Arnold Palmer Invitational – Gambling/DFS 2022

Bay Hill Club and Lodge – Orlando, FL

Course Breakdown

7454 yds, Par 72, plays a bit longer than the yardage, good mix of holes where bombers will have an advantage and others where accuracy will be more of an advantage with a 3 wood or less than driver, all four of the Par 3s are between 200-225yds, Par 5s are reachable in 2 by a lot of golfers but bombers will obviously have an advantage, easy to hit wide tree lined fairways with strategically placed bunkers on almost every tee shot, 8 water traps that affect 10 of the holes, 84 bunkers, lot of doglegs, thick rough, trimmed rough around hazards which causes more trouble, lot of slopes and undulation on the fairways, guys will have to lay up so average drives are 6 yards shorter than tour average (277 vs. 283 yds) and driving accuracy is 66% vs. tour average of 61%, almost 30% of approach shots come from beyond 200 yds (most of any course on tour, a huge outlier), average GIR, a bit larger than average greens, very difficult course especially when wind picks up which plays a pretty big factor, firm Bermuda greens and fairways, greens are very FAST with slopes and runoff areas especially on the front of the greens, wind highly effects how this course plays and makes it much more difficult

Tournament Notes

  • SG Approach is way more influential than ATG and OTT this week (2.7x more than SG: OTT and 4.2x more than SG: ATG, 2x more than SG: OTT and 2.5x more than SG: ATG for T5)
  • Putting could be a little more influential here than usual but not enough for me to want to weigh as much as a key stat
  • Internationals have won this event the last 5 of the last 6 years (Bryson was the one that hadn’t) and 12/19 players who finished T5 or better in the last three years were internationals
  • Only three Americans have won this event since 2006: Tiger (who’s won here 8 times in his career), Matt Every (twice) and Bryson last year
  • In 5 of the last 7 years, the winner has shot better than -10 on the Par 5s for the week

Key Stats

Approach, Ballstriking, Par 5 scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (29.3%)

Corollary Courses

  • Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance Open) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day won both events in the last 6 years
  • Conway Farms Golf Club (BMW Championship) – Marc Leishman and Jason Day both won both events on years when the BMW was held at Conway Farms
  • Wentworth Club (BMW PGA Championship – European Tour) – Hatton, Molinari and Rory won there recently who all won here the last four years

Field

119 golfer – invitational field but not as strong as it’s been in year’s past

Defending Champion: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)

Runner Up Last Year: Lee Westwood (-10)

One and Done: Sungjae Im

One and Done Considerations: Rahm, Rory, Sungjae, Casey

Players

Rory McIlroy: 11100: +1300 – T10,3,T12 his last three events, has never finished worse than 27th here, 10,5,6,1,4 finishes here the last five years, 19th in approach, 6th in SG: T2G, 12th in SG: OTT, 10th in ballstriking, 27th in proximity 200+ yds, 19th in Par 5 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 77th in Par 3 scoring, 29th in SG: ARG, 14 in putting, 8th in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdies+ gained, 35th in bogey avoidance

Sungjae Im: 9900: +2900 – MC,33,6,11,MC,8 his last six events, 21,3,3 finishes here the last three years, 32nd in approach, 3rd in SG: T2G, 4th in SG: OTT, 8th in ballstriking, 6th in proximity 200+ yds, 11th in Par 5 scoring, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 4th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 37th in Par 3 scoring, 4th in SG: ARG, 47th in putting, 46th in opportunities gained, 25th in birdies+ gained, 2nd in bogey avoidance

Tyrrell Hatton: 9300: +3300 – T4,T6 his last two events (both on Euro Tour), 21,1,29,69,4 finishes here the last five years, 9th in approach, 12th in SG: T2G, 33rd in SG: OTT, 14th in ballstriking, 3rd in proximity 200+ yds, 40th in Par 5 scoring, 23rd in Par 4 scoring, 8th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 23rd in Par 3 scoring, 50th in SG: ARG, 38th in putting, 9th in opportunities gained, 40th in birdies+ gained, 6th in bogey avoidance

Adam Scott: 9000: +3500 – T4,38,T9,T10 his last four events, MC,41,12,35,3 here the last five years, 12th in approach, 29th in SG: T2G, 66th in SG: OTT, 21st in ballstriking, 10th in proximity 200+ yds, 15th in Par 5 scoring, 17th in Par 4 scoring, 9th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 22nd in Par 3 scoring, 85th in SG: ARG, 9th in putting, 13th in opportunities gained, 11th in birdies+ gained, 12th in bogey avoidance, putts best on Bermuda

Paul Casey: 8300: +3600 – T15,T12,T9 his last three events, 10,41,9 his last three times here, 1st in approach, 4th in SG: T2G, 37th in SG: OTT, 3rd in ballstriking, 4th in proximity 200+ yds, 5th in Par 5 scoring, 25th in Par 4 scoring, 45th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 18th in Par 3 scoring, 55th in SG: ARG, 75th in putting, 26th in opportunities gained, 17th in birdies+ gained, 55th in bogey avoidance

Luke List: 7500: +7500 – MC,53,1,22,10,11 in his last six events, 63,10,7,17 his last four times here, 15th in approach, 2nd in SG: T2G, 10th in SG: OTT, 6th in ballstriking, 12th in proximity 200+ yds, 13rd in Par 5 scoring, 26th in Par 4 scoring, 19th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 62nd in Par 3 scoring, 8th in SG: ARG, 117th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 14th in birdies+ gained, 25th in bogey avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: T2G (5%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Ballstriking (10%)

Proximity 200+ yds (10%)

Par 5 scoring (10%)

Par 4 scoring (5%)

Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (5%)

Par 3 scoring (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities gained (5%)

Birdies+ gained (5%)

Bogey avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 50 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • I’ve done pretty good on this event in the past, last year hitting 2 T10s with 4/5 making the cut and in 2020 hit the winner and 3 T5s in my 5 picks

Bets

Outrights

0.22u Sungjae Im (+2900)

0.2u Tyrrell Hatton (+3300)

0.18u Adam Scott (+3500)

0.18u Paul Casey (+3600)

0.08u Luke List (+7500)

T5s

0.22u Sungjae Im (+600)

0.18u Adam Scott (+850)

0.18u Paul Casey (+850)

0.08u Luke List (+1200)

T6s

0.2u Tyrrell Hatton (+660)


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