The Honda Classic – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

PGA National Golf Club (Champion Course) – Palm Beach, FL

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7125 yd, one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour every year, coastal track so wind could be a big factor, 28 water hazards so water is a big factor and in play on 15 holes and over 6200 balls have hit water here since 2007, 67 bunkers, harder than average fairways to hit, thick rough, very difficult greens to hit (59.7% vs. tour average 65.9%), average size and speed Bermuda greens, greens are elevated and contoured and false fronts, a lot of golfers will go mostly less than driver off the tee (one of lowest driving distance averages on tour at 272.7 yds vs. tour average 282.9 yds average)

Tournament Notes

  • No player since Jack in 1978 has defended his title at the Honda Classic
  • The Bear Trap (holes 15-17), which will probably decide the winner on Sunday and since 2007 the Bear Trap and holes 5-7 are tied for the fourth most difficult three hole stretches on the PGA Tour
  • 3 of the last 6 winners have a T12 finish here in one of the 2 years before winning
  • 8 of the last 11 winners here have had a finish of T13 or better in the previous year here before the win
  • All of the last 10 winners here had made the cut here before the win (so course history matters a bit)
  • 4 of the last 5 winners here have had a T10 or better on the west coast swing that season
  • Matt Jones, who shot a -9 in the first round last year became the only first round leader to have ever won here 
  • 54 hole leader won here 9 of the last 15 years

Key Stats

Approach, Ballstriking, Bogey Avoidance

Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yds (25.6%)

Corollary Courses

  • Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) – Russell Henley, Mark Wilson, Ernie Els, Justin Thomas all won both events
  • Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) – lot of crossover success

Field

Not the best field strength, but seems a bit better than past years

Defending Champion: Matt Jones (-12)

Runner Up Last Year: Brandon Hagy (-7)

One and Done: Louis Oosthuizen

One and Done Considerations: Louis Oosthuizen, Daniel Berger

Players

Louis Oosthuizen: 10800: +2200 – MC,24,T14 here in his three appearances since 2017, T14 at Phoenix two weeks ago for his first event of the season, 2nd in approach, 3rd in SG: T2G, 7th in ballstriking, 53rd in SG: OTT, 82nd in driving distance, 13th in good drives gained, 38th in fairways gained, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 10th in Par 3 scoring, 8th in proximity 175-200 yds, 5th in SG: ARG, 18th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 2nd in bogey avoidance, 4th in sand saves 

Mito Pereira: 8900: +4500 – first time here, T15,MC,MC,T25 his last four events, 12th in approach, 9th in SG: T2G, 8th in ballstriking, 19th in SG: OTT, 31st in driving distance, 8th in good drives gained, 43rd in fairways gained, 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 39th in Par 3 scoring, 30th in proximity 175-200 yds, 87th in SG: ARG, 41st in putting, 12th in opportunities gained, 1st in bogey avoidance, 56th in sand saves

Jhonattan Vegas: 8500: +4000 – only one MC here in the 9 times he’s played here, 30,27,16,72,4 here the last 5 years, 55,T39,MC his last 3 events, 5th in approach, 4th in SG: T2G, 2nd in ballstriking, 2nd in SG: OTT, 2nd in driving distance, 2nd in good drives gained, 100th in fairways gained, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 46th in Par 3 scoring, 50th in proximity 175-200 yds, 99th in SG: ARG, 105th in putting, 15th in opportunities gained, 16th in bogey avoidance, 57th in sand saves

Russell Knox: 8100: +6500 – 2nd and 3rd place finishes here in 2014 and 2015 but has sucked here lately with 4 MCs in his last 5 times here, 33,33,33,MC,7 his last 5 events, best player on the Bear Trap ever (-6), 3rd in approach, 11th in SG: T2G, 5th in ballstriking, 32nd in SG: OTT, 98th in driving distance, 1st in good drives gained, 7th in fairways gained, 51st in Par 4 scoring, 7th in Par 3 scoring, 28th in proximity 175-200 yds, 116th in SG: ARG, 131st in putting, 16th in opportunities gained, 22nd in bogey avoidance, 138th in sand saves, playing decent golf lately

Hudson Swafford: 7100: +10000 – Hasn’t played great here with MC,21,73,64 his last 4 years here, 60,MC,1,48 his last four events, 11th in approach, 19th in SG: T2G, 6th in ballstriking, 11th in SG: OTT, 23rd in driving distance, 17th in good drives gained, 46th in fairways gained, 36th in Par 4 scoring, 55th in Par 3 scoring, 12th in proximity 175-200 yds, 134th in SG: ARG, 84th in putting, 2nd in opportunities gained, 82nd in bogey avoidance, 21st in sand saves

Jason Dufner: 6200: +32000 – Has never missed a cut here with 4 T20s here, MC,MC,T40, 13th in approach, 7th in SG: T2G, 11th in ballstriking, 23rd in SG: OTT, 89th in driving distance, 27th in good drives gained, 28th in fairways gained, 76th in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Par 3 scoring, 7th in proximity 175-200 yds, 58th in SG: ARG, 133rd in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 64th in bogey avoidance, 95th in sand saves, with his history of never missing a cut here and pretty much only needing 

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: T2G (5%)

Ballstriking (10%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Driving Distance (5%)

Good Drives Gained (5%)

Fairways Gained (0%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Proximity 175-200 yds (10%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Bogey Avoidance (10%)

Sand Saves (0%)

Stats based on past 50 rounds

Bets

Outrights

0.28u Louis Oosthuizen (+2200)

0.16u Jhonattan Vegas (+4000)

0.14u Mito Pereira (+4500)

0.1u Russell Knox (+6500)

0.06u Hudson Swafford (+10000)

0.02u Jason Dufner (+32000)

T5s

0.28u Louis Oosthuizen (+450)

0.1u Russell Knox (+1100)

0.02 Jason Dufner (+5000)

T6s

0.16u Jhonattan Vegas (+800)

0.14u Mito Pereira (+900)

0.06u Hudson Swafford (+2000)

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup: Louis Oosthuizen, Mito Pereira, Jhonattan Vegas, Russell Knox, Hudson Swafford, Jason Dufner

Contests:

  • $20 GPP ($250K to 1st) – 58,823 players
  • $5 GPP ($50K to 1st) – 71,343 players
  • $10 Single Entry Double Up – 804 players
  • $5 Single Entry Double Up – 2298 players
  • $5 Single Entry Double Up – 919 players
  • $5 Double Up – 919 players

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Please follow me:

Instagram: @atownszone

Twitter: @atownszone

TikTok: @atownszone

If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!

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