Crushed last night’s four game NHL slate, going 5-1 and winning 4.89 units! Today we have a decent seven game slate. Let’s keep winning!
Sabres vs. Avalanche (1:00)
By far the most lopsided matchup on the slate. The Sabres blow, we’re a joke of a franchise with a 16-25-8, coming off a 3-1 loss at home to Ottawa on Thursday night and they have just two wins in their last six games. They’re scoring an average of just 2.65 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL and allowing a sixth most in the NHL average of 3.45 goals per game. The Avs on the other hand are one of the best teams in the show this season. They’re 35-9-4 on the season and after losing 4-1 at home to Dallas on Tuesday, they bounced back with a 2-0 shutout win in Vegas the next night and they have an 18-1-2 record in their last 21 games. They have the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.96 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.79 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the league, much improved from earlier this season where they were just outscoring their problems. The Avs cruised through an easy 4-1 victory against the Sabres when these teams played in Colorado on January 30th and they should get another easy win here in Buffalo today. The ML is way too expensive on its own but I’ll parlay it with the Calgary ML to win 2 units, I’ll take the Avs TT over 3.5 for 1.5 units and the Avs in regulation for a unit.
Jets vs. Oilers (4:00)
The Oilers seem to be getting hot lately, coming into tonight on a four game win streak coming off of a 7-3 win against the Ducks on Thursday night. They’re now 27-18-3 and have a 9-2-1 record in their last twelve games. Not bad. McDavid, Draisaitl and the Edmonton offense (but mostly those two) are scoring an average of 3.29 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL and they’ve allowed the eleventh most goals in hockey, an average of 3.17 goals per game. The Jets have five wins in their last eight games, coming off a 5-3 win against Seattle on Thursday and a 6-3 win against Minnesota on Wednesday and they’re 22-18-8 on the season. They’ve averaged 2.88 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.85 goals per game. These teams played a home and home in November with the Jets winning 5-2 at home and then the Oilers getting their revenge with a 2-1 shootout win two nights later in Edmonton. I think the Oilers win here but I’m treading lightly and I’ll just go with them for half a unit.
Senators vs. Bruins (7:00)
I have almost no interest in this game between the two teams I hate the most in the NHL (Leafs are up there with them too). The Bruins are 27-17-4 this season and have been struggling quite a bit lately with only one win in their last five games. They’re still without Brad Marchand, who’s suspending and on the season they’re averaging 2.83 goals per game. They’ve been much better on the back end, allowing an average of 2.79 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. The Sens blow are coming off a 3-1 win in Buffalo on Thursday but haven’t been great this season with an 18-25-4 record and just two wins in their last five games. Ottawa’s scoring even less than the B’s are, averaging just 2.68 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL and they’ve been pretty terrible defensively, allowing a tenth most in the NHL average of 3.19 goals per game. The Bruins have won both previous matchups between these teams with a 3-2 win at home on November 9th and a 2-0 shutout win last week on the 12th. I think the Bruins get it done again in a low scoring game. I’ll take the B’s and the under for half a unit each.
Maple Leafs vs. Blues (7:00)
This should be an awesome game, probably the best on today’s slate. The Leafs are 32-12-3 this season with an 18-4-1 record at home, even without fans in the arena for a good part of the year since Canada’s rules are so ass backwards. Coming off a 4-1 win against Pittsburgh on Thursday night, they’re playing great hockey on both ends of the ice and have just two losses in their last ten games. They’re averaging 3.6 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL and allowing an average of only 2.66 goals per game, the fifth fewest in the league. Jack Campbell’s been great in net with a 2.33 GAA and .924 save percentage. The Blues completely fucked me on Thursday night with a 5.5 unit swing as they gave up the tying goal to the worst team in hockey in Montreal with less than ten seconds left before going on to lose 3-2 in overtime. St. Louis has had a solid season at 28-14-6 but they’ve been on the struggle bus as of late with just two wins (against Ottawa and Chicago) in their last five games. On the stats sheet they look good, scoring an average of 3.48 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL and allowing an average of only 2.75 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL. Ville Husso transformed himself from a pretty much auto loss last year to the league leading goalie with a 1.91 GAA and .936 save percentage. In a huge high scoring game on January 15th in their first matchup this season in St. Louis, the Leafs won 6-5. I think even though this should be a solid game, the Leafs have the edge on both ends of the ice. I’ll lay the juice and take the Leafs ML for half a unit. I thought hard about the over under here. Both offenses have the potential to score at will and make this thing fly over as it did in their first game BUT they also both have really solid defenses and I think this game likely ends up falling within a goal of the 6 in either direction, so I’ll just skip it.
