Course Breakdown

7245 yd Par 72, Pete Dye course so its a placement course, you need to miss in the right spots, all of the Par 5s are reachable in 2 by most so guys will get eagle looks, the 12th hole is also a risk/reward driveable Par 4 for eagle looks, 5 of the Par 4s are 450-500 yds, 17 water hazards (over 24 acres), 88 bunkers, overseeded Bermuda, narrow tree lined fairways with trouble in play on pretty much every tee shot, lot of mounds and undulation on the fairways, lots of different doglegs (a Pete Dye staple), average fairway % (~63%), average GIR % (~64%), less than driver course like most other Pete Dye courses (average driving distance: 278 yds), faster than average green speeds, very small and difficult multi-tier greens with a lot of undulation surrounded by water hazards and bunkers, most 3 putts of any non-major course on tour

Tournament Notes

• The “fifth major”
• In 2019 this tournament was moved from May to March and the course plays a bit slower than it did later in the season and changes the direction of the prevailing winds on the course
• Course history here could be tough to gauge on because if a player has one or two bad holes that could screw them for the whole week (like Paul Casey in 2019)
• Last year seven of the 15 golfers that came T10 here finished Top 20 for the year in bogie avoidance
• Usually elite players (Top 10/Top 20 in the world) win this tournament but there definitely are outliers like when Si Woo Kim won
• No defending champ has ever gone back to back here
• 9 of the last 11 winners had a T4 or better in a prior event that season on the year they won
• The last 14 winners here had a T23 or better finish here in a previous year
• SG Approach is over 2.5x more important than SG: OTT and SG: ATG (0.43 per round) to T10 finishes over the last 6 years
• Every winner here since 2010 (besides Si WOOOO Kim and JT last year) had either a T25 the week before or a T10 in their previous event played (Si Woo was 22nd, JT was 15th)
• 11 of the last 14 winners were T60 in Scrambling for the season that they won
• Weather is expected to be terrible this week in that area which could cause a lot more unpredictability but their drainage system is very good so the rain shouldn’t effect a ton besides being a bit more receptive, but the wind could play a big factor and it could be quite cold over the weekend 

Key Stats

SG Approach, Ballstriking, Par 4s Gained (450-500 yds), Bogie Avoidance

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yds (22.2%), 125-150 yds (19%), 150-175 yds (18.7%)

Corollary Courses

• Pete Dye courses: TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (The American Express), Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage) 
• PGA National (Honda Classic) – similar Florida conditions at this time of the year with overseeded Bermuda
• Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – 5 last 10 champs at the Wyndham also won THE PLAYERS (Davis Love III, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim, Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia), same Bermuda grass and lots of laying up off the tee

Field

144 golfers – Major strength field with all the best golfers in the world, huge purse so everyone plays

Defending Champion: Justin Thomas (-14)

Runner Up Last Year: Lee Westwood (-13)

One and Done: Daniel Berger

One and Done Considerations: Berger, Morikawa, JT

Players

Collin Morikawa: 10700: +1400 – T2,T18,T62 his last 3 events, 41st here last year, 9th in approach, 7th in ballstriking, 12th in SG: T2G, 11th in fairways gained, 69th in Par 3 scoring, 17th in Par 4 scoring, 33rd in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 31st in Par 5 scoring, 85th in SG: ARG, 83rd in putting, 6th in opportunities gained, 41st in birdies+ gained, 7th in bogey avoidance, 13th in proximity 125-150 yds, 8th in proximity 150-175 yds, 29th in proximity 200+ yds

Justin Thomas: 10400: +1400 – Last year’s champion, 6,8,20 finishes his last 3 events, 1,35,11,75,3,24 finishes here his last six times here, 6th in approach, 4th in ballstriking, 4th in SG: T2G, 115th in fairways gained, 37th in Par 3 scoring, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 12th in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 15th in Par 5 scoring, 37th in SG: ARG, 86th in putting, 1st in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdies+ gained, 39th in bogey avoidance, 1st in proximity 125-150 yds, 1st in proximity 150-175 yds, 14th in proximity 200+ yds

Scottie Scheffler: 9200: +2200 – won last week for his second win in the last 3 weeks, 1,7,1,20,25 finishes his last five events, MC here last year in his debut, 12th in approach, 18th in ballstriking, 10th in SG: T2G, 85th in fairways gained, 35th in Par 3 scoring, 7th in Par 4 scoring, 32nd in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 5th in Par 5 scoring, 19th in SG: ARG, 37th in putting, 27th in opportunities gained, 2nd in birdies+ gained, 9th in bogey avoidance, 25th in proximity 125-150 yds, 31st in proximity 150-175 yds, 35th in proximity 200+ yds, so cheap on Draftkings since the price was released before he won last week

Daniel Berger: 8800: +3000 – 4,MC (was injured),20 his last 3 events, hasn’t missed cut here since 2015, 9th last year and has 2 T10s here, 1st in approach, 3rd in ballstriking, 2nd in SG: T2G, 9th in fairways gained, 22nd in Par 3 scoring, 10th in Par 4 scoring, 23rd in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 55th in Par 5 scoring, 24th in SG: ARG, 122nd in putting, 44th in opportunities gained, 56th in birdies+ gained, 8th in bogey avoidance, 8th in proximity 125-150 yds, 11th in proximity 150-175 yds, 76th in proximity 200+ yds, my favorite play on the board for both betting and Draftkings pricing

Russell Henley: 7400: +5000 – 13,33,33,14,2 his five events this year, horrible course history here with 3 straight MCs here and 5 MCs in his 8 times here, 8th in approach, 20th in ballstriking, 11th in SG: T2G, 16th in fairways gained, 21st in Par 3 scoring, 9th in Par 4 scoring, 28th in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 41st in Par 5 scoring, 14th in SG: ARG, 66th in putting, 15th in opportunities gained, 8th in birdies+ gained, 46th in bogey avoidance, 60th in proximity 125-150 yds, 96th in proximity 150-175 yds, 106th in proximity 200+ yds

Luke List: 7200: +12500 – won Korn Ferry Tour event here last year, MC,MC,53,1,22 finishes his 5 events this year, 3 MCs and a 56 finish his 3 times at this tournament, 21st in approach, 6th in ballstriking, 3rd in SG: T2G, 108th in fairways gained, 83rd in Par 3 scoring, 17th in Par 4 scoring, 43rd in Par 4 scoring: 450-500 yds, 18th in Par 5 scoring, 6th in SG: ARG, one of the worst in the field (144th) in putting, 9th in opportunities gained, 11th in birdies+ gained, 56th in bogey avoidance, 73rd in proximity 125-150 yds, 96th in proximity 150-175 yds, 21st in proximity 200+ yds

Model

Approach (20%)

Ballstriking (10%)

SG: T2G (10%)

Fairways Gained (5%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yds (5%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained (5%)

Birdies+ Gained (5%)

Bogey Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• Soft “major” pricing on Draftkings so don’t worry about leaving money on the table
• 10 of the last 11 first round leaders here started in the AM wave

Bets

Outrights

.28u Scottie Scheffler (+2200)

.2u Daniel Berger (+3000)

.12u Russell Henley (+5000)

.06u Luke List (+12500)

T7s

.28u Scottie Scheffler (+440)

.2u Daniel Berger (+600)

.12u Russell Henley (+1000)

.06u Luke List (+2500)

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