Genesis Invitational – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

Riviera Country Club – Los Angeles, CA

Course Breakdown

7322 yd. Par 71, plays long since the Par 5s are short and the Par 4s are all very long, 3 Par 5s are the easiest holes on the course which give up around 45% of all birdies on this course (#1 is the easiest hole on the PGA and there is the most eagles here) also a drivable Par 4 (#10), besides the short #10 every Par 4 plays above Par, one of lowest driving accuracy courses (~53% vs. 61% Tour average) but that doesn’t effect things nearly as much as distance or long iron play do, tight fairways, lots of fairway bunkers with huge lips, challenging doglegs especially to the right side (which favors righty’s that hit a fade or most lefty’s who play a draw), tree lined but that shouldn’t effect much if you don’t wildly miss the fairway, spongy kikuya fairways and somewhat thick rough (popular grass in South Africa) with inconsistent lies depending on where they land in the rough, small and fast POA greens with multi tiered with lots of undulation and slope, guarded by a lot of bunkers and false fronts, one of lowest GIR courses on tour (~58% vs. 66% Tour average), behind Pebble Beach here has hardest greens to hit on tour from within 125 yds. (76%), toughest putting course between 3-5 feet in 5 of the last 9 seasons, in top 3 courses on tour of missed putts within 3 feet, most missed putts on tour within 5 feet, bombers and lefty’s have an advantage (Phil, Bubba)

Tournament Notes

  • In 2020, this tournament became a reduced field invitational and Tiger became the host
  • 70% of the golfers that have finished T3 here in the last seven years have been inside T56 in approach in the year they finished T3
  • 80% of the golfers that finished T3 here in the last 15 years have been inside the T55 in SG: T2G in the year they finished T3

Key Stats

Approach, SG: T2G, SG: ARG

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds (26.9%), 175-200 yds (22.9%), 200+ yds (23%)

Corollary Courses

  • Augusta National (The Masters)
    • Other than James Hahn in 2015 and Max Homa last year, every other golfer that has won here in the last 29 years has finished T22 or better at some point in their career
    • 19 of the last 32 winners here have won or come in 2nd at The Masters at some point in their career
    • 25 of the last 32 winners here have finished inside the T10 at Augusta all time
    • 29 of the last 32 winners here have finished inside the T20 at Augusta all time
    • Every lefty thats won the Masters (Bubba, Phil, Mike Weir) has won here multiple times
  • Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship) – lot of crossover leaders (including James Hahn, JB Holmes and Max Homa that won both events)

Field

118 golfers – incredible field strength with all of the Top 10 players in the world

Defending Champion: Max Homa (-12 in playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Tony Finau (-12)

One and Done: Rory McIlroy

One and Done Considerations: Rahm, JT, Cantlay, Rory

Players

Jon Rahm: 11300: +950 – T10,T3,T14,2 his last 4 events, T5,T17,T9 his last 3 years here, 4,MC his two times at Quail Hallow, 5,7,9,4,27 his 5 times at The Masters, 13th in approach, 2nd in ballstriking, 1st in SG: T2G, 1st in SG: OTT, 8th in driving distance, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 11th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 67th in proximity 150-175 yds, 13th in proximity 175-200 yds, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 25th in short game, 56th in SG: ARG, 18th in putting, 8th in opportunities gained, 1st in DK pts

Collin Morikawa: 10400: +2200 – T18,T62,T5 his last three events, T43,T26 his two times here and gained an average of 6.9 SG on approach in those two times and his putting just really sucked, 18,44 his two times at The Masters, 1st in approach, 1st in ballstriking, 2nd in SG: T2G, 18th in SG: OTT, 87th in driving distance, 6th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 3rd in proximity 150-175 yds, 3rd in proximity 175-200 yds, 57th in proximity 200+ yds, 96th in short game, 85th in SG: ARG, 92nd in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 10th in DK pts, any time he’s over +2000 it should be an auto bet since he wins more than once every 20 events

Rory McIlroy: 9700: +2200 – 3,T12 in his last two events (both on Euro tour), MC,T5,T4,T20 here the last 4 years, 6 T10s at the Masters, 2 wins and 7 T10s in his 8 times at Quail Hallow, 27th in approach, 14th in ballstriking, 12th in SG: T2G, 13th in SG: OTT, 4th in driving distance, 5th in Par 4 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 40th in proximity 150-175 yds, 32nd in proximity 175-200 yds, 43rd in proximity 200+ yds, 30th in short game, 38th in SG: ARG, 36th in putting, 9th in opportunities gained, 4th in DK pts

Russell Henley: 7900: +5000 – T33,T14,2 his last 3 events, T38,T17,T44 here the last 3 years, 15,11,21,31 the last four years at the Masters, 3rd in approach, 12th in ballstriking, 8th in SG: T2G, 57th in SG: OTT, 100th in driving distance, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 68th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 1st in proximity 150-175 yds, 44th in proximity 175-200 yds, 86th in proximity 200+ yds, 42nd in short game, 26th in SG: ARG, 65th in putting, 5th in opportunities gained, 22nd in DK pts

Paul Casey: 7600: +6600 – Good history here with T37,T25,T49,T39 finishes his last 4 times here, solid history at the Masters and Quail Hallow, 2nd in approach, 3rd in ballstriking, 4th in SG: T2G, 40th in SG: OTT, 30th in driving distance, 26th in Par 4 scoring, 72nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 5th in proximity 150-175 yds, 22nd in proximity 175-200 yds, 4th in proximity 200+ yds, 43rd in short game, 34th in SG: ARG, 58th in putting, 14th in opportunities gained, 16th in DK pts

Luke List: 7400: +8000 – Playing the best golf of his career, T53,1,T22 his last 3 events, MC,T30,T15,T26,MC here the last five years, two T10s at Quail Hallow the last 3 years, 14th in approach, 6th in ballstriking, 3rd in SG: T2G, 10th in SG: OTT, 6th in driving distance, 20th in Par 4 scoring, 28th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 32nd in proximity 150-175 yds, 1st in proximity 175-200 yds, 11th in proximity 200+ yds, 97th in short game, 7th in SG: ARG, 117th in putting, 4th in opportunities gained, 30th in DK pts

Model

Approach (15%)

Ballstriking (5%)

SG: T2G (10%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Driving Distance (5%)

Par 4 scoring (10%)

Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (5%)

Proximity 150-175 yds (10%)

Proximity 175-200 yds (5%)

Proximity 200+ yds (5%)

Short game (5%)

SG: ARG (10%

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

DK pts (0%)

Stats based on past 50 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • With a smaller invitational field, a higher percentage of players will make the cut so being more aggressive in DK lineups is fine

Bets

Outrights

0.64u Jon Rahm (+950)

0.28u Collin Morikawa (+2200)

0.28u Rory McIlroy (+2200)

0.12u Russell Henley (+5000)

0.1u Paul Casey (+6600)

0.08u Luke List (+8000)

T5s

0.28u Collin Morikawa (+450)

0.28u Rory McIlroy (+470)

0.12u Russell Henley (+1400)

T6s

0.1u Paul Casey (+1320)

0.08u Luke List (+1600)


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