AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

I had a fantastic week on betting the PGA Tour last week at the Farmers Insurance Open, with pre-tournament outright bets and T5s on the both Luke List winning at 80:1 and Zalatoris who lost in the playoff, along with Rahm finishing 3rd and Sungjae Im finishing T6. GREAT week. This week the PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach for one of the worst tournaments to watch on TV every year, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Pebble Beach Golf Links – Monterey Peninsula, CA
Spyglass Hill Golf Course – Monterey Peninsula, CA
Monterey Peninsula Country Club – Monterey Peninsula, CA

Course Breakdown

Pebble Beach Golf Links (All Rounds): 6972 yd. Par 72,  fairways aren’t as wide and rough is a little thicker than usual already because the USGA is already starting to get it ready for the US Open, smallest greens on the PGA Tour, 2 Par 5s are reachable by all golfers, 1 will barely be reachable by any golfer, 1 reachable for long hitters, Par 4s here are a lot shorter than average with six Par 4s under 400 yds, course hugs the cost line which makes it very hard if wind picks up, above average size fairways with bunkers guarding the landing zones, rough isn’t very penal since it is playable to the shitty amateurs in the Pro Am, OB comes into play on almost half the holes, very small POA greens (half size of tour average and smallest greens on the PGA Tour), lots of bunkers and false fronts around the greens, guys club down here and use less than driver on a lot of holes, annually the course with short average drive on Tour (264 yds vs. 283 yds average) and fewest amount of drives over 300 yds (8.96%)

Spyglass Hill Golf Course (Rounds 1-2): 7050 yd. Par 72, has played more difficult than Pebble 9 of the last 12 years, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers and 17 is a reachable Par 4, lot of trees on this course so wind could be less of a factor but it’s a harder course, average sized fairways with just a few bunkers, lot of trees and some water if golfers miss the fairway, slightly larger greens than Pebble but with a lot more slope and undulation

Monterey Peninsula Country Club (Rounds 1-3): 6958 yd. Par 71, 5 Par 3s, 4 Par 5s (used to be a Par 72), easiest course of the 3 with above average sized fairways and the largest greens, highest hit fairways of any course on PGA Tour (~75%), bunkers and sand dunes in play

Tournament Notes

  • Cut is Top 60 and ties (not the usual 65) after 54 holes (not the usual 36)
  • After last year where COVID prevented this thing from being a stupid celebrity Pro-Am tournament, it’s back to normal again today and Monterey Peninsula is back in the course rotation again today
  • This tournament is the worst to watch on TV all season because of the stupid Pro-Am
  • Weather is a big factor here, in good weather these are all easy courses but in bad weather they get very difficult so lot of variability in this tournament
  • A lot of variety in winners here with a lot of winners outside the Top 100 and not many in the Top 20, but Americans win here (not Euros, only 3 non-Americans in the last like 50 years)
  • No one has won here for the first time here since the 1950s
  • Last year besides Paul Casey, the other six players that finished T5 were all American and only 3 of the 11 that finished T10 here were not American (and only 6 of the T25)
  • The leader or co-leader after 54 holes, has gone on to win 12 times since 2000 including 7 of the past 9 years (Phil was 3 back from Casey two years ago)
  • 11 of the last 13 winners here played at least 3 events in January and February prior to playing here (Vaughn Taylor and Phil are the only ones not to)
  • Ted Potter, Phil (in 2012), Vaughn Taylor and Nick Taylor are the only 4 winners the last 12 years that didn’t have a T15 in one of their 3 prior events that calendar year
  • Including US Opens, every winner at Pebble Beach since 2000 has a T16 or better in one or more of their previous three starts here

Key Stats

Approach (4x more impactful here than SG: OTT), SG: ARG, Ballstriking

Main proximity distance range on approach (Pebble Beach): 100-125 yds (22.2%), 200+ yds (21.2%)

Field

153 golfers – terrible field strength 

Defending Champion: Daniel Berger (-18)

Runner Up Last Year: Mav McNealy (-16)

