Closed out yesterday’s NHL slate pretty shitty as I went 3-6 on the day for -4.99 units. Today we have another huge ten game slate, so let’s bounce back.
Penguins vs. Hurricanes (1:00)
I started off yesterday with a sweat on the Canes against the Flyers but ended up winning as they beat Philly 3-1 for their fourth straight win. Carolina’s a great team this season with a 41-12-5 record and they’ve got a 9-1-1 record in their last eleven games. The Penguins are having a great season as well with a 35-15-9 record coming off a big 5-2 win against Vegas on Friday night and have a 4-1-1 record in their last six games. Both of these teams have been really good on both ends of the ice. The Hurricanes are averaging 3.36 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL and they’ve allowed the fewest goals in hockey, an average of 2.33 goals per game. The Pens are right behind them in both of those stat categories, scoring a tenth most in the NHL average of 3.24 goals per game and allowing a fourth fewest in the NHL average of 2.59 goals per game. Carolina’s won both previous matchup between these teams this season by a goal, winning 4-3 in Pittsburgh on February 20th and 3-2 in overtime at home on March 4th. I’d lean the Penguins win today at home with the Canes on the second half of a back to back. I’d also lean the over but not enough to bet on either. I think this ends up being a close one goal game that ends 3-2 or 4-3 and will take those exact score props for .2 units each.
Sabres vs. Leafs (4:00)
The NHL goes back outdoors as the Sabres and Leafs face off in Hamilton, Ontario for the Heritage Classic. The Leafs are 37-16-5 on the season but have sucked lately with a 7-6-2 record in their last 15 games, coming off a 5-4 overtime loss at home against Arizona on Thursday. Toronto has a great offense, scoring an average of 3.71 goals per game, third most in the NHL. Recently they’ve been horrible defensively, getting the worst goaltending in the NHL since January 1st. They’ve allowed an average of 3.02 goals per game on the season and just in their last eleven games have allowed an average of 4.55 goals per game. Even when your offense is scoring a ton, its tough to keep up that pace every night when your team is regularly giving up 4-5 goals. Petr Mrazak is getting the bulk of work in net now since Jack Campbell out with injury and Mrazek has not been good, with a 3.44 GAA and .884 save percentage on the season. Blow Leafs Blow. The Sabres are coming off a huge 3-1 win against Vegas to ruin Jack Eichel’s return to Buffalo where former Golden Knights Peyton Krebs and Alex Tuck both scored. They’re not a good team at 19-32-8, they’ve got three wins in their last five games but those were their only wins in their last eleven games. Buffalo has struggled on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of just 2.63 goals per game, sixth fewest in the NHL and allowing a sixth most in the NHL average of 3.54 goals per game. These teams split their previous two games this season with the Sabres actually playing well in both games. The Leafs won 5-4 in Buffalo on November 13th with Morgan Reilly scoring the game winner with just twelve seconds left in regulation and then the Sabres embarrassed the Leafs 5-1 in Toronto on March 2nd. The Leafs should win this game with a pretty easy matchup against the Sabres, but I can’t see why anyone would bet on a team that’s been so inconsistent, especially with the price on the Leafs moneyline all the way at -320 today. I like the over on this game and will once again ladder it like I have been on Leafs games. I’ll take the over 6.5 for 2 units, the over 7 for a unit, over 7.5 for half a unit and over 8.5 for .2 units.
Flyers vs. Canadiens (7:00)
Both of these teams are two of the worst in the NHL. The Flyers are 18-30-10, coming off a 3-1 loss in Carolina yesterday (winner to start my day) and only have five wins in their last 28 games (they’re 3-4 in their last seven though). They’ve scored the second fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.5 goals per game and they’ve allowed a ninth most in the NHL average of 3.41 goals per game. The Habs are an even worse team at 15-35-8, coming off a 4-3 overtime loss against the Kraken last night. They have played better though recently since hiring Martin St. Louis and have a 7-2-1 record in their last ten games. Statistically on the season, they’re the worst team in the NHL on both ends of the ice, allowing an average of 3.79 goals per game and scoring an average of just 2.43 goals per game. They have scored at least three goals in ten of their last eleven games though, and they beat the Sens 2-1 in the one that they didn’t. The first time these teams played this season in Montreal on December 16th, the Habs won 3-2 in a shootout. I’d lean the Canadiens win this game again but not enough to bet on it in this shitty matchup with both teams on the second half of a back to back. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet on it. I’ll skip this game and probably won’t even watch a minute of it.
