Last night’s small four game NHL slate didn’t go great for me, going 1-4 and losing 4.07. That was pretty much all on the Wild and Jackets game not going over, but I know that was the right play. Today we have a pretty big ten game slate.
Predators vs. Blues (12:30)
The Blues got off of their four game losing streak with a big 6-2 win on Thursday against the Rangers (my under didn’t have a chance). They’re now 33-17-7 and have played very well on both ends of the ice this season. St. Louis is very good offensively this season, averaging 3.49 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL and they’ve been just as good on the other end of the ice, allowing a seventh most in the NHL average of 2.72 goals per game. Ville Husso’s been awesome with a 2.16 GAA and .930 save percentage, overtaking Jordan Binnington as the Blues starter. The Preds are playing good hockey this season with a 33-20-4 record and come into today’s game on a three game win streak. They’re averaging a decent 3.12 but they excel defensively, allowing a seventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.72 goals per game. Juuse Saros is one of the best goalies in the NHL and has a 2.38 GAA and .925 save percentage. These Central Division rivals have split their two previous games this season in St. Louis, with the Preds winning 4-3 in overtime on November 11th and the Blues winning 5-3 on January 17th. I think the Blues are the better team here but with this game in Smashville, I don’t see any edge in betting it. I’d slightly lean the over as well but not enough to bet on this matchup between two of this seasons best goaltenders in Saros and Husso to go over. I’ll skip this game but definitely will watch it.
Hurricanes vs. Flyers (3:00)
This game is a huge mismatch between the Canes and Flyers. Carolina’s a phenomenal hockey team this year with a 40-12-5 record with a 22-4-2 record at home and coming into today’s game on a three game win streak. They’ve been one of the top teams in the league on both ends of the ice, scoring an eighth most in the league average of 3.37 goals per game and leading the NHL in goals allowed, giving up an average of only 2.35 goals per game. The Flyers on the other hand have been awful this season. They’re 18-29-10 and they only have five wins in their last 27 games. Credit where its due though, in their last six games they’re 3-3. The Flyers have sucked on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of just 2.53 goals per game, second fewest in the NHL and allowing a ninth most in the NHL average of 3.42 goals per game. These teams have already played three times this season and have actually played closer than expected with the Canes going 2-1 in those games. The Flyers won their first matchup 2-1 in Carolina on November 12th, Carolina answered back with a 6-3 win in Philly on November 26th and then the Canes won again in overtime in Philly on November 21st. Carolina’s the way better team here and should win again at home, but its not worth betting on the ridiculous expensive ML at -345. I’ll lay the -200 for a unit on Carolina in regulation. I’d lean the under in this game, but not enough to bet on it with the season series between these teams trending over. I also considered the Canes TTs but they haven’t generated more than three goals in any of their last six games so I’ll stay off that as well.
Bruins vs. Coyotes (7:00)
The Coyotes are playing easily their best hockey of the year right now, coming into today’s game on a four game win streak after their 5-4 overtime win in Toronto on Thursday night. The Yotes have been one of the worst teams in the NHL this season at 18-35-4 but have five wins in their last six games. On the season they’ve been pretty bad on both ends of the ice, allowing a fifth most in the NHL average of 3.56 goals per game and scoring a third fewest in the NHL average of just 2.54 goals per game. In their last three games though, they’ve averaged over 7 goals per game in a 5-4 win against the Leafs, 9-2 win against the Red Wings and 8-5 win against the Sens. The Bruins have been awesome lately with an 8-1-1 record in their last ten games to improve to 35-18-5 on the season. They’ve been great defensively this season, allowing a fifth fewest in hockey average of 2.69 goals per game. They’ve scored an average of 3.02 goals per game. In their first game in Arizona this season on January 28th, the B’s won 2-1. I’d expect another win for the Bruins at home in this game tonight, but not enough for me to bet on them at the expensive price of -360 or even the -215 regulation line. I’d also lean the under but not enough to bet on it. I’ll skip this game.
