Great bounce back night as I swept the NHL slate going 6-0 to win 5 units. Tonight we have a big eight game slate. Let’s crush it again and get back over 40 units on the year!
Maple Leafs vs. Wild (7:00)
With their 4-3 overtime loss to Columbus on Tuesday night, which was their third straight loss (with at least 10 units of losses on those games, if not more than that), I’ve officially gone on retirement from betting on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Blow Leafs Blow. Toronto’s having a solid season at 32-14-4 on the season and they’re 18-5-1 at home. They’ve been great statistically, scoring an average of 3.54 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL and allowing a twelfth fewest in the NHL average of 2.8 goals per game. The Wild are very good as well, coming off a 4-3 loss to Ottawa on Tuesday night (loss) but are 31-14-3 on the season. They have three losses in their last four games but before those four games they had an 11-1-1 record in their prior 13 games. They have the third highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.79 goals per game but allowing an average of 3 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season in Minnesota, the Wild won 4-3 in a shootout on December 4th. I’d very slightly lean the Leafs here but even if I wasn’t already retired from betting them I wouldn’t touch a side on this game. I do like the over, expecting both teams to score which I will take for a unit.
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets (7:00)
Florida’s one of the best teams in the NHL at 35-11-5 with a fantastic 23-4 record at home this season, but are coming off a 6-4 loss at home to Nashville on Tuesday (loss). They have the highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 4.12 goals per game as they allow an average of 2.9 goals per game. The Blue Jackets are playing their best hockey of the year, coming off a 4-3 overtime win against the Leafs on Tuesday and they’re now 26-23-1 on the season with only two losses in their last ten games. They’ve been pretty good offensively, averaging 3.28 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL but they’ve been awful defensively, allowing a second most in the NHL average of 3.64 goals per game…which lines up fantastic for betting overs. The Panthers crushed Columbus both times they played this season with a 9-2 win on December 15th at home and an 8-4 win on December 31st. I think they pretty easily win again tonight…but the price on this game is way too expensive at -455 and even the -180 puck line and -250 regulation lines aren’t worth it either. I love the over though and even at 7, I’ll take it for a unit. I’ll go with a same game parlay here with the Florida ML/Florida TT over 4.5/over 6.5 which is right around even money for a unit. My favorite play on this game, even at 4.5 is the Florida TT which I’ll take for 2 units.
Rangers vs. Capitals (7:00)
This should be an interesting matchup to watch. The Rangers are having a great year at 32-13-5, coming into this game with four wins in their last five games (with the loss coming in a shootout, dumb luck). Most of their success can be attributed to the best goaltender in the NHL, Igor Shesterkin, who’s almost guaranteed to win the Vezina at this point with a 2.01 GAA and a .939 save percentage. With that, they’re allowing an average of only 2.5 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL. Offensively, they’re scoring an average of 2.94 goals per game. The Caps are having a decent season at 28-15-9 and have struggled to win games quite a bit lately, but come into tonight with three wins in their last four games. On the year, they’re pretty good statistically on both ends of the ice. They’re scoring a twelfth most in the NHL average of 3.25 goals per game and allowing a ninth fewest average of 2.75 goals per game. These teams opened their seasons against each other in Washington, where the Caps won 5-1. I like the Rangers to win here at home in MSG but I’m not going nuts with it, I’ll take the Rangers ML for half a unit. I’d lean the under but not enough to bet on it.
Penguins vs. Devils (7:00)
From an initial glance at this game, it looks to be a pretty lopsided matchup with the heavily favored Penguins, but I can see it being closer than expected. The Pens are great this year with a 31-13-8 record but come into tonight’s game on back to back losses to Carolina and Toronto. On the season, they’re averaging 3.29 goals per game, ninth most in the NHL and with Tristan Jarry’s great goaltending (2.29 GAA, .922 save percentage), they’re even better on the back end, allowing only 2.6 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL. The Devils have been pretty bad this year, coming into tonight’s game with a lousy 17-28-5 record. They have two wins in their last four games but just have three wins in their last 15. On the season they’re averaging 2.9 goals per game and really struggled defensively, allowing a fifth most average of 2.56 goals per game. Dougie Hamilton, Jesper Bratt and Andreas Johnsson all return tonight for the Devils, who should give a significant impact to their shitty lineup. The Pens are 2-1 this season against Jersey, with a 4-2 loss at home October 30th, a 3-2 road win on December 19th and most recently a 4-2 win in NJ on February 13th in a tight game capped off with a Jake Guentzel empty net goal with 1:07 left in the game. I think the Pens win at home but that the Devils keep it relatively close, so I’ll get a little bit riskier with this one with a half unit same game parlay on the Penguins ML with the Devils +2.5. I’ll also go with a unit on the Penguins TT over 3.5.
