Had my first back to back losing days, going 1-4, losing 6.35 units on yesterday’s lousy three game slate. Let’s get a huge bounce back winning day to make up for it on tonight’s nine game slate!
Sabres vs. Stars (7:00)
In their last games both of these teams surprised me quite a bit and I lost money on both of those matchups. On Tuesday, the Dallas Stars just took their third straight loss, their fourth in their last five games. Not that a loss by the Stars really surprises me, but a 5-3 loss to Montreal at home was pretty shocking. I don’t think Dallas is all that great of a team at 18-16-2, but they’ve been very good at home. They’re averaging 2.78 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL while allowing an average of 3.06 per game. The Sabres come into this game off a 3-1 win at home in Ottawa on Tuesday, just their second win in their last ten games. They’re still an atrocious team though at 12-20-7, averaging a seventh fewest 2.54 goals per game while allowing a sixth most 3.41 goals per game. Aaron Dell will be in goal for the Sabres tonight, who has a 1-6-1 record on the season, a terrible 3.75 GAA and 892 save percentage. I don’t love the idea of laying the -235 on the Stars ML but I will take them to win in regulation for a unit to bounce back to that Tuesday loss against the Habs. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it.
Bruins vs. Capitals (7:00)
On Tuesday, the Capitals beat Winnipeg 4-3 in overtime for just the Caps second win in their last seven games. The Caps are still a respectable 22-9-9 and they’ve been good statistically all season, even with injuries. They’re averaging 3.28 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL and allowing a tenth fewest 2.73 goals per game. The 22-12-2 Boston Bruins come off a 7-1 blowout loss at home to Carolina on Tuesday night, their only loss in their last six games and just their second in their last ten. The B’s have been very good, allowing an eighth fewest 2.67 goals per game and scoring an average of 3.08 goals per game, much improved from earlier this season. In the first matchup between these teams on January 10th, the Bruins blew out the Caps 7-3 in Washington on a four goal second period for the B’s. I’d lean the Bruins win this game, but its not worth laying the -200 and I actually see value in the Caps at +165. I’ll stay off a side on this game and go with the alternate over 5.5 thats only -127 for a unit.
Flyers vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
Both of these teams suck. The Flyers come into this game on a nine game losing streak, most recently a 4-3 shootout loss at home to the Islanders. They’re 13-18-8, averaging 2.51 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL while allowing a ninth most 3.31 goals per game. Columbus has been slightly better. The Jackets are 17-18-1 with just two wins in their last seven games, coming off a 9-2 blowout loss in Florida on Saturday. They’ve been decent offensively, averaging 3.14 goals per game but they’ve been terrible on the back end, allowing the second most goals in the NHL, 3.61 per game. I feel like this might be the game that the Flyers get off their losing streak with a win, but no chance I’m betting this game. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it since I don’t really trust the Flyers to score. I’ll just skip this game.
Penguins vs. Senators (7:00)
The shitty Ottawa Senators who are 11-19-2 this season come into this game off 3-1 loss on Tuesday night to the Sabres at home, but prior to that they won their last two Edmonton and Calgary. They’re allowing the fifth most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.59 goals per game and averaging 2.78 goals per game. The Penguins have three wins in their last four games and just have two losses in their last 15 games. They’re averaging 3.26 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL and allowing a fourth fewest 2.53 goals per game. The Sens surprisingly had a nice 6-3 win against the Penguins on November 13th. I think the Penguins easily get their revenge here with a win, especially with Jarry starting in goal. I’ll take the Pens in regulation for a unit along with a unit on the Pens TT over 3.5.
Predators vs. Jets (8:00)
Nashville’s slumping, coming into this game on a four game losing streak. The Preds are 24-14-3 on the season, averaging 3.02 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.78 per game, eleventh fewest in the NHL. The Winnipeg Jets come off a 4-3 loss in overtime to the Capitals and have a 4-1-1 record in their last six games. They’re averaging 2.89 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.8 per game. I think the Predators are the better team here and should get a win here at home to end their losing streak, especially if Juuse Saros starts (currently projected). The Jets have been playing decent hockey lately though, so I’d rather just lay off this game.
