Turned a profit again yesterday on the NHL, going 9-3 and winning 4.26 units. Today we have a smaller, five game Sunday slate. Let’s crush it.
Penguins vs. Jets (1:00)
The Penguins are riding hot with a 25-10-5 record and coming into this game on four game win streak and only two losses in their last 17 games. They’re scoring an eighth most in the NHL average of 3.38 goals per game and they’re even better defensively, allowing only 2.55 goals per game, second fewest in the NHL. Tristan Jarry’s been great in goal with a 2.10 GAA and .928 save percentage. The Jets come off a 3-2 loss in Boston yesterday afternoon, their third straight loss. Winnipeg’s 17-14-6 on the season, scoring an average of 2.84 goals per game and allowing 2.87 goals per game on average. When these teams played the first time this year on November 22nd, the Penguins got a 3-1 win on the road in Winnipeg. On the second half of a back to back here and going into Pittsburgh to play a well rested, very good Pens team, I don’t expect a whole lot out of the Jets today. I’ll go with 3.5 units here on the Penguins in regulation. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it.
Blue Jackets vs. Senators (6:00)
Both of these teams are pretty bad this season. The Sens are 11-20-3, coming into this game on a three game losing streak after blowing a 2-0 lead to Ovechkin in the third period last night before losing 3-2 in overtime to the Caps. Ottawa’s allowing the second most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.65 per game and they’re scoring just 2.79 per game. Columbus isn’t much better and they’re 18-19-1. The Jackets are decent offensively, averaging 3.08 goals per game but they’ve been atrocious defensively as well, allowing a fifth most in the NHL average of 3.58 goals per game. I’d lean the over here, expecting both teams to be able to score on two defenses that can’t slow down a game and two goalies that aren’t great. I’d also lean Columbus at home here with Ottawa coming into town on the second half of a back to back. Not betting this shitty game. I feel like if I did, I’d probably end up splitting those two bets. Best play on this game is none at all.
Devils vs. Kings (7:00)
Last night the Devils got a huge 7-4 win at home against Carolina, but to put that into context, the Canes roster was severely depleted and they started a rookie goaltender for the first time in his career. Not putting a whole ton of stock into that game (double winner though, over and Canes TT over). NJ is a shitty team this year. They’re 15-19-5 and they only have two wins in their last six games. The Devils are averaging 2.92 goals per game and struggling to keep the puck out of their net, allowing a seventh most 3.41 goals per game. LA comes into this game on the road on a three game losing streak. They’re pretty decent though on the season at 20-16-5. The Kings defense and goaltending has been solid, allowing an eighth fewest in the NHL, 2.66 goals per game but they’ve struggled to score, averaging an eleventh fewest 2.73 goals per game themselves. When these teams played in LA on November 5th, it took till overtime for the Kings to win 3-2. I think it comes a bit easier on the road today with the Devils on the second half of a back to back and LA on a few day’s rest. I’ll go with the Kings for a unit here.
Kraken vs. Panthers (9:00)
This is a pretty lopsided game. Florida’s one of the best teams in hockey, coming off a 2-1 shootout win on Friday night in Vancouver. They’re 28-8-5 and have only two losses in their last twelve games. They’ve second in the NHL in scoring with their 4.02 goals per game average, only trailing the Avalanche and they’ve been decent defensively, allowing an average of 2.78 per game. Seattle’s been pretty awful though in their inaugural season with a 12-24-4 record and coming off a 5-0 trouncing at home by the Blues on Friday night. They have two wins in their last three games but only three wins in their last 16. Not only are they bad on the back end, allowing a fourth most 3.6 goals per game, but they’ve been struggling to score, averaging a seventh fewest in the league, 2.6 goals per game. The first time these teams met on November 27th was a shocking 4-1 loss by Florida at home. I can’t see that happening again tonight on the road. Going hard on the Panthers in this game with 2 units on the regulation line, 4 units on the Panthers TT over 3.5 and 1.5 units on the Florida third period TT over 1. Let’s go Florida!! I’d lean the over as well, but like those other plays better to not have to rely on the Kraken to put it past Bobrovsky.
Canucks vs. Blues (10:00)
The Blues are having a great season. They’re 24-11-5, coming off a huge 5-0 win on the road in Seattle on Friday night for their seventh win in their last nine games coming out of the Christmas break. St. Louis has a great offense, scoring the fifth most goals in the NHL this season, an average of 3.53 goals per game with the second most efficient power play unit in the league scoring on 29.3% of their man up opportunities. They’ve been really solid defensively as well, allowing a seventh fewest average of 2.65 goals per game. The Canucks have really turned around their season since hiring Boudreau, but they’re still 18-18-4. On Friday night, they lost 2-1 to Florida in a shootout at home. They’ve had several injuries and covid issues lately that have lead to them losing four of their last six games. Vancouver’s still averaging a fifth fewest in the NHL 2.48 goals per game this season but they’ve been solid on the back end, allowing a twelfth fewest 2.75 goals per game. Although I think the Canucks are a completely different team since hiring Bruce Boudreau and that they should be respected, I think the Blues have a clear edge in this game and will take them for a unit. I’d lean the under as well but not enough to bet on it.
HUGE UPDATE: When I wrote this, third string goalie Spencer Martin was projected to start, which already made me like the Blues. Since then, it looks like he may be out as well, awaiting additional covid tests. Assuming he’s out, that makes an even bigger impact. With starter Thatcher Demko out on covid protocol, backup Jaro Halak out with a issue crossing the border, Martin likely out now and AHL goalie Arturs Silovs on the covid list as well, the Canucks are probably going to have to start their first choice in net, Michael DiPietro. I can’t see this going well by any means for the Canucks against the Blues and will add on another 3 units on the Blues ML and 4 units on the Blues TT over 3. I already liked these bets expecting Martin to start and love them even more with DiPietro in goal…who I expect to be nothing like Rick used to be.
3.5u Penguins in regulation (-139)
1u Kings ML (-139)
2u Florida in regulation (-148)
4u Florida TT over 3.5 (-148)
1.5u Florida 3P TT over 1 (-182)
4u Blues ML (-167)
4u Blues TT over 3 (-148)
Record: 340-232-13 (+30.71 units)
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