I’m back!!!! I crushed last night’s NHL slate going 8-1-1 to win 8.28 units for my second winning day in a row out of a slump. Tonight we have a giant eleven game slate. Let’s crush this one again too and get back on a winning roll!!
Devils vs. Avalanche (7:00)
Last night the Avs made me really sweat out their game in Long Island as they came out hot to start the third period making it a 5-1 game quickly before almost completely blowing that lead in the last nine minutes of the game to ultimately win 5-4 (double winner that almost made me go nuts). That win was huge for Colorado after back to back losses to Calgary (4-3 in overtime) on Saturday and Arizona (2-1) on Thursday. The Avalanche are one of the best teams in the NHL at 41-11-5. They have the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.93 goals per game and they’ve allowed a twelfth fewest average of 2.84 goals per game. The Devils haven’t been good this season with a 20-31-5 record, coming off a 3-2 win on Sunday afternoon against the Blues (double loser for me) and they’ve got just six wins in their last 21 games. They’ve been horrible defensively, allowing a seventh most in the NHL average of 3.54 goals per game. The Devils have averaged a pretty good 3.04 goals per game on the season and in their last ten games their offense has really picked up recently with them scoring an impressive average of 4.4 goals per game in their last ten games. Even on the second half of a road back to back, I like the Avs to win this game and I’ll take them in regulation for half a unit (don’t think its worth the -210 moneyline). I really like the over on this game. I’ll the the alternate over 6 in this game for a unit and to save some juice the 6.5 for half a unit.
Flyers vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
Jack Eichel got Vegas a huge win (and me a huge regulation winner) on Sunday with his game winning goal against the Senators with just 5.2 seconds left in regulation time. The Knights are 32-21-4 and have three wins in their last four games but prior to those four games they had just one win in their previous five. On the season, Vegas is averaging 3.16 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.91 goals per game. The Flyers blow at 17-28-10. They’re coming off a 4-3 win against the Flies on Saturday but they only have two wins in their last ten games and only have four wins in their last 25 games. Philly has really struggled this season on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of only 2.53 goals per game, fourth fewest in the NHL and allowing a ninth most in the league average of 3.42 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season, the Flyers got a surprising 4-3 win in Vegas on December 10th, getting outshot 44-25. I’d assume the Knights answer back with a win here in Philly today. I’ll go with a half unit each on the Vegas ML, Vegas TT over 3 and on the over 5.5 in this game.
Penguins vs. Panthers (7:00)
The Panthers blew out my Sabres last night in a 6-1 easy win (double winner for me on Florida in regulation and TT over 3.5) for their third straight win. Florida’s one of the best teams in the NHL at 38-13-5. They have the highest scoring offense in the league, averaging an impressive 4.13 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.88 goals per game. The Penguins are having a great season as well, coming into tonight’s game with a 34-14-9 record. They blew a 2-0 lead in the first period to lose 3-2 in overtime in Carolina on Friday night but were on a three game win streak prior to that. The Pens are very good on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 3.21 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL and allowing a fourth fewest in the NHL average of 2.58 goals per game. Both previous matchups between these teams this season needed more than 60 minutes to determine a winner and the home team winning with a 5-4 overtime win for Florida on October 14th and a 3-2 shootout win for the Penguins on November 11th. I think the Panthers are the better team in this game, but would slightly lean the Penguins win this one at home with Florida on the second half of a back to back. I’d also lean the over but with two good goaltenders in Tristan Jarry and Sergei Bobrovsky, I don’t think its worth betting on at 6.5 and juiced up to make buying it down to the alternate lines not worth it. To get some action on this game where I see some value, I’ll take this game to go to overtime at +350 (hit the last one of those props I bet) for .2 units.