Coyotes vs. Kings (9:00)
Last night LA played a solid game in Vegas, winning 4-3 in overtime, playing solid hockey lately with a 5-2-1 record in their last eight games. On the season they’re 25-17-7. They’ve struggled offensively, averaging only 2.82 goals per game but have been great on defense, allowing an average of only 2.71 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL. The Yotes are one of the worst teams in the NHL at 12-32-4 and they’ve got just two wins in their last ten games. On the stats sheets, they’re only better than Montreal on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of only 2.23 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.67 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season, the Coyotes got a win in LA, where they won 2-1 in overtime. Even on the second half of a back to back, I like the Kings to win this one. I’ll take LA for a unit along with a unit on the alternate under 6 and half a unit on Yotes TT under 2.5 in regulation.
Flames vs. Kraken (10:00)
The Calgary Flames are the hottest team in the NHL right now, on fucking fire and coming into this game on an eight game win streak, scoring at least five goals in each of their last five games and allowing two or less goals in seven of their last eight games. Pretty much playing perfect hockey on both ends of the ice. On the season, they’re 28-13-6 with a 12-4-4 record at home. They’re scoring a seventh most in the NHL average of 3.45 goals per game and they’re allowing the fewest goals in the league, an average of only 2.38 goals per game. Jacob Markstrom’s been one of the best goalies in the league this year with a 2.12 GAA and .927 save percentage. The Kraken have had quite a lousy inaugural season, coming into tonight with a 16-30-4 record and only two wins in their last seven games. They’re scoring an average of only 2.62 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and they’ve been even worse defensively, allowing a fifth most average of 3.54 goals per game. In the first ever matchup between these teams on December 30th, the Flames won 6-4 with Matthew Tkachuk scoring the game winner with less than three minutes left in the game. I’d expect the Flames to keep their incredible run going with another win tonight. They should be able to score at will and Markstrom should limited Seattle’s scoring. Already hit the first leg of my parlay earlier today as the Avs beat the Sabres 5-3, so now I have a pending 2 unit bet on the Flames ML at just -140 instead of the high -305 price here, so I’ll let that ride for a great price on this matchup. Along with that, I’ll take the Flames in regulation for a unit, the over for a unit and 2 units on the Flames TT over 3.5. Just for fun, I’ll add a 0.1 unit on the exact score of 6-2 Flames at +3300.
Canucks vs. Ducks (10:00)
This should be a fun game between two middle of the road teams. The Canucks have gotten healthy as of late and now have three wins in their last four games and are 23-21-6 on the season. They’re bad offensively, averaging on 2.56 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL but they’ve been very good defensively, allowing only 2.72 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL. The Ducks are 23-19-9 on the year but they’ve been struggling lately, coming into tonight on a four game losing streak. They’re averaging 2.86 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.94 goals per game. The Ducks are 2-1 on the season against Vancouver with a 3-2 overtime win on November 9th in Vancouver and a 5-1 blowout win at home on November 14th. The Canucks answered back with a 2-1 overtime win in Anaheim on December 29th. I think this is a pretty even matchup that I’d give the slight edge to the Canucks in, but not enough to bet on them. I could see this game staying close and I’ll take a fun little 0.2 unit flyer on this game to go to overtime. I’d lean the under and looked at the alternate under 6 here but at -148, I don’t think its worth it, so I’ll just skip that. For fun, I’ll also add a same game parlay for 0.2 units on Canucks ML/Ducks +2.5/over 4.5/under 6.5 at +575.
2.8u parlay: Avalanche ML/Calgary ML (-140)
1.5u Avalanche TT over 3.5 (-170)
1u Avalanche in regulation (-225)
.5u Oilers ML (-124)
.5u Bruins ML (-182)
.5u Bruins/Senators under 5.5 (-122)
.5u Leafs ML (-200)
1u Kings ML (-182)
1u Kings/Coyotes under 6 (-132)
.5u Coyotes TT under 2.5 in regulation (-136)
1u Calgary in regulation (-190)
1u Calgary/Seattle over 6 (-110)
2u Calgary TT over 3.5 (-140)
.1u Exact score: 6-2 Calgary (+3300)
.2u Canucks/Ducks to go to overtime (+335)
.2u SGP: Canucks ML/Ducks +2.5/over 4.5/under 6.5 (+575)
Record: 453-308-16 (+37.65 units)
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