Sony Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

Wai’alae Country Club – Honolulu, Hawaii

Course Breakdown

7044 yd. Par 70, resort course, winning score should be around -20, lowest driving accuracy course on tour (~53% vs. tour average ~625) but isn’t really a huge factor here at all, guys could still go real low with crappy driving accuracy, slightly higher than average driving distance here (~286 yds vs. tour average ~283) with a lot of rollout, both Par 5s can easily be eagle’d by all which are the 2 easiest Par 5s on tour, 4th most eagles here of every course on tour despite only having 2 Par 5s, all Par 3s under 200 yds, off the tee golfers will see tree lined fairways that are firm, flat and fast, rough isn’t very high but could get thick and gnarly to hit out of with bad lies, bunkers on a few fairways and water is in play on 2 holes, average sized, firm and flat Bermuda greens that are well protected by deep bunkers and the rough around the greens is a lot tougher than off the fairways, wind could play a big factor but as long as the wind is down its a birdiefest

Tournament Notes

  • First event of the 2022 One and Done season!
  • First full field event of the year with a cut (Top 65 and ties)
  • 7 of the past 9 winners (16 of last 22) played at the Tournament of Champions the year before (Cam Smith and Russell Henley were the only ones, Henley was also the 1st player since the 1970 to win their first time there), but their results at the TOC seem to not matter at all (Na and Kuchar sucked at TOC the year’s they won here)
  • Prior to Cam Smith two years ago and Kevin Na last year, the last 9 winners prior to that had a T6 in one of their last 3 starts before this tourney
  • The last eleven winners here had a T15 in one of their last 3 starts before this tourney

Key Stats

Approach, Par 4 scoring, Birdie+ Gained, Good Drives Gained

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds (25.5%), 175-200 yds (23.4%)

Corollary Courses

  • El Camaleon Golf Club (Mayakoba Golf Classic) – two of the last four winners, Matt Kuchar and Patton Kizzire won these two tournaments back to back, Mayakoba in the fall and then Sony the same season
  • Kapalua Resort Plantation Course (Sentry Tournament of Champions)

Field

132 golfers

Defending Champion: Kevin Na (-21)

Runner Up Last Year: Joaquín Niemann, Chris Kirk (-20)

One and Done: Cam Smith

One and Done Considerations: Cam Smith, Abraham Ancer

Players

Cam Smith: 11200: +800 – won here two years ago and made cut here the last four years, won last week at TOC, T4,T15 his last two events before that, 10th in approach, 19th in ballstriking, 12th in SG: T2G, 76th in SG: OTT, 84th in good drives, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 25th in proximity 150-175 yds, 51st in proximity 175-200 yds, 1st in birdie+ gained, 7th in opportunities gained, 3rd in short game, 2nd in putting, 1st in DK pts

Abraham Ancer: 9700: +2200 – MC,T38,T29,MC the last 4 years here, T35 last week at TOC, T7 at Mayakoba, 23rd in approach, 9th in ballstriking, 18th in SG: T2G, 11th in SG: OTT, 6th in good drives, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 17th in proximity 150-175 yds, 40th in proximity 175-200 yds, 12th in birdie+ gained, 22nd in opportunities gained, 29th in short game, 6th in putting, 11th in DK pts

Talor Gooch: 9100: +2500 – T15 (TOC),1 (RSM),60 (Houston),T11 (Mayakoba) his last 4 events, MC,T63,MC,T18 his last 4 years here, 3rd in approach, 17th in ballstriking, 4th in SG: T2G, 101st in SG: OTT, 40th in good drives, 22nd in Par 4 scoring, 49th in proximity 150-175 yds, 36th in proximity 175-200 yds, 25th in birdie+ gained, 13th in opportunities gained, 28th in short game, 81st in putting, 8th in DK pts

Russell Henley: 8500: +2200 – T22,T7,T56 his last 3 events, T11,MC,66,MC,T13 here the last 5 years, 1st in approach, 8th in ballstriking, 8th in SG: T2G, 55th in SG: OTT, 13th in good drives, 12th in Par 4 scoring, 1st in proximity 150-175 yds, 27th in proximity 175-200 yds, 31st in birdie+ gained, 4th in opportunities gained, 95th in short game, 102nd in putting, 35th in DK pts

Seamus Power: 8100: +4000 – MC,MC,T54,T49 his last 4 times here, T15 (TOC),T4 (RSM),MC (Houston),T11 (Mayakoba),T12 (Bermuda) his last 5 events, 9th in approach, 15th in ballstriking, 6th in SG: T2G, 57th in SG: OTT, 33rd in good drives, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 37th in proximity 150-175 yds, 50th in proximity 175-200 yds, 5th in birdie+ gained, 53rd in opportunities gained, 10th in short game, 36th in putting, 5th in DK pts

Joel Dahmen: 7600: +5000 – T12,T22,T73 his last 3 times here, T28,T29,T5,T45 his last 4 events, 17th in approach, 11th in ballstriking, 17th in SG: T2G, 36th in SG: OTT, 20th in good drives, 18th in Par 4 scoring, 10th in proximity 150-175 yds, 21st in proximity 175-200 yds, 7th in birdie+ gained, 8th in opportunities gained, 89th in short game, 86th in putting, 27th in DK pts

Model

Approach (22%)

Ballstriking (5%)

SG: T2G (5%)

SG: OTT (4%)

Good Drives (4%)

Par 4 scoring (14%)

Proximity 150-175 yds (8%)

Proximity 175-200 yds (8%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Short Game (5%)

Putting (5%)

DK pts (0%)

Stats based on past 50 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • On DraftKings showdown slates, guys that start on the front 9 have an easier chance at getting 3+ birdie streaks, giving a slight edge
  • Not betting or doing any lineups this week on golf. This is the first real week of the season with a weak field and more variability. I’ll evaluate my model and may add some in tournament bets through the week or jump in fully next week

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