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken (7:30)
I crushed last night’s Leafs game against the Blue Jackets, laddering up the over all the way from 6.5 to 9 goals as they won 5-4 (winning me 4.15 units). Toronto’s 36-16-4 on the year with four wins in their last six games and a 6-6-1 record in their last 13 games. They’ve been good offensively all season, scoring an average of 3.66 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL. They started the season great defensively with solid goaltending from Jack Campbell that got him into the All Star Game but that has plummeted more recently and they’re now allowing an average of 2.96 goals per game on the season. In the shorter term of their last nine games though, the Leafs have allowed an insane average of 4.56 per game, with many of those games against pretty lousy offenses. The Kraken’s inaugural season has sucked and they come into tonight’s game with a 17-36-5 record with only one win in their last ten games. They’ve sucked on both ends of the ice, scoring the fourth fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.53 goals per game and allowing a sixth most in the NHL average of 3.55 goals per game. In the first game ever between these teams a couple weeks ago on February 14th, the Leafs blew out the Kraken 6-2 in Seattle. The Leafs should win this game but on the second half of a back to back, it wouldn’t shock me to see an upset here for Seattle. Toronto’s been so inconsistent, especially defensively that they are in no way worth betting on a -280 (plus I’m retired from betting on them). I like the over on this game and will take the alternate over 6 for a unit and the 6.5 for half a unit to cut down on some juice.
Red Wings vs. Coyotes (7:30)
Both of these teams suck. The Coyotes are one of the worst teams in the NHL with a 16-35-4 record but they’ve played decent lately with three wins in their last four games (four in their last six games), coming into tonight’s game off back to back wins against Ottawa (8-5) on Saturday and Colorado (2-1) on Thursday. They have the lowest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging just 2.38 goals per game and have allowed a fifth most in the NHL average of 3.58 goals per game. The Red Wings are 24-26-6 on the year with a 16-11-3 record at home but they only have one win in their last five games. They’ve struggled on both ends of the ice this year too, scoring an eleventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.86 goals per game and allowing a third most in the NHL average of 3.61 goals per game. The first time these teams played this season, the Yotes won 2-1 in overtime at home in the desert on November 20th. This is a tough game to project for me. The Red Wings are the better team and play better at home but Arizona’s playing better (or getting luckier) recently. The over/under is tough to project as well since both teams have shitty offenses and shitty defenses. I’ll skip this shitty game entirely.
Blues vs. Senators (8:00)
The Sens are 19-31-5 on the season and have been playing horrible hockey lately, coming into tonight on a five game losing streak with just one win in their last eight games. They’re pretty bad on both ends of the ice, scoring an eighth fewest in the NHL average of 2.58 goals per game and allowing a tenth most 3.24 goals per game. The Blues let me down in all of their last three games, losing to the Devils, Isles and Rangers on the road. Prior to those three losses, they were on a 6-0-1 run and now sit at 32-16-7 in the standings. The Blues have been good on both ends of the ice, scoring a fifth most in the NHL average of 3.49 goals per game and they’ve allowed a sixth fewest in the NHL average of 2.71 goals per game. In their first game this season between these teams in Ottawa on February 15th, the Blues won 5-2. I like the Blues to win this game to end their three game losing streak at home tonight. I’ll take the Blues in regulation here a unit.
Predators vs. Stars (8:00)
These two teams are pretty similar to me and I’d expect this to be a pretty good game tonight. The Preds are 31-20-4 this season and come off an 8-0 blowout win in San Jose on Saturday night for their third win in their last five games. Nashville’s scoring an average of 3.13 goals per game and they’re allowing an average of 2.78 goals per game, eleventh fewest in the NHL. The Stars are 32-20-3 and on a four game win streak coming off a huge 6-3 win in Minnesota on Sunday afternoon (big winner for me on the over). They’re playing good hockey lately and in their last 19 games, they’ve got a 14-4-1 record. They have scored an average of 2.95 goals per game and allowed an average of 2.87 goals per game. This is the fourth game of the season between these teams and the Preds are 2-1 against the Stars with a 4-2 win in Dallas on November 10th, a 4-3 loss in Dallas on February 9th and a 2-1 shootout win at home on February 24th. I’d slightly give the edge to the Preds here tonight at home in Smashville but not enough to bet on it. I’d also slightly lean the under but not enough to bet that either so I’ll just lay off betting this game.
