGA Tour is back in action this week to start off 2022 at the Kapalua Resort Plantation Course in Hawaii for the Sentry Tournament of Champions!

Course Breakdown

Par 73, 7596 yds but at a high elevation so it plays shorter (around 7100 yds), resort course, lot of elevation changes and uneven lies as the course was built on the side of a mountain, most of the Par 5s are reachable in 2, huge very wide fairways with very little rough (over 74% of Fairways Hit, which is significantly higher than tour average ~62%), if tee shots are ridiculously wild players will have to deal with very tall grass, huge and slow Bermuda greens with a lot of undulation (but they were a little quicker the last two years and had more bounce due to resodding), some greens have been flattened last year to make the course a little more difficult, much higher GIR % here (~79% vs. tour average ~65%), 90+ bunkers on the course, right on the Pacific Ocean and wind will be a factor here

Tournament Notes

  • No cut event
  • Back to normal entry rules of only players that won last season after last year’s special entry rules because of the COVID shortened season
  • The last eleven winners have all been from the USA
  • Before last year, only 5 non-US golfers have finished T3 since 2011: Day, Rahm, Hideki (x2), Laird, GMac, Joaquín Niemann
  • 11 of the last 13 winners here played a tournament in the month of December across various tours
  • 5 of the last 6 winners had either won a FedEx Cup event or a fall swing season PGA event
  • Winners the previous year here have done very well the following year
  • No first time player has won since 2008 (Daniel Chopra)
  • Since 2014, before last year only seven golfers have finished T5 in their first appearance here, including Spieth, Hideki, Rahm, Rory and Brooks (so the elite). Last year Niemann (2) and Sungjai Im (T5) did as well
  • In the last 8 years, 23 of the 30 T3 finishers have been T25 in the World Golf Rankings and 25 of those 30 were American

Key Stats

SG: Approach, Ballstriking

Main proximity distance range on approach: Less than 150 yds. (~40% of approach shots), over 200 yds. (~40% of approach shots)

Corollary Courses

  • TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic) – 4 of the last 12 winners also won the John Deere Classic (Spieth, ZJ, Stricker and Jonathan Byrd)
  • Augusta National (The Masters)

Field

39 golfers of the winners from last season

Defending Champion: Harris English (-25 in a playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Joaquín Niemann (-25)

Players

Collin Morikawa: 10800: +1000 – back to back T7s here the last two years, 1st in approach, 1st in SG: T2G, 1st in ballstriking, 10th in SG: OTT, 8th in Par 4 scoring, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, 11th in proximity: 100-125 yds, 1st in proximity: 125-150 yds, 15th in proximity: 200+ yds, 1st in opportunities gained, 10th in birdie+ gained, 37th in short game

Justin Thomas: 10600: +750 – Finished 3,1,3,T22,1 here the last five years, most birdies here in the last 5 years, 3rd in approach, 2nd in SG: T2G, 6th in ballstriking, 14th in SG: OTT, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 16th in Par 5 scoring, 7th in proximity: 100-125 yds, 2nd in proximity: 125-150 yds, 3rd in proximity: 200+ yds, 1st in opportunities gained, 13th in birdie+ gained, 22nd in short game

Sam Burns: 9100: +1600 – 8th in approach, 6th in SG: T2G, 9th in ballstriking, 8th in SG: OTT, 14th in Par 4 scoring, 13th in Par 5 scoring, 3rd in proximity: 100-125 yds, 9th in proximity: 125-150 yds, 18th in proximity: 200+ yds, 21st in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdie+ gained, 3rd in short game

Daniel Berger: 8400: +1800 – 10,T11,T14 his three times here, 2nd in approach, 5th in SG: T2G, 4th in ballstriking, 16th in SG: OTT, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 17th in Par 5 scoring, 17th in proximity: 100-125 yds, 16th in proximity: 125-150 yds, 11th in proximity: 200+ yds, 9th in opportunities gained, 24th in birdie+ gained, 29th in short game

Cam Smith: 8300: +1800 – T24,T17 his first two times here, 12th in approach, 19th in SG: T2G, 21st in ballstriking, 34th in SG: OTT, 13th in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in proximity: 100-125 yds, 5th in proximity: 125-150 yds, 23rd in proximity: 200+ yds, 8th in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdie+ gained, 2nd in short game

Taylor Gooch: 7600: +3300 – 4th in approach, 11th in SG: T2G, 19th in ballstriking, 37th in SG: OTT, 18th in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 1st in proximity: 100-125 yds, 24th in proximity: 125-150 yds, 12th in proximity: 200+ yds, 13th in opportunities gained, 16th in birdie+ gained, 12th in short game

Seamus Power: 6600: +6600 – 14th in approach, 13th in SG: T2G, 18th in ballstriking, 28th in SG: OTT, 4th in Par 4 scoring, 12th in Par 5 scoring, 22nd in proximity: 100-125 yds, 8th in proximity: 125-150 yds, 25th in proximity: 200+ yds, 26th in opportunities gained, 8th in birdie+ gained, 9th in short game

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: T2G (5%)

Ballstriking (10%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Par 4 scoring (10%)

Par 5 scoring (5%)

Proximity: 100-125 yds (5%)

Proximity: 125-150 yds (5%)

Proximity: 200+ yds (10%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Short Game (5%)

Stats based on past 50 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Because of the small fields, there will be a lot of duplicate lineups, so leaving more money than usual on the table could be a good move
  • Not betting anything or doing any lineups this week. Going to just watch how guys open the season, evaluate my model and then jump in next week, which is also the start of One and Done

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