It was good to be back to the NHL yesterday after the All Star break, winning 1.8 units on the small two game slate. Tonight we have a pretty good seven game slate to keep rolling!
Senators vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
Both of these teams were in action last night returning from the All Star break and I’d expect the opposite results for both teams today of what happened last night. Last night, the Hurricanes were in Toronto to take on the Leafs. After getting out to a 3-2 lead in a close game, the Canes gave up the tying goal and then the winning goal to Mitch Marner to lose 4-3 in overtime (I still won on that game, cashing the Canes TT over 2.5 pretty easily). That was Carolina’s first loss in five games and only their second loss in their last nine. They’re a very good team at 31-9-3, scoring a fifth most average of 3.47 goals per game while allowing just 2.37 goals per game, fewest in the NHL. Ottawa on the opposite end of the standings, isn’t have a good season. They’re 15-22-4, coming off a 4-1 win at home against NJ last night. That was their second win in their last three games but they only have four wins in their last 10. The Sens are scoring just 2.76 goals per game on average, twelfth fewest in the NHL while allowing a ninth most average of 3.32 goals per game. Both previous matchups between these teams this season have been surprisingly close, with the Senators winning 3-2 in Carolina on December 2nd and it taking until a shootout for Carolina to win 3-2 on January 27th. The Hurricanes are the way better team here, but the previously close matchups between these teams this year makes me stay off the -235 moneyline. I feel like its a bit riskier but I’ll take Carolina in regulation for a unit and the Senators TT under 2.5 in regulation for half a unit.
Bruins vs. Penguins (7:00)
This is probably the best game on the slate for tonight. The 27-11-8 Penguins were one of the hottest teams in hockey with a stretch of losing only twice in 19 games through most of December and January, but that hot streak seemed to lose all its gas as they went to the All Star break on a four game losing streak, losing all of those games by a goal, three of them needing more than regulation to decide. The Pens are tenth in the NHL in scoring, averaging 3.3 goals per game and with Tristan Jarry playing the best hockey of his career in goal (2.21 GAA, .923 save percentage), they’re allowing the fourth fewest goals in the NHL, an average of only 2.59 goals per game. The 26-14-3 Bruins have been also playing pretty good hockey since coming back from the Christmas break with a 12-4-1 record in that span. They did lose three of their last five though going into the All Star break. The B’s are averaging 3.02 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.77 per game. These team haven’t met yet this season but last year they played eight times in the re-aligned division format and the Bruins won five of those eight games. I think the Penguins are the better team in this game but are on a cold streak and the Bruins are at home and playing great hockey as well, so I’ll stay off either side of this one. I do like the under in this game though. Both teams tend to trend under this year and last year only one of their eight games went over. I’ll take the alternate under 6 for a unit here.
Canadiens vs. Devils (7:00)
These are two of the worst teams in the NHL and they’re both playing horrible hockey lately. The Habs are the worst team in hockey with an 8-29-7 record, coming into tonight on a six game losing streak with only two wins in their last 21 games. They’re scoring the second fewest goals in the NHL (only better than Arizona), an average of only 2.23 goals per game and allowing the most in the NHL, an average of 3.91 per game. Horrible hockey on both ends of the ice. The Devils have a bit better of a record at 15-26-5, but are also playing horrendous hockey. They come into tonight’s game on a seven game losing streak with only one win in their last 11 games. They’re scoring only an average of 2.74 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the NHL and allowing a fourth most average of 2.54 goals per game. These teams are both atrocious. I’d slightly lean the Devils but not enough to bet them on the road. And with shitty goaltending and shitty defenses, I’d lean the over but also not enough to bet it and have to rely on two shitty offenses to score. I’ll completely skip this game.