Oilers vs. Panthers (9:00)
The Edmonton Oilers are a broken, shitty team, coming into this game on a six game losing streak with only two wins in their last 14 games. Can’t expect to win games when all of your offensive production is only coming from two players, no matter how talented McDavid and Draisaitl are. The Oilers are averaging 3.29 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL (with McDavid and Draisaitl each involved in about half of those) but they’ve been terrible defensively and their goaltending sucks, allowing an eighth most 3.34 goals per game. Florida’s one of the best teams in the NHL at 26-8-5, coming into this game off a 5-1 loss in Calgary that ended their four game win streak. They have an 8-1-1 record in their last ten games with the second highest scoring offensive in the NHL, averaging 4.05 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.9 per game. I think Florida’s offense should stomp on the Oilers tonight. I’ll take the Panthers for a unit and the Panthers TT over 3.5 for 1.5 units. I really lean the over but its so high at 7 and buying it down to even 6.5 is way too expensive for me to do here that I’ll just stay off that.
Kings vs. Avalanche (9:30)
Last night the Avs got their fourth straight win, this time a bit unconventionally with a 2-0 shutout win in Anaheim (I split that game, winning on the Avs in regulation and losing the TT). Colorado’s 26-8-3, with only one loss (which came in overtime) in their last ten games. They have the highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 4.19 goals per game. They’re not great defensively, allowing 3.11 goals per game, twelfth most in the league. The Kings come into this game off back to back losses to Tampa and SJ and they’re 20-15-5 on the season. LA’s winning in the opposite way of the Avs, they’re very good defensively, allowing 2.63 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL but they haven’t been scoring, averaging just 2.78 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL. I think the offense lights up tonight for Colorado and I’ll take them for half a unit. If they weren’t on a road back to back I’d probably be on this heavier, but I think its worth the half unit play here.
Golden Knights vs. Canadiens (10:00)
On Tuesday night the Habs got a shocking 5-3 win in Dallas to get their first win after a six game losing streak and just their second win in their last 15 games. Montreal’s the worst team in the NHL at 8-25-5, averaging a fewest in the NHL 2.16 goals per game and allowing the most goals in hockey, an average of 3.66 goals per game. Vegas comes into this game on a three game losing streak with just one win in their last six games. The Knights are 23-15-2, averaging a sixth most 3.45 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.03 per game. These teams met the first time this season on November 6th and Vegas got their revenge in Montreal for losing in the Cup Semi-Finals last year with a 5-2 win. They should beat them pretty easily again tonight. The problem is the -335 price on the Golden Knights and even the regulation line and puck lines I think aren’t worth betting. I’ll go with the Knights TT over 3.5 for 2 units.
Kraken vs. Sharks (10:00)
I think both of these teams kind of suck, but the Sharks are significantly better than the Kraken. SJ is 21-17-2 on the season with four wins in their last six games. They’re averaging just 2.78 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3 goals per game. Seattle’s fucking terrible at 11-23-4 and ended their nine game losing streak with a 3-2 shootout win against Chicago on Monday. They’re averaging only 2.66 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL but they bleed goals, giving up an average of 3.61 per game, second most in the NHL. The first meeting ever between these teams on December 14th was a 3-1 Kraken win on the road in SJ. I’d lean the Sharks win this one since they’re playing better hockey but I don’t really see any edge in betting this one.
1u Dallas in regulation (-129)
1u Bruins/Capitals over 5.5 (-127)
1u Penguins in regulation (-195)
1u Penguins TT over 3.5 (-165)
1u Florida ML (-165)
1.5u Florida TT over 3.5 (-143)
.5u Avalanche ML (-185)
2u Vegas TT over 3.5 (-157)
Record (Regular Season Total): 315-227-12 (+13.14 units)
Regular Season Pregame: 315-226-12 (+13.71 units)
Regular Season Live: 0-1 (-0.57 units)
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