Wild vs. Rangers (8:00)
The Rangers are a very good team this season with a 36-15-5 record and coming into tonight’s game with three straight wins against the Jets, Devils and Blues. They have averaged 2.95 goals per game and have won on their defense and incredible goaltending from the almost guaranteed Vezina in Igor Shesterkin, as they’ve allowed an average of just 2.45 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL. Igor has the night off though tonight and we have the biggest drop off from starter to backup in the league tonight with Georgiev confirmed in net. He blows with a 3.05 GAA and an .897 save percentage. The Wild had a great start on the season and still have a solid record at 32-19-3 and a 16-6-1 record at home. They’ve been in a huge slump lately though with only one win in their last seven games. Minnesota has the third highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 3.69 goals per game but they’ve been bad defensively, allowing an average of 3.22 goals per game, eleventh most in the league. The first time these teams played this year on January 28th, the Wild won 3-2 in MSG. The Wild were playing much better hockey at that point in the season and the Rangers started Shesterkin that game. With Georgiev starting tonight, I’d slightly lean Minnesota at home but not enough to bet on it. I love the over though, expecting Georgiev to give up a ton of goals to the Wild offense and the Wild defense and Talbot have been bleeding away goals in their losing run lately. I’ll take the alternate over 6 in this game for 2 units.
Jets vs. Lightning (8:00)
The Bolts are an incredible team again that could definitely contend to win the Stanley Cup for the third straight year. They’re 37-12-6 on the season and after their easy 6-3 win in Chicago on Sunday night, they have seven wins in their last eight games. They’ve been very good on both ends of the ice, scoring a seventh most in the NHL average of 3.45 goals per game and allowing a ninth fewest in the NHL average of 2.75 goals per game. The Jets have been very inconsistent. They’re 24-22-10, coming off back to back home losses to the Rangers and Stars and just have two wins in their last eight games. Winnipeg’s scoring an average of 2.91 goals per game and they’ve allowed an average of 3 goals per game. Not great on either end. Tampa should get the win here on the road and I’ll take them for 1.5 units.
Blackhawks vs. Ducks (8:30)
I have almost no interest in this game. The Ducks started the season off hot and have definitely over exceeded expectations at 27-22-9 but haven’t been as great lately with four wins in their last eleven games. They’re scoring an average of 2.9 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.02 goals per game. The Blackhawks suck. They’re 20-29-8 and coming off a 6-3 loss at home to the Lightning that was never close on Sunday. They’ve only got five wins in their last 19 games. They have a terrible offense, scoring the third fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.47 goals per game and they’re allowing an eighth most in the NHL average of 3.44 goals per game with even Fleury not able to get them wins with his good play in goal. The first time these teams played this season, Chicago got a 3-0 shutout win at home on January 15. I’d slightly lean the Ducks here on the road and the under but not enough to bet on either of those so I’ll skip this game.
Flames vs. Capitals (9:00)
Last night in a grind of a game for the Battle of Alberta, the Flames capped off my night with a winner on their 3-1 victory at home against their rival Oilers. Calgary’s one of the hottest teams in the NHL recently with a 14-1-1 record in their last 16 games to improve to 34-14-7 on the season to lead the Pacific Division. They’re great on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 3.47 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL and allowing the second fewest goals in the league, just 2.44 goals per game on average. The Caps come into this game at 30-18-9 on the season off back to back wins at home against Seattle and Carolina but they have been ridiculously inconsistent. Stats wise they’ve been pretty good, scoring a tenth most in the NHL average of 3.21 goals per game and allowing an eighth fewest in the NHL average of 2.74 goals per game. These teams played in DC on October 23rd where the Flames got a 4-3 road win in overtime. Even on the second half of a back to back after last night’s win, I like the Flames to win this one again tonight at home and I’ll take them for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the over but not enough to bet it.
.5u Avalanche in regulation (-132)
1u Avalanche/Devils over 6 (-148)
.5u Avalanche/Devils over 6.5 (-113)
.5u Vegas ML (-175)
.5u Vegas TT over 3 (-180)
.5u Vegas/Philly over 5.5 (-143)
.2u Panthers/Penguins to go to OT (+350)
1u Leafs/Kraken over 6 (-148)
.5u Leafs/Kraken over 6.5 (-109)
1u Blues in regulation (-165)
2u Wild/Rangers over 6 (-148)
1.5u Tampa ML (-175)
.5u Calgary ML (-135)
Record: 531-377-20 (+22.4 units)