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
This should be a fun game to watch where I expect a lot of goals to get scored. The Caps have been playing pretty shitty hockey lately, while still being a good team. They’re 25-13-9 on the season but just have two wins in their last five games and just five wins in their last 14 games. They’re solid statistically on both ends of the ice, averaging 3.19 goals per game, averaging 3.19 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL and allowing an eleventh fewest average of 2.72 per game. They’re starting third string goalie Pheonix Copley in goal tonight. This is only his first start of the season after he came in on relief on February 2nd after Samsonov gave up three goals on four shots in the first five minutes of the game. Copley played decent in that appearance, giving up one goals on 22 shots (.955 save percentage). Columbus has been pretty bad coming into tonight with a 20-22-1 record and have just two wins in their last six games. They’re decent offensively, averaging 3.09 goals per game but have been allowing an average of 3.67 goals per game, second most in the NHL. Washington won both previous matchups between these teams this season with a 4-3 win in Columbus on November 12th and a 3-1 win on December 4th at home. I’d slightly lean the Caps here but since they’ve played pretty shitty lately and with the question mark of Copley starting, I’ll lay off it. I do really like the over here though and I’ll take the alternate over 6 for 1.5 units.
Jets vs. Wild (8:00)
In the last game that I bet on Wednesday night before the All Star Break, I CRUSHED the Wild beating the Blackhawks 5-0, winning the 6.8 units cashing the ML, -1.5 and -2.5 puck lines. Huge win. The Wild are one of the best teams in the NHL this season coming into tonight with a 28-10-3 record on a six game win streak and a 9-0-1 record in their last ten games. They’re third in the NHL in scoring, averaging 3.83 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.85 goals per game. The Jets on the other hand are 18-17-7 and only have one win in their last eight games. They’re scoring an average of 2.76 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 2.91 goals per game. To make matters worse for Winnipeg, Neal Pionk and Pierre-Luc Dubois went on COVID protocol today. The Wild won both of the first two matchups these teams played this season at home, winning 6-5 in OT on October 19th and then in a 7-1 blowout on November 26th. I’m going right back to betting the Wild heavily here with 3 units on the ML (make sure you shop this line, cause all five of my books had different prices on this game), a unit on the puck line with solid value at +160, a unit on the Wild TT over 3 and half a unit on the alternate over 6.
Oilers vs. Golden Knights (9:00)
This is an interesting game to me. After quite a lousy streak of hockey, the Oilers rallied going into the All Star break with a 5-0-1 record in their last six games to improve to 23-16-3 on the season. They’re averaging 3.31 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL, with McDavid and/or Draisaitl involved in most of those and they have the third most efficient power play in the NHL, scoring on 28.4% of those chances. Edmonton’s sucked defensively and have had quite shitty goaltending though, allowing a tenth most average of 3.29 goals per game. Vegas is 27-16-3, not bad considering all their injuries they’ve faced this season. They’re pretty much all completely healthy though and Jack Eichel was cleared for full contact practice but still isn’t ready to be in the lineup, so his Golden Knights debut is likely coming soon. The Knights are averaging 3.35 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and allowing an average of 2.96 per game. I would slightly lean Vegas in this game but the first two times these teams played this season in Vegas, the Oilers won both matchups (5-3 on October 22nd and 3-2 on November 27th), so I’ll just skip it. I do expect both teams to score though and I’ll take the alternate over 6 here for a unit.
Canucks vs. Coyotes (10:00)
The Canucks have had a ton of injuries lately to only get two wins in their last seven games, but they did turn their season around big time when they hired Bruce Boudreau. They’re still struggling to score, averaging a fifth fewest in the NHL 2.43 goals per game but they’ve been very good defensively and Thatcher Demko’s been great in goal, as they’re allowing an eighth fewest 2.67 goals per game. Arizona’s just been bad all season and they’re one of the worst teams in the NHL. They’re scoring the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of only 2.18 goals per game but allowing the second most goals in the league, an average of 2.67 goals per game. I don’t expect much scoring on either side of this game but the Canucks should win it. I’ll take the under and the Canucks in regulation for a unit each and parlay the Canucks ML and the under for half a unit.
1u Carolina in regulation (-143)
.5u Ottawa TT under 2.5 in regulation (-141)
1u Bruins/Penguins under 6 (-134)
1.5u Capitals/Blue Jackets over 6 (-141)
3u Wild ML (-144)
1u Wild -1.5 (+160)
1u Wild TT over 3 (-177)
.5u Wild/Jets over 6 (-127)
1u Vegas/Oilers over 6 (-137)
1u Canucks in regulation (-141)
1u Canucks/Coyotes under 5.5 (-127)
.5u parlay: Canucks ML & Canucks/Coyotes under 5.5 (+160)
Record: 398-274-15 (+24.6 units)
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