Blue Jackets vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
Vegas has been a pretty lousy team lately without Mark Stone in the lineup, coming into tonight’s game on a three game losing streak and although they’re 32-24-4 on the season, they only have a 4-8-1 record in their last 13 games. The Knights are scoring an average of 3.07 goals per game on the season but in their last 13 games, they’ve averaged less than 2 goals per game. They’ve allowed an average of 2.93 goals per game. Since Robin Lehner is out with injury, the Knights are starting Logan Thompson in goal tonight for just his second NHL start. The inconsistent 29-27-3 Blue Jackets ended their four game losing streak with a 3-2 win in a shootout against Minnesota on Friday in a game that had no business of staying under but it did. Columbus has a decent offense, averaging 3.2 goals per game, twelfth most in the NHL but they’re one of the worst teams in the NHL defensively, allowing a third most in the NHL average of 3.66 goals per game. The first time these teams played, the Knights won 3-2 at home on November 20th. I’d lean Vegas wins this game again, but not enough to bet on it with Thompson starting and how lousy they’ve played lately. I do like the over though which I will take the over 6 in this game for a unit.
Blues vs. Jets (7:00)
This should be a fun game tonight. The Blues coming into tonight’s game with a 34-17-7 record on back to back wins against the Rangers on Thursday (6-2) and Nashville (7-4) yesterday afternoon. They’ve been one of the best teams in the NHL on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 3.55 goals per game, fifth most in the league and allowing just a seventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.74 goals per game. The Jets are 26-23-10 this season and have been quite inconsistent. They’ve scored an average of 2.95 goals per game and are allowing an average of 3.02 goals per game. Winnipeg is 2-1 on the season against the Blues, seemingly matching up quite well against them even though it doesn’t look like they should. It took till a shootout in their first game this season for the Blues to win 3-2 on November 9th and then the Jets won 4-2 at home November 19th and 4-1 in St. Louis on January 29th. I’d lean the Blues win this game at home but on the second half of a back to back and with how well Winnipeg has played against them, I don’t see any edge in betting this game. I’d also lean the over but not enough to bet it with now of their previous three games going over 6.
Wild vs. Predators (7:00)
Yesterday afternoon the Preds lost 7-4 at home to the Blues which ended their three game win streak. They’re having a good season at 33-21-4 and have a 5-3 record in their last eight games. Nashville’s averaging 3.14 goals per game and have allowed a tenth fewest in the NHL average of 2.79 goals per game behind their phenomenal goalie Juuse Saros. On the second half of a back to back though, they’re likely starting their lousy backup David Rittich tonight giving Saros the night off. Rittich sucks with a 3.17 GAA and .890 save percentage. The Wild are 34-19-4 on the season but have been pretty terrible lately with just three wins in their last ten games. Like the Leafs, they’ve been great offensively, scoring a fourth most in the NHL average of 3.7 goals per game but they’ve been awful defensively, allowing an eleventh most in the NHL average of 3.21 goals per game. In the first game between these two teams that are just two points apart for the third Central Division playoff slot, the Predators beat the Wild 5-2 in Minnesota on October 24th. I’d slightly lean the Wild win this one again tonight just based on Rittich starting for the Preds, but not enough to bet on it. I like the over in this game which I’ll take for 1.5 units.
Islanders vs. Ducks (7:30)
The Islanders are such a disappointing team this season at 23-24-8 but have played decently their last few games with four wins in their last seven games and playing competitively in those three losses against Colorado (twice) and Vancouver. All year the Isles have been a good team defensively, allowing a sixth fewest in the NHL average of 2.71 goals per game. They haven’t been able to produce much at all offensively though, scoring a ninth fewest in the NHL average of 2.67 goals per game. The Ducks are on a three game losing streak with only four wins in their last 14 games to drop down to 26-24-10 on the season. They haven’t been spectacular on either end of the ice, scoring an average of 2.84 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.08 goals per game. In their first game between each other in Anaheim on February 27th, the Isles shut out the Ducks 4-0. I’d lean the Isles win this game but not enough to lay the -185 price on them. I’d also lean the under but not enough to bet it.