Canadiens vs. Kraken (7:00)
These are two of the worst teams in the NHL facing off against each other. The Habs are the worst team in the league standings with a 15-35-7 record but they have played much better lately with seven wins in their last nine games as Martin St. Louis seems to be getting more out of his players since taking over behind the bench. On the season, Montreal’s been one of the worst teams in the NHL on both ends of the ice, scoring the fewest goals in hockey, an average of just 2.42 goals per game and allowing the most, a 3.81 per game average. In their last ten games though, they’ve scored at least 3 goals in nine of those games and the one that they didn’t, they beat the Senators 2-1. The Kraken haven’t been much better in their inaugural season, coming into today’s game with a 17-37-6 record on a four game losing streak with just one win in their last last twelve games. Stats wise they’ve only been slightly better than Montreal, scoring a fourth fewest in the NHL average of 2.57 goals per game and allowing a fourth most average of 3.6 goals per game. In their first ever matchup on October 26th in Seattle, the Kraken blew out the Habs 5-1. I’d lean Montreal wins this one at home tonight and I’d lean the over, but not enough to want to bet anything on this shitty matchup.
Senators vs. Blackhawks (7:00)
Another lousy game between two shitty teams. The Sens are coming off back to back wins against Seattle on Thursday and St. Louis on Tuesday after they’re five game losing streak but they haven’t been good this season at 21-31-5. They’ve been pretty bad both offensively and defensively. Ottawa has only averaged 2.63 goals per game, seventh fewest in the NHL and they’ve allowed a twelfth most average of 3.19 goals per game. Chicago’s 21-30-8 on the season with just six wins in their last 21 games. They’ve been even worse statistically than the Senators, scoring only a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 2.58 goals per game and allowing an eighth most in the NHL average of 3.44 goals per game. On November 1st, the Blackhawks beat the Sens 5-1 at home. I’d slightly lean the Blackhawks on the road with the edge of having Marc Andre Fleury in net alone and the over tonight but not enough to bet on either of them so I’ll just skip betting on this game.
Devils vs. Ducks (7:00)
The Devils haven’t had a great year at 21-32-5. Before their 2-1 loss to Winnipeg on Thursday, they had back to back wins against Colorado (5-3) and St. Louis (3-2) in overtime but in their last 19 games have only six wins. They’ve been horrible defensively with bad goaltending all season, allowing an average of 3.5 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. They have been decent offensively, averaging 3.03 goals per game and that’s been much better recently, in their last twelve games they’re scoring an average of 4.16 goals per game. The Ducks have definitely been better than expected this season at 27-24-9 with their young talent playing great this year. They haven’t been as good lately though with only four wins in their last 13 games. They’re scoring an average of 2.87 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.12 goals per game. In their first meeting this season on November 2nd in Anaheim, the Ducks shut the Devils with a 4-0 win. I like the Devils to answer back with a win here at home. I’ll go with a unit on the Devils ML and a unit on the Devils TT over 3.
Flames vs. Red Wings (7:00)
The Flames are the hottest team in the NHL at 35-15-7 with only three losses in their last 15 games and they’ve got a 17-5-5 record at home. Calgary has been great on both ends of the ice, scoring a sixth most in the NHL average of 3.49 goals per game and allowing the second fewest goals in hockey, an average of only 2.46 goals per game. The Red Wings suck, they’re 24-27-7 on the season and come into tonight’s game on a four game losing streak with only one win in their last seven games. On the season, they’ve scored an average of only 2.88 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. They’ve been way worse defensively though, allowing a second most in the NHL average of 3.72 goals per game. Recently that number has been even worse and in their last nine games they have allowed an insane average of 5.66 goals per game. The Flames got a 3-0 shutout win in Detroit on October 21st in the first meeting this season between these teams. I’d expect the Flames to blow out the Red Wings tonight at home. The -335 money is unbettable in any NHL matchup but I’ll take Calgary in regulation and Calgary TT over 3.5 for 1.5 units each.