One and Done: Mav McNealy

One and Done Considerations: Cantlay, McNealy

Players

Patrick Cantlay: 11200: +700 – T3,T11,T35,T48 his last 4 times here, T21 at the 2019 US Open at Pebble, 9,4 his last two events, 13th in approach, 2nd ballstriking, 1st in SG: T2G, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 5th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 36th in Par 3 scoring, 1st in Par 5 scoring, 107th in proximity 100-125 yds, 65th in proximity 125-150 yds, 68th in proximity 200+ yds, 4th in putting, 13th in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 1st in DK pts, can’t bet on him at this price

Maverick McNealy: 9800: +2100 – 2,T5,MC his last 3 times here, T30,T27,T19 his last three events, 32nd in approach, 12th in ballstriking, 6th in SG: T2G, 21st in Par 4 scoring, 6th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 63rd in Par 3 scoring, 3rd in Par 5 scoring, 42nd in proximity 100-125 yds, 82nd in proximity 125-150 yds, 8th in proximity 200+ yds, 41st in putting, 15th in opportunities gained, 5th in birdie+ gained, 2nd in DK pts

Justin Rose: 9600: +2500 – T39 his last time here in 2017, 5th at Torrey with his irons last week, T6,T33,T12 his last 3 events, T3 at the 2019 US Open at Pebble, 47th in approach, 49th in ballstriking, 69th in SG: T2G, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 23rd in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 45th in Par 3 scoring, 33rd in Par 5 scoring, 39th in proximity 100-125 yds, 25th in proximity 125-150 yds, 39th in proximity 200+ yds, 11th in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 20th in birdie+ gained, 10th in DK pts

Mito Pereira: 8300: +5000- T25,T29,T29 his last 3 events, 3rd in approach, 1st in ballstriking, 4th in SG: T2G, 8th in Par 4 scoring, 22nd in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 19th in Par 3 scoring, 47th in Par 5 scoring, 31st in proximity 100-125 yds, 51st in proximity 125-150 yds, 52nd in proximity 200+ yds, 42nd in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 41st in birdie+ gained, 26th in DK pts

Joel Dahmen: 7500: +9000 – T60,T14,T55,T48 his last 4 times here, MC,MC,T28,T29,T5 his last 5 events, 18th in approach, 10th in ballstriking, 21st in SG: T2G, 23rd in Par 4 scoring, 6th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 46th in Par 3 scoring, 131st in Par 5 scoring, 13th in proximity 100-125 yds, 31st in proximity 125-150 yds, 31st in proximity 200+ yds, 81st in putting, 12th in opportunities gained, 6th in birdie+ gained, 23rd in DK pts

Ryan Armour: 6900: +20000 – T47,MC,MC,T20,MC his last 5 years here, T20 at Sony, 24th in approach, 8th in ballstriking, 12th in SG: T2G, 27th in Par 4 scoring, 47th in Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds, 24th in Par 3 scoring, 116th in Par 5 scoring, 22nd in proximity 100-125 yds, 11th in proximity 125-150 yds, 2nd in proximity 200+ yds, 31st in putting, 14th in opportunities gained, 46th in birdie+ gained, 52nd in DK pts

Model

Approach (20%)

Ballstriking (10%)

SG: T2G (5%)

Par 4 scoring (10%)

Par 4 scoring 350-400 yds (5%)

Par 3 scoring (5%)

Par 5 scoring (5%)

Proximity 100-125 yds (10%)

Proximity 125-150 yds (5%)

Proximity 200+ yds (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities gained (5%)

Birdie+ gained (5%)

DK pts (0%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • No TV cameras or ShotLink data on Spyglass and Monterey, which could lead to nice live betting opportunities
  • Dial back exposure on this tournament cause its a fucking joke because of the Pro-Am format
  • Stack Monterey for Showdown slates on DraftKings
  • Because of the Pro-Am format of this tournament, I’m not touching any full tournament or Round 1 matchup bets this week. I might jump in during Round 2 if I like anything, which I’ll tweet out

Bets

Outright Winners

0.3u Mav McNealy (+2100)

0.24 Justin Rose (+2500)

0.1u Mito Pereira (+6000)

0.08u Joel Dahmen (+9000)

0.04u Ryan Armour (+20000)

T5s

0.3u Mav McNealy (+500)

0.24u Justin Rose (+550)

0.08u Joel Dahmen (+1600)

0.04u Ryan Armour (+3500)

T6s

0.1u Mito Pereira (+1300)

T10s

0.08u Ryan Armour (+1500)


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