Avalanche vs. Flames (8:00)
This is easily the best game on today’s slate between two of the top teams in the NHL. in a rematch of arguably the best game of the season last Saturday where the Flames won 4-3 in overtime at home. The Avalanche are 41-13-5 on the season but have played their worst stretch of the year recently with only one win in their last five games. They’ve been great at home with a 23-3-3 record in Ball Arena this season. Their offense is incredible and they’re second in the NHL in scoring, averaging 3.85 goals per game. Their defense and goaltending has improved and they’re allowing an eleventh fewest in the NHL average of 2.86 goals per game. Calgary’s the hottest team in the NHL. They’re 36-15-7 on the season and have a 16-2-1 record in their last 19 games after a 3-0 shutout win against Detroit last night. The Flames have allowed the second fewest goals in hockey, an average of only 2.41 goals per game and they’ve scored a sixth most in the NHL average of 3.48 goals per game. I’d slightly lean the Flames win this game but on the second half of a back to back and with how good Colorado’s been at home but not enough to bet on it. I have to get some action on this game and will take the alternate over 6 for half a unit.
Canucks vs. Lightning (10:00)
Last night the Bolts let me down as they lost 4-1 in Edmonton for their third straight loss. They’re a great team still riding their heater of the last two season where they won back to back Stanley Cups. They’re 37-15-6 this year and along with the Panthers are one of the top contenders coming out of the Eastern Conference this season. They’ve been really good on both ends of the ice, scoring an average of 3.38 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL and allowing an eleventh fewest average of 2.86 goals per game. The Canucks are a really solid team too that has completely transformed under Bruce Boudreau with now a 29-23-7 record and have an 8-2-1 record in their last eleven games. They’ve been great defensively, tied with Tampa for the eleventh fewest goals allowed in the NHL, an average of 2.86 goals per game. Offensively, they’re averaging just 2.86 goals per game on the season but they haven’t struggled to score, averaging 4.38 goals per game in their last 13 games. On January 13th in Tampa, the Bolts beat the Canucks 4-2. I’d lean Tampa here on the road since they are a much better, balanced team but with the Bolts on the second half of a back to back on a long road trip, I don’t see enough of an edge to bet on it. I’d also lean the under which should be a great goaltending battle between Vasilevskiy and Demko, but not enough to bet on.
Kings vs. Panthers (10:00)
The Florida Panthers all season have been one of the best in the NHL, leading the Atlantic Division with a 40-13-5 record. They come into tonight’s game on a five game win streak. The Panthers have the highest scoring offense in the NHL, scoring an average of 4.16 goals per game and have scored six goals in three of their last four games. They’ve allowed an average of 2.88 goals per game. The Kings were completely flat in their game last night in SJ, losing 5-0 to their in state rivals in a back to back home and home. They’re have a good season at 32-20-8 and have been particularly hot lately with a 12-4-3 record in their last 19 games. They’ve been really good defensively with solid goaltending from both Quick and Petersen, allowing an eighth fewest in the NHL average of 2.77 goals per game. LA hasn’t been great offensively though, averaging just 2.85 goals per game, twelfth fewest in the NHL. The first time these teams played in Florida this season on December 16th, the Kings surprisingly got a 4-1 win. I’d expect the opposite to happen tonight with the Panthers winning. I’ll take Florida in regulation for half a unit and the over for half a unit.
.2u Exact Score: Penguins 3-2 (+1300)
.2u Exact Score: Penguins 4-3 (+1500)
2u Leafs/Sabres over 6.5 (-110)
1u Leafs/Sabres over 7 (+143)
.5u Leafs/Sabres over 7.5 (+205)
.2u Leafs/Sabres over 8.5 (+310)
1u Vegas/Columbus over 6 (-136)
1.5u Wild/Predators over 6.5 (-108)
.5u Calgary/Colorado over 6 (-143)
.5u Florida in regulation (-143)
.5u Florida/Kings over 6.5 (-110)
Record: 553-403-20 (+12.29 units)