Stars vs. Rangers (8:00)
The Rangers come into tonight’s game off back to back losses on Thursday in St. Louis (6-2) and Tuesday in Minnesota (5-2) but they’ve had a great season so far at 36-17-5. Igor Shesterkin is the best goalie in the NHL with a 2.02 GAA and .939 save percentage, the guaranteed Vezina this season and with that, the Rags are allowing a third fewest in the NHL average of 2.55 goals per game. They’ve scored an average of 2.91 goals per game. Dallas is 32-21-3 and they’ve been very good at home this season with a 20-7-1 record in American Airlines Center. They lost 2-1 in Nashville on Tuesday but prior to that game they were on a four game win streak and in their 20 games they have a 14-5-1 record. The Stars have also scored an average of 2.91 goals per game and they’ve allowed a twelfth fewest in the NHL average of 2.86 goals per game. These teams went to overtime in a 3-2 Stars win on October 14th at MSG. I’d give the Rangers the edge in this game solely on Igor in goal, but the Stars are playing solid hockey and they play better at home so I don’t really see any edge to betting on this game. I’d lean the under in this matchup but with both teams trending over, I don’t see an edge in betting on it.
Sharks vs. Kings (9:30)
These California teams played each other in LA on Saturday night and the Kings let me down as they lost 4-3 in overtime on a Tomas Hertl goal. The Sharks suck with only five wins in their last twenty games and are now 25-25-7 on the season. They’ve played quite poorly on both ends of the ice, scoring a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 2.57 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.16 goals per game. The Kings on the other hand have played quite well lately. They’re 32-19-8 on the year and in their last 18 games have a 12-3-3 record. Their offense hasn’t been great, averaging 2.9 goals per game but they’ve been awesome defensively, allowing a ninth fewest in the NHL average of 2.73 goals per game. Along with their 4-3 win on the Thursday, the Sharks also beat the Kings 6-2 at home on January 17th. I think the Kings are the way better team in this matchup and just don’t see SJ going 3-0 on the season series against them. Since the price is much cheaper in SJ tonight than it was on Thursday where I had laid -200 on them, I’ll take the Kings again tonight for a unit. Along with that, I’ll take the over for half a unit.
Oilers vs. Lightning (10:00)
The Lightning come into tonight’s game with back to back losses on their western Canada road trip taking back to back losses in Calgary on Thursday (4-1) and in Winnipeg on Tuesday (7-4). They’re having a great season this year at 37-14-6 and could contend for their third straight Cup as the two Florida teams are the favorites to come out of the East. The Bolts offense has scored a seventh most in the NHL average of 3.42 goals per game and they’ve allowed an eleventh fewest average of 2.84 goals per game. Tonight they’re starting Brian Elliot in goal though instead of Vasilevskiy and I don’t particularly trust Elliot. The Oilers are such an inconsistent team and coming off a 4-3 overtime win against the Caps on Wednesday that ended their three game losing streak, they’re now 31-23-4 on the year and have just a 3-5-1 record in their last nine games. Their offense has been good, scoring an eleventh most in the NHL average of 3.21 goals per game, with all of that offense driving through two of the best players in the world, Connor McDavid (81 points, 51 assists) and Leon Draisaitl (79 points, 38 goals). They’ve been terrible defensively and have bad goaltending, giving up an average of 3.21 goals per game, tenth most in the NHL. These teams just played a few weeks ago on February 23rd in Tampa where the Lightning won 5-3. The Bolts should win this game, and although I don’t love the idea of betting on Elliot against McJesus and Draisaitl, I feel like there’s enough value here at -134 to bet on them for half a unit. I do like the over a lot though, expecting both teams to be able to score and will take it for a unit.
1u Carolina in regulation (-200)
1u Devils ML (-157)
1u Devils TT over 3 (-180)
1.5u Calgary in regulation (-205)
1.5u Calgary TT over 3.5 (-186)
1u Kings ML (-134)
.5u Kings/Sharks over 5.5 (-122)
1u Oilers/Lightning over 6.5 (-129)
.5u Lightning ML (-134)
Record: 550-397-20 (+17.28 units)