My six day win streak came to an end last night as I went 3-6, losing 3.25 units. We have a pretty big ten game NHL slate tonight to get some bounce back winners!
Sabres vs. Senators (7:00)
This is a shitty game between two lousy teams. My Sabres come into tonight’s game on a two game win streak off a 6-3 win against the Islanders on Tuesday and a 5-3 win in Montreal on Sunday. They’re a pretty bad this season at 16-24-8, pretty much right on par with my expectations for them. Buffalo’s scoring an average of just 2.69 goals per game, tenth fewest in the NHL while allowing an average of 3.46 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL. The Senators aren’t any better. They’re 17-25-4 with just one win in their last four games. They’re slightly worse offensively than Buffalo, averaging only 2.67 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL but are slightly better defensively, allowing a tenth most average of 3.24 goals per game. These teams split their first two games this year in Ottawa with a 3-1 Sabres win on January 18th and a 5-0 shutout win for the Sens on January 25th. I’d slightly lean my Sabres at home here and the over, but have zero faith in betting either of those, so I’ll just skip this game completely. Go Sabres.
Rangers vs. Red Wings (7:00)
The Rangers are having a great year at 31-13-4 and on Tuesday night, after a very entertaining game and nine rounds of a shootout, the Rags beat the Bruins 2-1 on K’Andre Miller’s winning goal for their third straight win. Igor Shesterkin was incredible in that game in goal, just as the likely Vezina winner has been all season. With his play in goal, the Rangers are allowing the third fewest goals in the NHL, an average of only 2.54 goals per game and they’re scoring an average of 2.98 goals per game. The Red Wings haven’t been great this season at 22-22-6, and have been significantly worse on the road where they’re 7-13-3. They are averaging just 2.84 goals per game but have allowed the sixth most goals in hockey, an average of 3.46 goals per game. As long as Shesterkin starts in goal (currently projected and don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t tonight), I’ll take the Rangers for 1.5 units and lay the -200 on the ML along with half a unit on the Red Wings TT under 2.5 in regulation. If for some reason Georgiev is starting, who’s a significant downgrade from Igor, I’ll just lay off this game.
Flyers vs. Capitals (7:00)
The Flyers have been an atrocious team this season at 14-24-9, coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak with just two wins in their last 18 games. Philly’s struggled on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of only 2.54 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL along with allowing an eighth most in the league average of 3.4 goals per game, which is even worse when Martin Jones starts, who has a pretty bad 3.56 GAA. The Capitals haven’t played very good hockey lately with just seven wins in their last 18 games, but on the season they’re 27-15-9 and they’re coming off a solid 4-1 win in Nashville on Tuesday. On the season, they’ve been playing pretty good as far as the stats show and just not winning games recently, as they’re averaging a tenth most in the NHL 3.22 goals per game and allowing an eight fewest average of 2.75 goals per game. In the first time these teams played this season, the Flyers actually won 2-1 in DC on November 6th, which I don’t see happening again tonight. I keep getting screwed betting on the Caps lately, but I’m going back on them again tonight with a unit on the ML, which I’m sort of shocked is less than -200. Along with that I’ll take the Caps TT over 3 for half a unit.
Maple Leafs vs. Penguins (7:00)
This is by far the best game on the slate tonight between two powerhouse teams this season that have been great on both ends of the ice. The Leafs are having a great season at 31-12-3 and with their 6-2 blowout win in Seattle on Monday, they have seven wins in their last nine games. They’ve scored an average of 3.59 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL and have allowed an average of 2.7 goals per game, sixth fewest in the league. The Penguins are just as great this season, coming into tonight with a 31-11-8 record and on a four game win streak after their 5-4 comeback overtime win against their cross state rival Flyers on Tuesday night. The Pens won both previous matchups between these top teams this season, with a 7-1 blowout win on October 23rd in Pittsburgh and a 2-0 shutout win in Toronto on November 20th. With two All Star goalies in Tristan Jarry (2.2 GAA, .925 save percentage) and Jack Campbell (2.38 GAA, .921 save percentage) going up against each other and two of the top nine offenses in the NHL this should be an incredible game that’s pretty tough to even predict the flow of let alone bet a side or a total on it. I’d slightly lean the Penguins and the under, but not enough to think about betting it so I’ll just skip this game but look forward to watching it.
Canadiens vs. Blues (7:00)
The Habs are by far the worst team in the NHL this season with an 8-33-7 record and with their 5-3 loss to the Sabres on they’re on a ten game losing streak for first time for that franchise since 1926. In the stats, they’re the worst team in the NHL on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of only 2.19 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.98 goals per game. No matter how you look at it, they’re the worst team in the league. The Blues are having a solid season and come into tonight with a 28-14-5 record with only five losses in their last 16 games. They’re averaging 3.51 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL and allowing an average of 2.75 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season in St. Louis, the Blues cruised to a 4-1 win on December 11th. I’d assume that happens again tonight. I’m not laying the -275 here, but I’ll go with 2 units on the Blues in regulation and a unit each on the Habs TT under 2.5 in regulation and the Blues TT over 3.5.