Predators vs. Stars (8:30)
I had to sweat out the Stars last night, who tied their game against the Jets in the third period before Tyler Seguin’s game winner in overtime that needed a review to determine if it went in (cash that bet, and I had leaned that game would go to OT which it did), a game that they outshot the Jets 39-22. Dallas is 28-20-2 on the season and have ten wins in their last 14 games. They’re scoring an average of just 2.86 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.92 goals per game. Nashville’s 29-18-4 and ended their four game win streak with a 6-4 win in Florida on Thursday…with David Rittich in goal, which kind of shocked me. The Preds are averaging 3.1 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.84 goals per game. Juuse Saros is a top goalie in the NHL with a 2.49 GAA and .923 save percentage and with Rittich starting on Tuesday, Saros is pretty much guaranteed to be back in goal tonight (currently projected). These teams split their first two games this season in Dallas with a 4-2 Predators win on November 10th and a 4-3 Stars win on February 9th. I’d slightly lean Smashville here at home with the Stars on the second half of a back to back. I’d also lean the over, but not enough to bet on either of those so I’ll just skip this game entirely.
Canucks vs. Flames (10:00)
Calgary still burning hot, the hottest team in hockey right now looking for their eleventh straight win tonight. They’re 30-13-6 on the season and they’re playing great on both ends of the ice. On the season they’re scoring an average of 3.41 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL while they’re allowing the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.33 per game. Vancouver’s 24-22-6 on the season, coming off an easy 5-2 win over Seattle on Monday night for their third win in their last four games. They’ve also been very good defensively, allowing an eleventh fewest 2.79 goals per game but they’ve sucked offensively, scoring only 2.63 goals per game on average, eighth fewest in the NHL. The first time these teams played this season was a double shutout with the Flames winning 1-0 in overtime on January 29th. I like the Flames to keep the win streak going here and will take them for 2 units along with a unit on the under
Kraken vs. Bruins (10:00)
The Kraken suck. They’re 16-33-4 coming into tonight’s game on a five game losing streak. Not the inaugural season they were looking for as they’re pretty lousy on both ends of the ice. Seattle’s scoring an average of 2.57 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL and they are allowing an average of 3.57 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL. The Bruins have been inconsistent, coming into this game with a 29-17-4 record. They’re coming off a huge 5-1 win against Colorado on Monday and have three wins in their last five games. They are averaging 2.88 goals per game but have been good defensively, allowing just 2.74 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL. Brad Marchand returns to the lineup from his suspension tonight, fresh off having a new kid during that suspension. In the first ever matchup between these teams on February 1st in Boston, the B’s won 3-2. With all of the Perfection line back, I think the Bruins get a win again tonight. I’ll take the Bruins in regulation for 1.5 units and the Kraken TT under 2.5 in regulation for half a unit.
Sharks vs. Islanders (10:30)
I have almost no interest in this game. The Sharks have unraveled big time, coming into tonight’s game on a seven game losing streak dropping to 22-22-6 on the season. They’re struggling to score, averaging only 2.66 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL and they’re not great defensively, allowing an average of 3.12 goals per game. The Islanders are coming off a 5-2 win in Seattle on Tuesday but they suck too. They’re 19-20-7 and only have two wins in their last six games. They’ve struggled even worse than SJ has to score, averaging only 2.5 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL. The Isles have been MUCH better defensively though with solid goaltending, allowing an average of only 2.7 goals per game, fifth fewest in the NHL. The first time this year that these teams played on December 2nd, the Sharks won 2-1 in overtime on Long Island. I’d guess the Islanders get their revenge here in another low scoring game and would lean the under but neither enough to bet on, so I’ll just skip this game.
1u Leafs/Wild over 6.5 (-115)
1u SGP: Florida ML & Florida TT over 4.5 & Florida/Columbus over 6.5 (+102)
2u Florida TT over 4.5 (-132)
1u Florida/Columbus over 7 (-129)
.5u Rangers ML (-115)
1u Penguins TT over 3.5 (-180)
.5u SGP: Penguins ML & Devils +2.5 (+188)
2u Calgary ML (-157)
1u Calgary/Vancouver under 6 (-132)
1.5u Bruins in regulation (-137)
.5u Kraken TT under 2.5 in regulation (-167)
Record: 488-332-16 (+35.29 units)