Islanders vs. Bruins (7:30)
Interesting game here. On Tuesday, the Bruins ultimately came up short in an emotional 2-1 loss to the Rangers in MSG that took nine rounds for them to lose in. They’re 27-16-4 and have struggled a bit lately without 2/3s of the Perfection Line with Bergeron injured and Marchand suspended as they just have three wins in their last nine games. Bergeron returns to the lineup tonight which should give them a spark. The B’s offense is averaging 2.87 goals and they’re allowing an eleventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.77 goals per game. The Islanders have had quite a bad season and they’re 17-20-6 with just three wins in their last ten games, coming off a 6-3 loss in Buffalo on Tuesday night. They’re also allowing an eleventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.77 goals per game but they’ve been terrible offensively, scoring the fourth fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.42 goals per game. The first game between these teams this season, the Isles won 3-1 at home on Long Island on December 16th. I really like the under here, not really expecting much scoring by either team, but at 5, that’s tough to bet so I’ll take the alternate under 5.5 here for a unit. I’d lean the Bruins but not enough to bet on them.
Jets vs. Kraken (8:00)
I have almost zero interest in this game. The Jets are pretty much just an average team with a 21-18-8 record this season and coming off their surprising 6-3 win against the Wild last night, they have three wins in their last five games (but only four in their last 13). They’ve averaged 2.83 goals per game and allowed an average of 2.85 goals per game. The Kraken haven’t had the inaugural season they hoped too and have sucked with a 16-29-4 record and just two wins in their last six games. They’ve scored an average of just 2.61 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and have been even worse on the back end, allowing an average of 3.51 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL. In their first game, the Jets got a 3-0 shut out win in Seattle on December 9th. I’d lean the Jets again tonight but with them on the second half of a back to back, I’ll just stay off betting this game.
Blackhawks vs. Blue Jackets (8:30)
This is a terrible game that I love a bet on tonight. The Blue Jackets are 23-23-1, coming off a 6-2 loss in Calgary on Tuesday, but they have been playing better as of late with five wins in their last seven games. They’re alright offensively, average 3.11 goals per game but they’ve been awful on the back end, allowing the third most goals in hockey, an average of 3.66 goals per game. Elvis Merzlikins, who’s confirmed in goal tonight hasn’t been good with a 3.4 GAA and a .904 save percentage. The Blackhawks have been pretty bad this season. They’re 18-24-7 and after their 3-1 win on Monday night in Winnipeg have just three wins in their last eleven games. They’ve struggled to put the puck in the back of the net, scoring a third fewest in the NHL average of 3.39 goals per game and they’ve been bad defensively too, allowing a ninth most average of 3.31 goals per game. To make that worse, they’re starting prospect Arvid Soderblom in goal tonight, who had a loss in his only start this year and a 4.23 GAA, .881 save percentage in his NHL appearances. When these teams played in Columbus earlier this season on January 11th, the Hawks won 4-2. In each of their last 10 games, the Blackhawks have allowed the most shot attempts and the Blue Jackets have allowed the third most shot attempts which has also lead to them giving up some of the most goals in the league in that span of time. I expect this to fly over tonight. I’ll take the alternate over 5.5 for a unit and then to save a bit of juice, I’ll take another 2 units on the over 6. I’d lean Columbus too but not enough to bet on them, as they’ve been way too inconsistent this season.
Oilers vs. Ducks (9:00)
I don’t like this game at all from a betting perspective. The Oilers are the toughest team to analyze in the NHL as it all depends on if McDavid and Draisaitl get shut down or not. The Oilers are 26-18-3, coming into this game with three straight wins and as shitty as I feel like they’ve been, they have an 8-2-1 record in their last eleven games. They have the twelfth highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.21 goals per game (mostly from Draisaitl and McDavid) but they’ve been terrible defensively, allowing an eleventh most in the NHL average of 3.17 goals per game. The Ducks are over exceeding expectations this season at 23-18-9 but they’re on a three game losing streak with only six wins in their last 24 games. Not great. They’re averaging 2.86 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.86 goals per game. The first time these teams played was a tight, high scoring game with the Oilers winning 6-5 on October 19th. I’d lean the Oilers and the over in this game, especially with the Ducks on the second half of a back to back after last night’s 6-2 loss to Calgary, but not enough for me to lay the -220 price on Edmonton that’s almost impossible to predict. So I’ll just skip this game.
Sharks vs. Canucks (10:30)
The Sharks have been pretty bad lately, coming into tonight’s game on a four game losing streak and with only two wins in their last ten games and they’re 22-21-4 on the season. SJ isn’t scoring goals, as they’re averaging only 2.66 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL and allowing an average of 3.06 goals per game. The Canucks are coming off a huge 3-2 win against the Leafs on Saturday, their fourth win in their last eight games and they’re now 22-21-6 on the season. They’ve struggled to score all season, averaging only 2.51 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL but they’ve been great on the other end of the ice, allowing only 2.69 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL. I’d lean the under on this game but the bet I like better is the Canucks ML which I’ll take for a unit.
1.5u Rangers ML (-200)
.5u Red Wings TT under 2.5 in regulation (-152)
1u Capitals ML (-175)
.5u Capitals TT over 3 (-167)
2u Blues in regulation (-175)
1u Blues TT over 3.5 (-150)
1u Montreal TT under 2.5 in regulation (-159)
1u Bruins/Islanders under 5.5 (-150)
1u Blue Jackets/Blackhawks over 5.5 (-152)
2u Blue Jackets/Blackhawks over 6 (-122)
1u Canucks ML (-115)
Record: 440-304-16 (+32.76 units)
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